Wild Card (Round), Bitches
Saturday, 4:30 PM ET: Saints (-10.5) @ Seahawks
Every single possible urge I have is telling me to go with the Saints because they are definitely the better team overall. But will they be the better team in this particular game? The Saints come into this one four games better than their opponent at 11-5 and — in case you seem to have forgotten like everyone else — are still the defending champions. You can be sure they’re looking to repeat, too. But there’s just something about this game that has me uneasy. Never underestimate the disrespect factor, as it’s surely something the Seahawks will use to motivate them. Oh, so you don’t think we belong in the playoffs? We’ll show you! Weird things have happened with seemingly undeserving playoff teams in the first round in the past (remember in 2004 when both the 8-8 Rams and 8-8 Vikings won their games? How about the 8-8 Chargers over the Colts in 2008?). The Seahawks are still at home, in a stadium that has been proven to have an effect on games, and that makes them dangerous. Please, understand, I’m not forgetting how terrible the Seahawks are; it’s an insult to the sport of football and makes a mockery of the concept of the playoffs that all nine of their losses have come by at least 15 points. That’s a total disgrace. While there’s no question that on the road the Seahawks are an embarrassment and shoe-in to get their asses handed to them, at home they’re actually a respectable 5-3 (although only one of those wins came against a team over .500, the disappointing Chargers in Week 3).
Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/) presented an interesting statistic — while a guest on Bill Simmons’ podcast — showing that Matt Hasselbeck is the exact kind of quarterback that thrives against a blitz-happy defense like New Orleans. If Charlie Whitehurst plays, all that advanced statistics crap in favor of the Seahawks goes out the window, and the likelihood of Seattle getting destroyed multiplies by infinity. Fast forward to Thursday, when the question is not only whether Hasselbeck will be healthy enough to play, but if he will also get the start over Clipboard Jesus (copyright Bill Simmons). Hasselbeck’s had a terrible, injury-plagued season, but I’ll let his respectable track record sway me one more time (even though it shouldn’t because he hasn’t a had good season since 2007). Regardless, the Seahawks decided today to give the veteran the starting nod, and it’s the right decision. You know why? Well, first because Charlie Whitehurt sucks, despite what you may have seen against the Rams in one of the worst primetime games of all time. But, really, because Hasselbeck deserves it after the time he’s put in with that franchise — he led them to their only Super Bowl, remember? I forgive you if you don’t. This team has no chance of going on a serious run in the playoffs anyway, so you might as well live and die with the best quarterback in your team’s history (ouch). If you believe in a thing called loyalty, that is.
Seriously, look at Seattle’s offensive and defensive rankings — both in the bottom third of the league in every significant category (except for passing offense, which makes the cutoff by the thinnest of margins at #19). Still, I don’t know, I just have one of those weird feelings. The Saints just lost their two best pure running backs in Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory for the playoffs, leaving Reggie Bush and Julius Jones to carry the load. While the offense ranked a paltry 28th in the league in rushing, Sean Payton still likes to have the option of establishing the run against a team to make the potent passing attack even more devastating. Pierre Thomas is the Saints’ best RB overall, and Chris Ivory has been the best for them this season, while Bush has never been successful as a rusher and Julius Jones officially exited his very average prime over two years ago. If the Saints are forced to be one dimensional and go with the pass all game, that at least allows the Seattle defenders to pin their ears back and go after Drew Brees, who is playing out of his mind right now, by the way. That much-maligned Seahawks defense is going to have to force a few turnovers and give the offense a short field once or twice.
On the other hand, the Saints have one of the most underrated defenses in the game, at least in terms of yardage allowed per game (fourth overall). It’s funny, the defense is a lot stingier than last year, but it’s not forcing nearly the number of turnovers (in the bottom third of the league in this category) that made it so lethal. If Hasselbeck/Clipboard Jesus and friends can take care of the football, the Seahawks have a real shot in this game.
It’s crazy, I think Sean Payton is the second-best coach in the league and would give anything for him to lead my team, yet I’m not picking the defending Super Bowl champions to win. I’m trying out the new tactic of going against my gut instinct when picking games. So, based on that, I’ll pick the Seattle Seahawks to shock the football world, 24-23. On a last-second field goal, too, courtesy of the immortal Olindo Mare, formerly of Miami Dolphins’ lore.
Saturday, 8 PM ET: Jets @ Colts (-2.5)
Count me among those who do not believe in the Jets. At all. Yes, I fully admit there’s some bias here because I can’t stand them and the unearned arrogance that makes those frauds so incredibly annoying. Even when I look at the Jets objectively, I see a team I don’t trust enough on offense or defense. I definitely don’t trust Mark Sanchez, master of the should-have-been-intercepted pass, and the defense has not been as dominant as last year (despite still being one of the best in the league statistically). Then Jim Leonhard was lost for the season to a freak injury that occurred during practice the week before the second Patriots game. Since that devastating injury to their defensive quarterback, the Jets have looked more vulnerable against both the run and pass.
In contrast, Peyton Manning is one of the best to ever play the position, and he’s handled both the Jets and Rex Ryan (last year and during his time with the Ravens) before. He is smarter — and less of creepy pervert — than Ryan and has torched Mr. ihaveprettyfeet’s defenses each of the last four times they’ve squared off, dating back to Rex’s days as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator (QB ratings from those four games: 123.6, 95.7, 134.7, 157.5). Despite a dearth of weapons on offense due to a ridiculous Red Sox-like injury list, Manning has made viable NFL players out of unheralded prospects like Blair White and Jacob Tamme, and still has the dangerous duo of Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon at WR. Furthermore, there was a more serious commitment to the run on offense during the Colts’ four-game win streak to finish the season, which in turn loosened up the defense a bit for Manning to take advantage. Just look at his cumulative stats from the last four games: 66.8 CMP%, 991 YDS, 9 TD, 2 INT, 101.2 rating (skewed by a 76.9 effort against the Raiders in Week 16). Now, with Joseph Addai finally healthy again, the Colts have a legitimate RB to whom Peyton can hand off the ball.
Quick interlude: As an aside, I have to point out that Dominic Rhodes, at age 31 and having last played in the NFL in 2008 before being signed off the street a few weeks ago, has come in these last three weeks and given this rushing attack a respectable boost. Added to the fact that Edgerrin James’s cousin, Jarvarris James, was the team’s goal line back for a period of time this season, and it’s been another interesting year for the Colts at the running back position.
Indy’s defense has really stepped up its game over the last four weeks, too. It’s a smaller unit that relies on speed, quickness, and swarming the football. The Jets want to establish the run, which is something the Indy defense has excelled at shutting down recently. If Dwight Freeney and friends can continue to play that way and succeed in disrupting the Jets’ running game, I think the Colts are going to win this game (and do so rather easily). Make Mark Sanchez beat you through the air… he won’t.
Anyway, look for big games from Tamme and White, who will get more looks with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie covering Wayne and Garcon. The Colts defense has played well over the last month of the season, and, again, I don’t believe in Sanchez. Of course, if the Jets’ defense confounds Manning and Sanchez plays like he did at the start of last year’s playoffs or through the first four games of this season, I’ll look like a moronic blowhard of an asshole. Still, I’ll take my chances. I think the future Hall-of-Famer shows the youngster a thing or two about how a truly elite quarterback performs and leads his team to victory. I’m taking the Colts, 30-17. By the way, this is the only game where I trusted my gut. We’ll see if it ends up failing me again.
Related note concerning the Jets: If you’re following the hilariously humiliating story about Rex Ryan, his wife, and their foot fetish videos, it’s only about to get worse (or better, depending on how you view the situation). There are photos circulating around the Internet of Michelle Ryan (alias: ihaveprettyfeet) in sexually suggestive positions, doing sexually explicit things… some involving those famous feet of hers. She may or may not be nude in a handful of them. You can find the photos in question with a little bit of diligent research on Google (hint: search for “Media Take Out” and “Michelle Ryan”). So, what we’re now learning is that this disturbing foot fetish obsession is anything but PG-13, as Rex claimed. He and his wife are, in fact, kinky swingers very popular in the underground world of virtual foot lovers everywhere. And, for reasons probably related to erotic stimulation that I’d rather not think about, the two decided it would be a good idea to film their smutty foot videos. In an even dumber move, the happy couple (who have kids, by the way) somehow let these videos get on the Internet, as if nobody would find them and expose their secret lives. Idiots. I mean, how likely is it that there are videos of Rex Ryan filming — and/or masturbating — while watching two (maybe more, if they’re into running train) black dudes double-team his wife before finishing on her feet? It’s almost a certainty. I can only imagine what comes out next. Oh well, at least this isn’t as bad as Ryan’s objectionable language on Hard Knocks. The truth is stranger than fiction, right?
Yeah, the Jets are definitely losing.
Quote of the Day: “I can take everything, and I have,” courtesy of Rex Ryan, in response to questions about both the ongoing ridicule concerning his perverted private life and all the freaky stuff he’s done during free-for-all foot fetish trysts (the second part is a joke… I think).
Sunday, 1 PM ET: Ravens (-3) @ Chiefs
Believe it or not, this was the hardest game for me to call. As someone who’s lived in Maryland, I must admit that I’ve taken a bit of a liking to the Ravens. I guess they’d be my AFC team, if I had one. That said, this is a team that leaves a lot to be desired when you look at the talent on both sides of the ball, and despite an impressive 12-4 record, hasn’t exactly won many games convincingly. On offense there are finally guys who can make plays, and I’ve always had this weird, unjustified confidence in Joe Flacco. Yet, for some reason, no one seems to make plays consistently, and that’s why this offense scored 20 points or less in 10 of the team’s 16 games this season. It doesn’t make any sense, but something just isn’t working. I don’t watch every Ravens game, so I’d need an actual fan to give me his/her opinion.
While the offense sputters and searches for an identity, the defense hasn’t lost the nasty personality that made it a universally feared unit for most of the past decade. No, this isn’t one of the stupidly dominant Ravens’ defenses of years past, but it still has the playmakers — Reed, Ngata, Suggs, Lewis — to totally disrupt your game plan and beat up your best players. Like the offense, however, something seems to be just a little off. The Ravens tied for 27th out of 32 teams with 27.0 sacks, were 21st against the pass (but fifth against the run), and ranked in the bottom half of defenses in turnovers forced (though Reed has eight picks in the 10 games he’s played) — yet still only allowed 16.9 points/game, third fewest in the league. The whole team is just an enigma wrapped inside a wealth of talent… wrapped inside a unibrow. All I know is any defense with those four aforementioned Pro Bowlers will always scare the living shit out of me, regardless of what the statistics say.
Every fiber of my being says to go with the battle-tested Ravens over the green Chiefs, but there’s something about Kansas City hosting its first playoff game in seven years that I’m going to let sway me in the end. The defense doesn’t force many turnovers (22nd in the league) and is middle of the pack against both the run (14th) and pass (17th), but it’s 12th in sacks (Tamba Hali leads the way with 14.5 — second in the league — and will be after Flacco all game) and yards allowed per game. In other words, it’s an average unit that would probably get beaten by a high-powered offense — which is what the Ravens should be. Offensively, it would seem like a daunting matchup for the Chiefs, which ranks first in rushing (and 30th in passing), to go up against a Ravens defense that is notoriously tough against the run. One thing for certain, though, is that no one on the Ravens roster can cover Dwayne Bowe (who is listed as questionable with an illness). If Bowe doesn’t play, I don’t see the Chiefs pulling out the win, which would be the franchise’s first in the playoffs in — get this — 17 years! Let’s go ahead and say Bowe finds a way to suit up for the most important game of his professional career thus far. If that’s the case, the Ravens will have to devote Ed Reed to shadowing him all game, which would in turn open things up a bit more in the middle of the field for the passing offense. Prior to a shitty outing in Week 17, Cassell was quietly having a Pro Bowl-caliber season and at one point a few weeks ago was ranked fourth in the league in QB rating. He still finished with 27 touchdowns and only seven interceptions, and did so despite only passing for more than 300 yards in two games. I’m really intrigued with this game overall and want to see how Cassell handles whatever the Ravens’ defense throws at him.
Somehow, I haven’t even mentioned Jamaal Charles or Ray Rice, who I’ve been told can play a bit. Both are liable to explode at any time and pretty capable of carrying their respective teams to victory. I’m sure you’ll hear a lot of people referencing the Chiefs’ 7-1 record at home as something to consider when predicting this game, and that’s certainly a legitimate point because of the atmosphere inside that stadium. Just keep in mind that only one of those wins came against a team over .500 (those Chargers again). Ah, whatever. Fuck it, I’m going with the Chiefs, 20-17. Patriots fans everywhere are praying I’m right because Baltimore is the one team that really scares them.
Sunday, 4:30 PM ET: Packers @ Eagles (-2.5)
I’m pretty sure this is the consensus most anticipated game of the entire weekend. And it should be. Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, two good yet also somehow terrible head coaches, all that talent on both teams. It has all the makings to be an awesome game. All the pundits can’t hop on the collective dick of Rodgers and the Packers fast enough — yeah, we get it, they’re really dangerous and have as good a chance as any team to come out of the NFC. Everyone just slow down for a second. It’s not like the Packers are this unquestionably elite team. They come in having clinched the final playoff berth by unimpressively beating an uninspired — I don’t care what the players or coaches say to the contrary — Bears team, 10-3, at Lambeau. Still, even with all their injuries on offense, Rodgers and Greg Jennings — along with Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson; it’s going to be quite a challenge for the Eagles to match up against the Packers’ spread sets that include four and five wide receivers — have found a way to get it done. Let’s also not forget about the man, the myth, the legend, John Kuhn (FROM… Shippensburg*), who always comes ready for primetime. But, mainly, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, and he’s good enough to beat you on his own, especially when your defense is as shaky as the one the Eagles sport at the moment. We have three recent seventh rounds picks (two rookies and one second-year player) currently starting on defense, at strong side linebacker (Moise Fokou), middle linebacker (Jamar Chaney), and free safety (Kurt Coleman). Somehow, all three have proven themselves to be pretty good at certain parts of the game amidst this baptism by fire. Regardless, it’s a lot to ask from guys who were initially viewed as depth players. The fact that Fokou, Chaney, and Coleman haven’t been total liabilities is a testament to either really good scouting or really good luck. Probably a little bit of both. This Eagles defense has some talent (and Asante Samuel always comes to play in the playoffs), but right now it’s leaking a shitload of oil and just trying to hang on. I hope the players that are actually playing use all the immense disrespect coming from a national audience as motivation and come out with a chip on their shoulder. It’s what makes a player like Tom Brady so great. I’m hoping I didn’t just compare this current Eagles defense with Tom Brady. Then again, I really don’t care.
*Big year for Shippensburg in the NFL. John Kuhn is a folk hero in Green Bay, and Atlanta’s Brent Grimes is the best cornerback in the league you’ve never heard of. He’s also just one of the best, period.
I’m about to make an impassioned plea to Andy Reid to give the ball as much as possible to his most dangerous weapon on offense, LeSean McCoy. It’s like when the Eagles had McNabb, Owens, and Westbrook. McNabb and T.O. got all the publicity, but Brian Westbrook was the player that every defensive coordinator had to scheme against. They even said so themselves. LeSean “Shady” McCoy is the Brian Westbrook to Michael Vick’s McNabb and DeSean Jackson’s T.O. Just give Shady the ball and let him do his thing. Please. At least 20 carries and 5-10 more touches in the receiving game. PLEASE. He’s so good, and the best way to lessen the beating Vick takes is to utilize the run game and feed Shady the rock consistently. I mean, have you seen some of the highlight runs he’s broken this season? Come on. Establishing the run can be a very useful weapon for any offense, especially one like the Eagles’ that loves the vertical passing game. Let those lovable behemoths up front control the line of scrimmage, while unleashing a steady dose of Shady on the defense. Sprinkle in some Jerome Harrison, too, as the defense starts to wear down. Not committing to the run is really unfair to the running backs and offensive linemen. Don’t worry, the players won’t be mad… actually, I bet they’ll be positively giddy about it, go ahead and ask them. Also, those long, play-action pass plays that Andy and Marty Mornhinweg* like to call will have more time to develop with the threat of a viable, dangerous running game. Really, I just want to see my team line up and impose its will on the opponent. The final four minutes of the second Dallas game was by far the most satisfying — and depressing — moment of the season for me because it proved to me that we can run the ball, the powers that be just choose not to. Shit, we’re third in the whole league in rushing yards per game! But most of those don’t happen by design (see: Vick escaping pressure and scrambling). Reid constantly eschews a balanced attack, even when the passing game isn’t working and his quarterback is getting hit on every play… because he can be an infuriating asshole when he wants to be.
*(potential future head coach of the Cleveland Browns, by the way; which reminds me, read this article if you haven’t already come across it: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=4797666.
You need to have ESPN Insider to gain access. If you don’t have Insider yet, get it.)
Andy Reid, to a fault, has always been stubborn as a mule, and he’ll never waiver from his belief that you win with the pass. You can definitely win with the pass, but all Reid has to do is look at the teams that have most recently won Super Bowls to discover a little something about what an effective ground game can do:
2009 Saints - 52/48 pass/run ratio
2008 Steelers - 52/48
2007 Giants - 54/46
2006 Colts - 56/44
2005 Steelers - 41/59
2004 Patriots - 48/52
Except for the 2005 Steelers, each of those teams was pretty balanced. It’s not unusual to see the Eagles go with a 60/40 pass/run ratio, and often it’s more extreme than that (don’t be fooled by the overall 57/43 ratio this season). They’ve been doing it for the better part of slightly over a decade now, and while having success in the regular season and playoffs isn’t something to simply scoff at, why do you play the game? To win Super Bowls. Right? That’s the only thing missing from making this franchise actually as elite as the owner and front office likes to think it is already. They talk about being among the “Gold Standard” in the league, except they’re the only member of that group without a shiny Lombardi Trophy. As of right now, the Eagles aren’t thought of as the “Gold Standard,” as much as big-game chokers that have always been good but not quite good enough. So, fellas, back up all the talk and finally win the organization’s first Super Bowl (not a bad season to do it, either, with this being the 50th anniversary of the last Eagles team to win a championship). Can we at least try to establish the ground game, just to see if it works? I’m hoping Andy Reid has an epiphany — a religious experience of sorts where Joseph Smith, Jr. and Brigham Young work in concert to convince him that the run game is the key to both victory and leading an exemplary Mormon life — and decides to use the run game to his advantage. I’m telling you, give Shady enough carries and he’s bound to break a few long gains. Andy, it’s difficult to type while I’m on my knees begging and pleading with you to run the football. It shouldn’t have to be like this, I don’t care how pretty it looked when Joe Montana and Brett Favre won Super Bowls. Times have changed, and Reid has to finally nut up and do the one thing that’s been a constant bugaboo his entire coaching career: adjust. Just fucking adjust your game plan to get favorable matchups — actually practice what you preach and put your players in better positions to make plays. Now is not the time to try and satisfy that ego of yours, dude — it’s about protecting your starting quarterback from getting injured further and winning in the playoffs. So, which is more important, the health of your own players, or attempting to vindicate your offensive philosophy? If Andy doesn’t learn this time around, he never will. The Packers run defense isn’t anywhere near as good as the rest of the unit and ranked 24th overall in the league (19th in yards per carry allowed at 4.7). I know I’m not a coach or anything, but I think that might be a weakness the Eagles should try to exploit. If, you know, they’re actually trying to win the game.
That Packers pass rush, though, with Clay Matthews, Cullen Jenkins, and B.J. Raji combining for 27 sacks (out of the defense’s total of 47, second overall), is devastating in general — the effect is only magnified when they don’t have to worry about a team running the ball. If Michael Vick is asked to drop back time and time again, he’s going to be a sitting duck, especially with that troublesome quadriceps injury that limits his mobility… and he will be killed. That’s a guarantee. As suspect as the Packers are against the run, they are one of the best in the league against the pass, ranking fifth overall. Look at their secondary…
Charles Woodson: He has found the fountain of youth in Green Bay and is putting together a serious Hall of Fame resume. At 33 last year, he won the Defensive Player of the Year Award. This season, at 34, Woodson is still in the midst of playing the best football of his life at a position that very much belongs to the game’s younger talent. Just look at the stats… http://espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=1442. It’s utterly amazing to me that he’s playing at such an elite level so late in his career, and that I got to see him play at the Big House in 1997 during the season he won the Hesiman Trophy while leading Michigan to a Rose Bowl win and national championship (sort of) in the final season before the BCS system was implemented.
Nick Collins: Three-time Pro Bowler (including this year) and still one of the most underrated safeties in the league. Trust me, you may not know who he is, but the Pro Bowls haven’t been earned solely on reputation instead of current performance (looking at you, Jason Peters).
Tramon Williams: Quietly leads the team with six interceptions and is perfectly comfortable playing in Woodson’s shadow as the team’s second starting cornerback. This is Williams’ third solid season in a row — oddly, his stats have pretty much been identical each year. He’s always around the ball.
Charlie Peprah: The other safety and probably the weakest link among the starting four… and he’s pretty good in his own right. It’s more a statement about the quality of the secondary than anything else.
And last, but not least, Frank Zombo… who doesn’t play in the secondary at all (linebacker, actually) but has one of the coolest names in football. Only a rookie (undrafted, too), he looks to have a pretty bright future in this league.
Anyway, back to the game. If the Eagles have a run/pass ration anywhere from 45/55 to 50/50, I think they win. The best defense in a game like this is a good offense — one that ideally can hold onto the ball for at least ~35 minutes. Just chew up clock and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible (you know, like the Packers did against the Patriots when Mike Flynn started; it’s only because Tom Brady is Tom fucking Brady, Bill Belichick is Bill fucking Belichick, and the Patriots are the fucking Patriots that they were able to turn 19:12 of time of possession into a win). This Eagles defense is very vulnerable to the pass, and with all the trouble the unit has had getting pressure on the opposing quarterback recently, a guy like Rodgers (who, by the way, loves to face the blitz and has something like a 110 quarterback rating against it) will absolutely torch them. Please, for the love of God, listen to me. I hate having to see the same shit year in and year out, especially because it always ends with losing in excruciating fashion and makes me want to jump out of a window. (Further reading on the topic: http://www.csnphilly.com/01/05/11/Reid-must-resist-temptation-to-ignore-th/landing_eagles.html?blockID=385526&feedID=692)
Oh, and what kind of odds can I get that one of Andy Reid or Mike McCarthy will make a boneheaded coaching/strategic decision that’s going to cripple his own team and have a major effect on the outcome of the game? Going against my gut again, both with the winner and how they’ll emerge victorious — with a balanced attack on offense. I’m picking the Eagles to flip the score from the first game of the season and win, 27-20, thus reaffirming my belief in karma in the process.
Just occurred to me that I happened to take all the home teams. So be it. I’ll write something again after the games are over and I’m 0-4 with my predictions.
PS - Don’t forget about the new overtime rules going into effect for these playoffs.
