Why Angel Pagan is a Better Signing than Michael Bourn

David Murphy over at High Cheese touched on this two weeks ago, but I thought I’d take it a step further. Please, Ruben, don’t do anything rash and stupid this offseason. The last thing this team needs is for you to go out and give another unnecessary, overpriced contract to one of the most hyped free agents on the market. It’s not smart, and it’s not a cost-effective strategy. If anything, most of the time the ramifications of the decisions don’t yield desired results. The Phillies need to resist the urge to sign Michael Bourn to the, what, six-year, $80 million contract that Scott Boras will demand? I know everyone is popping wood over possibly bringing him “home,” but let’s look at this objectively. Bourn is having a career year, it doesn’t mean he’s destined for more. He still strikes out way too much for a leadoff hitter, turns 30 in December, and it’s reasonable to think his game will drop off once he starts losing a step, seeing as how this is the first time he’s slugging over .400 in a season. It’s tough to definitively judge Bourn fairly because of the terrible Astros teams he played on prior to joining the Braves, but you still have to go by what you see and how you feel about his game. Listen, I think Bourn is a nice player, but he’s not someone you pay $80 million. Unless you’re fiscally irresponsible and lack any imagination and ingenuity whatsoever when it comes to building a team, that is.

If you watched the Phillies regularly from 2008 through 2011 — and I get the feeling you just might have — then you remember Angel Pagan from his days with the Mets. He didn’t play particularly well against us overall (.688 OPS), but he did have some huge games and always proved useful even when not at his best. Pagan will turn 32 in July 2013, but, say, a four-year investment should cover at least two or three seasons of prime production. I’d feel even better about the contract because he has proven this season that he doesn’t need to rely on his speed to be effective. Oh, and obviously having the surname “Pagan” — even if it’s not pronounced that way — juxtapositioned with the first name “Angel” is pretty cool. He could have his own “Pagan Gods” cheering section at Citizens Bank Park. Come on, gotta make that happen. Oversensitive religious nutjobs be damned.

For the sake of the Phillies and ensuring financial flexibility moving forward, Amaro would be wise to, instead of throwing an obscene amount of money at Michael Bourn, sign Pagan to a four-year, $32-34 million contract. He has similar, if not better, offensive stats to Bourn with the speed to steal 30 bases. Pagan has a slightly higher slugging percentage (.426) than Bourn (.421) this season, and their numbers are relatively even across the board (have a look for yourself). Dig deeper and you’ll see that Pagan has 73 less plate appearances (58 less official at-bats) than Bourn, so the discrepancy in production essentially balances out. For their careers, Pagan has a better plate discipline rate (check FanGraphs), as well as a slugging percentage and OPS 50 and 44 points, respectively, higher than Bourn. Now, if you want to argue that Bourn is a superior defender to Pagan, the Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) advanced metric certainly agrees with you. Still, is that difference between the two, though considerable, worth an extra $40-50 million? Tune in for the current Braves/Giants series and judge for yourself as Bourn and Pagan go head-to-head. Pagan has really stepped up his game since the Melky Cabrera suspension.

In summation: Discipline and thriftiness, Phillies. Start practicing both, and stop spending money recklessly. Giving $80 million to Michael Bourn would qualify as “recklessly,” sorta like giving $50 million to Jonathan Papelbon.

2012 National League Preview

Yes, I’m late, but whatever, I do what I want. This won’t be as extensive as Class’s American League preview, but maybe that’s a good thing.

NL East

This division is going to be a bloodbath, and I’ve been saying for months now that it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Phillies’ reign as champions comes to an end.

1. Florida Miami Marlins (Record: 92-70)

Do people realize how preposterously stacked this team is, especially on offense? Just take a look at the lineup. A core of Hanley Ramirez (mercurial yet undeniably blessed with rare talent), Mike Giancarlo Stanton (he’s going to hit 50 home runs at some point), Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, and Emilio Bonifacio was enhanced by the signing of Jose Reyes in the offseason. Let’s also not forget the Marlins added Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano (can a change of scenery and union with the equally loco Ozzie Guillen revive his career?) to a starting rotation that features one of baseball’s premier pitchers in Josh Johnson, as well as Heath Bell to fill the closer’s role. If this team stays healthy, I honestly think it’ll win the division.

As for the new ballpark… well, Lance Berkman is not a fan. After last night, I doubt Giancarlo Stanton is either. It looks like Marlins’ owner Jeffrey Loria went for style over substance with this grandiose construction, and it could end up being to the detriment of his own team.

2. Philadelphia Phillies (Record: 91-71)*

There’s a distinct whiff of fear in the air in Philadelphia about what the summer holds in store for the geriatric Phillies. It took some time for the uneasiness to become full-blown panic, but we’re almost there. In fact, if you heed the warnings of writers and listen to sports radio, we’re already there. Let’s delve into the reasons for hysterics:

- Our old, injured team is, in fact, old and injured. Who knew? Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the starting left side of the infield, represents a combined financial commitment of $155 million. Both players are out indefinitely, and there exists a real — fine, likely — possibility that their best years are behind them.

- Chase Utley’s degenerative knees have him on the fast track to early retirement. Even if that statement proves untrue, the unfortunate reality is it looks more and more likely that the Chase Utley of the past is no more. We were incredibly spoiled in getting to witness one of the best five-year stretches for any second basemen in baseball history, and it’s never easy to acknowledge when a dominant player begins to decline.

- Ryan Howard, even when he’s healthy enough to play, won’t be truly 100%, back-to-normal healthy probably until next season. Add that to the fact he’s already begun his decline, and I have an ominous feeling about the Big Stick in 2012. Specifically, I envision a player whose base strength won’t be at its usual level, but whose plate discipline will remain erratic. In other words, expect to see a further decrease in Howard’s power numbers while he still helplessly flails at curveballs and sliders a foot off the plate. All for the sparkling price of $125 million over the next five years. Can’t wait.

- Remember Rany Jazayerli’s inflammatory article on Grantland near the end of last season that rankled Phillies fans and prompted them to get all defensive? Well, I maintain that the reason so many Phillies fans cried blasphemy and went into vitriol-spewing mode is because Jazayerli was just articulating their deepest fears. At least that’s how I felt about it. The guy is smart — really smart — and knows his baseball. His prediction of imminent doom for the Phillies beyond 2011 wasn’t novel in thought, but it was the proverbial turd in the punch bowl that was an otherwise sublime season. Now, over seven months later, Jazayerli’s warning smacks of painful prescience. This could be the worst Phillies offense we’ve seen in quite some time. Baseball Prospectus forecasted the Phils would score the least amount of runs in the NL East (30 fewer than Washington) and be among the NL’s worst offenses. Considering some of the downright ugly lineups Charlie Manuel will have to trot out this season, there’s little reason to believe that projection is way off base. Having great pitching is essential, but teams still need to score more than a few runs per game to win. Best case scenario: The Phils are relatively healthy by the end of the year and get hot at precisely the right time, ala the 2010 San Francisco Giants.

- Who plays left field? For now, it’ll be a combination of John Mayberry, Jr., Laynce Nix, and Juan Pierre. I’m still holding out hope for Domonic Brown and am higher on him than so many other Phillies fans who have jumped ship. I saw a lot of improvement at the plate during his stint in the majors last season (especially with pitch selectivity), although there’s no doubt he remains a relative disaster in the outfield and needs to improve there if he ever hopes to play regularly in the big leagues. Come on, Dom, put it all together.

Now for the good:

- JIM THOME IS BACK! It’s only fitting that the guy who signed a mega-contract in Philadelphia nearly a decade ago as the Phillies were beginning their ascent is coming back for what in all likelihood will be his final season. I don’t care if Thome plays some first base and totally stinks up the joint — I’ll still love him just the same. He’ll be an invaluable member of the team both as a bench player and clubhouse presence. I can just imagine Gentleman Jim hitting a clutch pinch-hit home run late in the season to vault the Phillies to victory in a must-win game. One can dream, right?

- The starting staff is still led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels, with Vance Worley and Joe Blanton rounding out the final two spots. Halladay had some velocity concerns in the middle of spring trainer and seldom resembled his usually precise self. The good news is he threw the ball better his last two starts and looks fine to start the season. Lee dominated his final two starts when Charlie treated it like a regular season game and let him go six innings. Hamels’ performance during the spring has fluctuated, but he’s throwing the ball really well and is still very much in his prime as a pitcher. The man is going to get paid, and I hope it’s by the Phillies. Truth of the matter is that none of the big three endear themselves to me quite like Vance Worley does. Here’s a guy who was always in the second tier of prospects when you read reports about the Phillies’ farm system and never exactly dominated in the minors. Yet the Vanimal resembles his nickname in both appearance and demeanor. With those thick, black-rimmed glasses protecting a menacing stare and a flat-brimmed hat snugly resting on top of his mohawk, Worley reminds you of a character you could’ve seen in Major League. Big Joe Blanton, fresh off elbow surgery, looked strong and sharp during the spring. You could do a lot worse as far as fifth starters go.

With that kind of starting pitching, a team will always be in contention. Still, as we saw in last year’s playoffs, it doesn’t matter how good the pitching is when the offense can’t score.

- Jonathan Papelbon, while grossly overpaid, should fit in quite well with both this team and city. At first, I was incredulous that the Phillies sunk $50 million over four years into the closer position (though at least it wasn’t spent on hard-luck Ryan Madson), especially when that money should have been used to upgrade the offense. But then I realized there’s nothing I can do about it and that I might as well start prepping my Papelboner. If he can manage to convert saves at an 85+% clip, I’ll be satisfied. So far, so good after one game. I also hope Papelbon can serve as a mentor to possible future closer Phillippe Aumont when he gets his chance with the Phillies.

- Congratulations to Joe Savery for making the final roster. It’s been a long, strange trip for the former 2007 first round draft pick out of Rice, who’s gone from starting pitcher to first baseman to relief pitcher during his time in the organization. He has finally settled in as a lefty reliever and even seen an increase in velocity. If Savery can also serve as an emergency pinch hitter (ala Micah Owings), he’ll automatically vault himself to folk hero status among Phillies fans.

- Freddy Galvis. As a result of the Utley injury saga rearing its ugly head once again, the Phillies were forced to switch Galvis, a shortstop by trade and one of the organization’s top prospects, over to second base. The 22-year old Venezuelan has seamlessly transitioned his slick-fielding ways to the position and will be the starting second basemen on Opening Day. Charlie Manuel, along with just about everyone else, has raved about Galvis’s natural ability and baseball IQ (both in the field and on the bases). His ability with the glove has never been in question, even dating back to when the Phillies first started scouting him at age 14, but it’s how he develops as a hitter that will ultimately determine his long-term potential in the majors. For someone labeled as an “all glove, no bat” prospect, Galvis had a remarkable spring at the dish, to the tune of a .280/.295/.476 line with 9 R, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 2 BB and 8 SO in 82 AB. Remember, before 2011, Galvis had cracked .600 OPS in the minors just once. However, he was also always the youngest player on his teams and still maturing physically. Galvis came into camp in February noticeably stronger, after having added around ten pounds in muscle during the offseason, and it reflected in his stat line. Don’t expect a .771 OPS, but if he can manage to hover around the .700 mark — however unlikely that may be — while playing stellar defense, it would be a godsend.

Unfortunately, nothing gold can stay, and my outlook on this season is more grim than I would like. I’ve already come to grips that this most recent golden era of Phillies baseball is rapidly drawing to a close, and, as much as it pains me to invoke the thought, I wouldn’t be surprised if they miss out on the playoffs altogether. While completely arbitrary and not grounded in statistical data, missing the playoffs in 2012 would follow the downward trend that started with the World Series victory in 2008:

2009 - Lost World Series

2010 - Lost NLCS

2011 - Lost NLDS

While the demise of the Phillies is being greatly exaggerated (I hope), it’s apparent that the current core is indubitably on the decline. Brace yourselves, Phillies fans, the fun — and, oh, how much fun it’s been — is just about over. Let’s hope they defy the odds and have another (last?) run left in them, but I’m lacking confidence, just in case you couldn’t tell. That said, I’m still comfortable — who am I kidding, I’m definitely going against my better judgment here — predicting the 2012 Phillies to be one of the two Wild Card teams in the NL.

3. Atlanta Braves (Record: 87-75)

It seems like everyone is either heavily sleeping on Jason Heyward or has just forgotten about him altogether. That would be a mistake. If Heyward can stay healthy (and, as we’ve seen during first two seasons in the big leagues, that’s a big “if”), he has the raw talent to be among the game’s best players — if not the best player, period. We’re talking about as bona fide a five-tool player as there is walking the planet, someone who personifies the spirit of the “can’t miss” label and, based on pure ability alone, is really the perfect baseball player. Heyward can hit for average, hit for power, run the bases with speed and intelligence, possesses a cannon for an arm, fields his position effortlessly, and has a mental makeup that is off the charts. What he did in the minor leagues as an 18-, 19-, and 20-year old was nothing short of incredible. Aside from injuries, I see no possible way Heyward doesn’t fulfill his immense potential and become a superstar in the majors. It just sucks that I’ll have to watch him do it as an Atlanta Brave.

4. Washington Nationals (Record: 86-76)

Living in DC and having observed this franchise over the past four years, I’m prepared to believe in its viability as a legitimate contender. Even if the breakthrough ascent doesn’t happen in 2012, it will in the very near future. The Nationals are coming, and the rest of the NL East — and all of baseball, for that matter — knows it, too. I liken what’s happening to the pro baseball team in DC with what happened to the pro hockey team in Pittsburgh. Both teams just happened to be the worst in their respective sports at the perfect time and, as luck would have it, sucked their way into drafting generational talents in back-to-back years. Also like the Penguins, I expect the Nationals to reap the rewards of their past impotence for years to come as the team evolves into a league power.

Honestly, it’s hard for me not to like the Nationals a little bit. I’ve watched a lot of their games and seen the core develop. If the Nationals do have their Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to build around in Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, they’re going to win at least a few NL East titles — I’m predicting a World Series, too — over the next 5-10 years.

5. New York Mets (Record: 70-92)

Fuck ‘em.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals (Record: 96-66)

I think the Cardinals, even without Albert Pujols, will actually be better in 2012. This is still a team with a deep pitching staff and potent lineup. Adam Wainright (remember him?) is back from Tommy John surgery, while Carlos Beltran — well, a healthy Carlos Beltran — should help somewhat alleviate the loss of Pujols in the middle of the order. Having Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, and David Freese also helps soften the blow. Lastly, I really like the decision to appoint Mike Matheny as Tony La Russa’s successor as manager.

Breakout player: John Jay. I liked him a lot last year and think he’ll blossom as the Cardinals’ everyday center fielder.

2. Cincinnati Reds (Record: 88-74)*

Joey Votto is probably the coolest player in baseball. He looks like a mobster straight out of Goodfellas and has a stare that’ll make you shit your pants.Plus, the dude is a Moneyball disciple’s wet dream. That 10-year, $225 million contract is insane, but Votto will be worth the investment for at least half the term. Unfortunate news about Ryan Madson needing Tommy John surgery and missing the season, but I think Sean Marshall is going to seize the opportunity and be a revelation at the closer spot.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (Record: 83-79)

Ryan Braun was obviously the target of an anti-Semetic drug testing program engineered by MLB to tarnish the reputation of the league’s best, most visible Jewish player. It’s a conspiracy, I tell you. All kidding aside, that had to be one of the more bizarre incidents ever, and the fact that Braun was exonerated based on a technicality won’t clear his name in the court of public opinion. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and this whole thing stinks to high heaven. Alas, it’s something that will likely get swept under the rug and fade into oblivion as time goes on.

With a rotation featuring Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo and Jon Axford holding down the closer’s the role, the Brewers have enough to contend. Still, they’re really going to come to regret the Shaun Marcum-for-Brett Lawrie trade, especially in light of Prince Fielder’s departure.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (Record: 77-85)

My candidate for this season’s Michael Morse Memorial Breakout Player of the Year Award (here’s what I wrote about Morse in December 2010 and then again at the start of the 2011 season): Pirates’ first baseman Garrett Jones, of whom I’ve always been an admirer from afar. As someone who’s been privy to watching him play live, I know he oozes serious potential. Jones is one of those guys where the sound of his bat perfectly striking the ball just sounds different. It’s the unmistakable, thunderous, and jarring crack that whips you to attention as the ball screams its way out of the park at warp speed. As soon as something like that happens, you put a check next to the “plus, plus” box in the player’s “power” tool section. Jones fits a similar profile and possesses the qualities I look for in a potential breakout player — imposing physical specimen, demonstrated big league ability during limited playing time, prodigious power as a hitter. Finally, according to Pirates fans, he’s the best looking guy on the team. That has to count for something.

Also, Andrew McCutcheon is reminiscent of a young Barry Bonds. Good to see the Pirates acted like a legitimate professional sports franchise and locked him up long-term.

5. Chicago Cubs (Record: 71-91)

The gospel of Theo Epstein’s second endeavor as a GM begins in 2012. He has the same resources at his disposal as he had with the Red Sox, and you have to think it’s only a matter of time before the Cubs follow an analogous trajectory of development. It won’t happen overnight, though.

6. Houston Astros (Record: 61-101)

So, this team is composed of Fat El Caballo Carlos Lee, Brett Myers back in the closer’s role, and… what, exactly? A smorgasbord of minor leaguers? Gonna be a long season for the Astros.

NL West

1. San Francisco Giants(Record: 88-74)

Buster Posey’s back, and the pitching is still, for my money, the best in baseball. The offense is always the question mark with this Giants team, but I think there will be enough to win the division.

2.  Colorado Rockies (Record: 86-76)

I believe in the power of Jamie Moyer. Well, mainly Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, but definitely Jamie Moyer, too. I could not be rooting harder for this team unless it was the Phillies.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks (Record: 84-78)

The Trevor Cahill trade certainly bolsters the starting rotation, and Justin Upton is a superstar, but I’m still not buying this team to repeat as division winners.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers (Record: 78-84)

Matt Kemp is awesome, and Clayton Kershaw is the best left-handed starting pitcher in baseball (yes, better than C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels). Still, I don’t see enough in the lineup or starting rotation that leads me to believe this team is ready to win the division.

5. San Diego Padres (Record: 69-93)

So, Cameron Maybin is finally going to break out this season, right? I’ve been hearing that for five years now.

Wild Card Round:

Phillies over Reds

Divisional Round:

Cardinals over Phillies in 5

Giants over Marlins in 4

Championship Round:

Cardinals over Giants in 7

2012 American League Preview or The Modified Pythagorean Projected Rankings Theorem

Guest post — by Brian “Class” Callahan

(Editor’s note: It’s long, but worth the read.)

During a conference call meeting a few months back at work, we discussed what we would have to do to make the leap to compete at the next level in 2012. As people reflected on the past year and described the challenges to come in the year ahead, we realized that we needed to shift the topic of conversation from what we termed tactical changes to structural changes. The big difference in the two is the scale. Making tactical changes may help against a certain level of competition but will only go so far. It is the difference between doing damage on the dance floor at the Thirsty Turtle and being the man of the hour at Pure in Las Vegas.

Making and executing on structural changes has a high degree of difficulty but is essential to success at a higher level. Teams that want to succeed in the AL East, one of the toughest divisions in sports, that are not located in Boston or New York, have to make those structural changes. Tampa Bay has done so in recent years. Toronto looks like it has. But Baltimore has resisted any transformation that would be requisite for them to compete here and has paid the price dearly.

If teams had more resources to compete in the Central, then there may be more room at the top. As it is, the best team from last year will be the best team again. Detroit lost a reliable producer in the middle of its lineup but went out and signed one of the best free agents on the market. Kansas City has slowly developed an exciting collection of young talent and even made savvy trades, such as the acquisition of Jonathan Sanchez, who was one of the best pitchers on a top-flight staff that won the World Series back in 2010. Cleveland gambled with its structural change last year by trading away quality prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez, a guy who has yet to prove he is not a one-year wonder and can pitch against the designated hitters in the American League. Chicago made anti-structural changes by letting its ace and manager go to Miami. And Minnesota is in a long-term player development phase, hoping Terry Ryan can replenish a dry system and franchise guys like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau can stay healthy long enough to benefit from that next generation of talent.

Out in the West, the Rangers think they can continue their quest to be the Buffalo Bills of baseball by remaining relatively the same; the swap of C.J. Wilson for Yu Darvish was the team’s major move in the offseason. By returning one of the best offenses in baseball and a staff that has the capability to go deep in October, the Rangers may very well return to the Fall Classic and win it. The team will be challenged in the regular season by the Angels, who went out and reeled in the best player of this generation and are waiting for one of the best of the next generation. Even the A’s went out and made an uncharacteristically splashy signing with the addition of Yoenis Cespedes, who could be the best Cuban defector of recent years. The team followed that up by taking a gamble on Manny Ramirez in a classic low-risk, high-reward move by Bill Beane, he of Moneyball fame. And even though it may not be the year for the Mariners, and unfortunately one of the last for the incredible indelible Ichiro, the arrival of Jesus Montero gives the team one of the best young bats in the game. Even if it cost them Michael Pineda, the Mariners had a dearth of offensive production last year and can use all the help they can get. As they say, chicks dig the long ball.

***

To bring some rationality to the table, I give you the better-looking and more successful twin of the Karma Rankings, the Modified Pythagorean Projected Rankings Theorem. I calculated the total runs produced and runs allowed for all the players on a team (based on the Sports Illustrated projected starting lineups and pitching staffs), took the run differential for the teams, and then ranked them accordingly (with power to make an Executive Veto in one case). In some cases this was trickier than I had hoped for because of injuries and minor league call-ups. I kept the stats from last year for an injured player on offense (to account for the injury risk of said player) and either took the worst year for an established pitcher who was hurt or the highest number of total runs allowed by a starter on that staff (also accounts for the injury risk of said player and does not allow a team to improve in the total calculation because of an injury).  With minor leaguers I had to be a little more creative to somehow project their performance and not give them too much credit for stats not yet achieved (For a good picture of this see the Royals section). With hitters I took their runs from the minors and any earned in the majors and subtracted 10 to account for the jump. With pitchers I took the pitcher who allowed the most runs and either subtracted or added 10 to that total depending on the consensus scouting reports. If a guy is supposed to be a stud that should somehow be taken into account even if it is hard to measure with this sort of system. While far from perfect, whatever margin of error there is is one I am comfortable with (Editor’s note: Me too). Whew. Still here? Good, let’s go:

AL East

1. New York Yankees

“[Jesus Montero] may be the best player I’ve ever dealt away.” - Brian Cashman

“I have a picture of a centaur above my bed.” - Alex Rodriguez

“What are your hopes and dreams?” - Derek Jeter

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 740

Runs allowed by projected starters: 362

Differential: 378

Combined weight of C.C. Sabathia and Michael Pineda: 560 pounds, or approximately the weight of a large male lion. The Yankees had by far the biggest run differential out of all the teams. A lot of this though depends on the success of its starters (especially Pineda, who has already gone on the DL to start the season) and the health of an aging roster. While there is a big gap between the Yankee differential and the Red Sox’s I think this division will be closer than that indicates. Expect a Game of Thrones-type battle for supremacy in this division. 

2. Boston Red Sox

 “Alfredo Aceves is the greatest athlete of all time.” - Jacob “GA” Grill Abramowitz (Editor’s note: This guy.)

“No chicken, no video games, no beer. Just win, baby.” - Bobby Valentine

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 646

Runs allowed by projected starters: 450*

*Somewhat unreliable because Felix Doubront was in Triple-A, Daniel Bard was in the pen, and Clay Buchholz was injured.

Differential: 196

For the 2012 Red Sox, tactical changes may be all that is needed for a return to the World Series; without that awful start and end they were the best team in baseball last year. John Lackey had a horrible year (Editor’s note: Because he’s horrible) and Tim Wakefield was past being a value add. I think there is some potential with this retooled pitching staff. With a young pitcher like Daniel Bard there are always question marks but the Red Sox have a good track record of player development that should continue under the Ben Cherington regime. Bard was once a potential successor to Jonathan Papelbon in the pen. He has great stuff, throws hard, and according to Soxprospects.com has a slider, a slurve, and a couple pitches not used as often, including a two-seamer, a cutter, and a circle change. I bet on him to be at least as effective as a more vintage Wakefield and potentially a whole lot more. He joins a formidable one-two punch in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester that could be the best in the league. Valentine should give these guys a kick in the arse if they become complacent down the stretch. Still that peskiest of trade deadline concerns lingers in the bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon did not quell the disaster down the stretch last year. And now, new closer Andrew Bailey has already injured his thumb (Editor’s note: Yeah, but that’s why you have Alfredo Aceves). A better starting staff should limit the stress on the pen, which will be vital to avoiding a collapse and staying ahead of the other AL East powers.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

“When we meet with a young pitcher in a meeting planning their first year in big league camp, we always tell them to watch James Shields and the way he prepares…Now that mentality is just ingrained in the fabric of who we are.” - Andrew Friedman

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 532

Runs allowed by projected starters: 391

Differential: 141

The Rays could have the top pitching in the league but will need Evan Longoria to stay healthy so he can anchor a lineup that needs to produce enough runs to keep up with the Sox and Yankees. I always underestimate this team and they always seem to get those late-inning rallies and big-game performances. What Friedman, Joe Maddon, and company have built there is one of the game’s greatest success stories of recent years and a direct challenge to the premise that you need a deep pocket to win.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

“We haven’t done anything yet. But it does feel better to look on the field and see more talent, see better athletes. You start to see what’s been put in place. I don’t know how it’s going to translate. The thought and the hope and the plan is that it translates into wins.” - Alex Anthopoulos

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 489

Runs allowed by projected starters: 388

Differential: 101

The Blue Jays will be better but have questions in the rotation, including Dustin McGowan, SI’s projected #3 starter, who has been on the DL since 2008. In another division these guys could contend for a title. In here I think there is still too much competition to overtake the ranks of the Big 3 and make the playoffs for the first time since the days of Joe Carter. That being said I would not be totally surprised to see this team make the leap this year. I just think the group needs another year; this division is not the easiest place to develop in.

Editor’s Note: I was a year early on the Blue Jays when I predicted they’d be the surprise team of 2011 and win the AL Wild Card. I’ll go ahead and do it again in 2012. With the beloved Maple Leafs stinking up the joint, this time in spectacular late-season fashion, and on track to miss the playoffs for the seventh straight season, Torontonians are turning their attention to the upstart Blue Jays. And this season it feels like there’s an earnest sense of optimism. I mean, when has a “Let’s Go Blue Jays” chant ever derisively serenaded the hapless Leafs during a home game like it did last week against the Flyers? Not only did the Blue Jays post a 23-7 record in spring training but, according to people around the team and even opponents, they seem to have a certain kind of energy and swagger. It’s not twenty years ago — even if the (awesome) retro threads might make you think otherwise — but there’s a real buzz around town about the pro baseball team. Again, I like what Alex Anthopoulos has done north of the border, and I think that Rays-like leap is coming. Jose Bautista proved in 2011 that 2010 was no fluke and he’s one of the league’s premier middle-of-the-lineup threats. Brett Lawrie has been getting a lot of hype this spring, but anyone paying attention last season could see he has the ability to be that scintillating star player who could transform a franchise. Plus, he’s a native son, and the kind of player Canadians everywhere can get behind. Side note: It’d probably be a good idea not to ask Brewers fans, or GM Doug Melvin, about that Shaun Marcum-for-Brett Lawrie trade. I have a feeling five years from now we’re looking back at that as one of the steals of the decade. There was another rookie who made an emphatic impression during his stint with the Blue Jays last year. Remember Eric Thames? Before Lawrie got called up, he was the guy generating headlines for his early success. He finished the season with a .262/.313/.456 line and 12 HR, 37 RBI, 23 BB, and 88 SO in 362 AB over 95 games. Thames raked at each of his minor league stops and has legit power. I’ve also been a Ricky Romero fan ever since I watched him carve up the Phillies in back-to-back starts within ten days during interleague play in 2009. He took that next step last year and is poised to join the ranks of elite left-handed starting pitchers.

Overall, this is actually a pretty cool team and one I’m going to root for in the AL. J.P. Arencibia memorably — and hilariously — started the Tim Kurkjian impersonation craze. Adam Lind isn’t the player who hit 35 home runs and drove in 114 runs while posting a .305/.370/.562 line in 2009, but he’s an adequate fit at first base and just looks like a guy you can’t help but root for. Braves’ castoffs Yunel Escober (shortstop) and Kelly Johnson (second base) form the double play tandem. One-time rising superstar Colby Rasmus struggled mightily — .171/.201/.316 with 14 R, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 5 BB, and 39 SO in 133 AB over 35 games — after being acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline for eventual playoff heros Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski (and, to a lesser extent, Edwin Jackson).* It must especially suck for a player labeled a malcontent to get traded, then see his old team get white hot and go on an unprecedented run through the end of the regular season and playoffs en route to winning the World Series. Ouch. Rasmus will be looking to revive in Toronto a career that stagnated in St. Louis when his differences with Tony La Russa came to a head. He’s a five-tool player with all the ability in the world, and, at 25, enough time to put it together and reach his potential. But that evolution needs to start now.

* Remember, Jim Bowden wouldn’t have made that trade. Then again, he’s also no longer currently working in baseball and instead offers his opinion for your consumption as an ESPN Insider. I guess that John Mozeliak is a pretty smart guy with solid hunches, huh? Just in case you need more proof of his prowess as a GM, watch the Albert Pujols-less Cardinals win the NL Central and be one of baseball’s top teams this season.

5. Baltimore Orioles

“I’m glad to be back, glad to be working for the Orioles, and I’m glad to get another opportunity. I’m glad to back in the major leagues.” - Daniel F. Duquette

“We have good options. We’ll see where we are with the health. It’s kind of like the starting pitching. We think we have the people to do it, it’s just a matter of sorting it out. It’s the easy part and the hard part. I’d feel differently if we didn’t have to people here to do it.” - Buck “Don’t Call Me Optimistic” Showalter

“Guthrie gets a one-year deal in Colorado, avoiding arbitration, and the Birds are once again left with a mess of unproven pitchers…. It’s one thing to dismantle a team. It’s another to put it at a greater competitive disadvantage…. The Orioles are not as good as they were yesterday, which is an amazing thing to say, but it’s true. Guthrie never won in Baltimore, but he competed, and that’s something the Orioles have lacked more than anything these last 14 years.” - Matt Palmer, “Orioles Report”, Press Box, February 6, 2012

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 529

Runs allowed by projected starters: 460*

Differential: 69 (your joke here)

* I used Jeremy Guthrie’s runs allowed for Wei-Yin Chen’s (Editor’s note: Who the fuck is Wei-Yin Chen?!). Chen could step in and be a decent #1 starter for this team. I would be surprised if he was much better than Guthrie, but since this is the Orioles he could always be worse.

Showalter provides a tactical advantage but not much of a structural one. Out of the league for almost a decade, Duquette may very well negate that tactical edge. It is never a good idea to trade a dollar for two quarters; Guthrie may not be an ace, but he is surely a serviceable mid-rotation guy for a contender. AL East teams will continue to tee off on the Orioles in 2012 and I expect Duquette to unload some guys like Adam Jones and get hampered with injuries from rusty veterans like Brian Roberts. Like many in Orioles nation, I am awaiting the day this team returns to prominence. Unfortunately, that day may be years away as the rest of the teams in the AL East continue to get better. (Editor’s note: Poor Baltimorians. You’d be hard pressed to find a more hopeless franchise in sports right now than the Orioles, especially when you factor in the AL East is the ultimate gauntlet of a division. Maybe the Charlotte Bobcats? Shit, the Orioles even managed to get themselves banished from an entire country!)

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers

“He’s [Prince Fielder] going to come full circle. You know, he’s been there in Detroit most of his young life, so I think he’ll be comfortable in that place…If you’re a good player, you’re a good player. I just think guys like Prince and Albert (Pujols) that have changed leagues, I don’t think there’s going to be too much getting used to. Everybody’s gotta throw it over the plate to hit it, so … he’ll be fine, man.” - Cecil Fielder

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 618

Runs allowed by projected starters: 501

Differential: 117

The Tigers should run away with this division. While they definitely overpaid for Fielder they needed some way to fill the hole left by Victor Martinez. The move epitomizes a structural change. The team needed to combat the Albert Pujols signing and acquire a game-changer to compete with the Yankees in October. With Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera, I think the Tigers have the best three-four lineup spots in the game. Also interesting is the return of a Fielder to Detroit, which seems like a natural fit. 

The only question to me is how well the pitching does. The return of MVP/Cy Young Verlander will go a long way, but can Doug Fister repeat last year’s success, and will the rest of the staff step up? Playing in a softer division should help these guys but they may need to acquire another arm to win the pennant. While they may want to wait one year until Martinez returns to go all-in, the Tigers may want to go after Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke, who will be free agents in 2013. A top duo of Verlander and one of these guys would give the Tigers the best one-two punch in the AL and a great chance to live up to its vaunted “Yankee Killer” status in the postseason.

2. Kansas City Royals

“Any time that you get into the playoffs –- even though it’s the minor leagues -– you’re in pressure packed situations and the game’s on the line. That’s what you trying to teach these guys and you’re trying to develop them into winning-type players and when you win championships like this, that’s exactly what is happening. They are developing, but developing in a winning atmosphere, which makes them that much better” - Omaha Storm Chaser (KC’s Triple-A affiliate) manager Mike Jirschele

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 634*

Runs allowed by projected starters: 526**

Differential: 108

* I took the minor league totals for Lorenzo Cain, Johnny Giavotella, and Mike Moustakas and added their MLB totals as well then subtracted by 30 (10 for each) to account for the higher degree of difficulty in scoring runs at the big league level. While this may not be enough of a subtraction, this trio has a lot of potential. Giavotella will compete ( and should win) the 2nd basemen job; he was Kansas City’s 2011 George Brett Minor League Hitter of the Year Award and helped lead the Omaha Storm Chasers to a memorable season and the Pacific League Title. Cain was second in homers, RBI, and total bases, and third in runs, hits, doubles, triples, and stolen bases, while batting .312 with an OPS of .877 for the Storm Chasers. As an indicator of how stacked the team was, Storm Chaser Home run, total base, double, and hits leader Clint Robinson did not even get the call up this spring. 3rd baseman Mike Moustakas has been a top prospect as well and should be an immediate contributor to what will be an exciting young team.

** This would have been lower if I went by the actual number of runs allowed by the projected starters. Since Bruce Chen and Felipe Paulina pitched 155 and 124.2 innings respectively I gave them Luke Hochevar’s run totals since he led the team in runs allowed, which may be generous because we are dealing with Bruce Chen here. I did the same for Luis Mendoza, which may be conservative. He was the Royals farm system pitcher of the year. With these totals the Royals are close to the Tigers but still second in the division, which still may be a reach but also corresponds to SI’s prediction (not that it jinxes teams or anything). I also love the acquisition of Jonathan Sanchez, who has big game experience and great stuff to boot; he may give the Royals a deeper rotation than Detroit. Couple that with the young bats and positive energy generated by the Billy Butler signing and this team could be the sleeper of the year.At the very least th Royals should rise out of the cellar that they have been in in this division for many years.

Editor’s note: I like the Royals’s core base of talent — Alex Gordon has finally blossomed after moving to left field, Eric Hosmer is the AL’s version of Jason Heyward at the plate (no, really, compare their minor league stats), Lorenzo Cain is ready to emerge, and Billy Butler is probably the most underrated hitter in baseball — and expect them to be an exciting team with a top offense. On the flip side, the pitching is still a year away, especially now with Joakim Soria set to miss the season after Tommy John surgery.

3. Cleveland Indians

“It was a natural reaction by players. Manhood, man! Nobody wants to back down.” - Manny Acta on the Ubaldo Jiminez plunking of Troy Tulowitski

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 444

Runs allowed by projected starters: 420

Differential: 24

Kansas City is far from being a sure second place team in what may be the weakest division in baseball. Cleveland could contend if Jiminez regains his nasty form from 2010, Hafner stays healthy, the young guys still develop, Derek Lowe rebounds from a rocky 2011 campaign and lends some veteran guidance to a young staff, and Grady Sizemore returns. While Cleveland may rank high in the Karma Rankings (UPDATE: On April 1st, Jiminez plunked Tulowitzski in what may have been a belated throw of jealousy over not getting a contract extension from the Rockies. Rockie manager Jim Tracy called it “the most gutless act I’ve seen in 35 years in the game.” Uh-oh, SpaghettiOs), that’s too many “ifs” for me to feel comfortable picking them higher than third in the division this year.

4. Chicago White Sox

“He [Jim Harbaugh, coach of the San Francisco 49ers] has no idea, but he’s going to stand up in front of the White Sox and talk about team leadership and togetherness. We need to tap into that a little bit.” - Ken Williams. Williams’ son Kyle infamously dropped  the punt in the 2012 NFC Championship. Williams was rightfully furious over the outrage saying  that “through it all, the young man [Kyle] has shown me exactly who I thought he was, which is a man of character, a strong-minded, tough son of a gun.” Williams will need to be that man of principle in what will be a testing year for Obama’s team from the South Side.

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 432

Runs allowed by projected starters: 477*

Differential: -41

* The top three pitchers on the staff are solid but not exceptional enough to help an aging, inconsistent, and injury prone offense. The loss of Mark Buehrle will be felt. He was a dependable workhorse for the club over the past several years. New manager Robin Ventura will have his hands full and will be a more temperate presence then Ozzie Guillen was in the clubhouse, which is probably good with the struggles this team will face. Although if Jake Peavy stays healthy and pitches well the team could exceed expectations. Giving him 97 runs allowed (which is the total I gave him for the calculation) would be the most by four runs of any season of his career but he has failed to stay healthy in recent years and has not been the same since those injury woes struck. Philip Humber, the projected #5, pitched well last year but only recorded 163 innings— with a higher workload it is a fair bet that he will reach or exceed the 97 figure. If he does not then that means extra work for the pen and extra innings and runs. Chris Sale, the projected #3, only pitched 71 innings so it is even more of a question of how he will do in the expanded role in his case. Rebuilding has been the word out of Ken Williams and co. and I expect that to hold true.

5. Minnesota Twins

“It was the first time I’d been out this year, so it was good to get out there…Just comfort-wide going back to last year, I feel a lot more comfortable there than last year. It’s good to get that first one, I guess. The more you play over there, more comfortable you’ll be.” - Joe Mauer

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 432*

Runs allowed by projected starters: 486**

Differential: -54

* I expect Mauer to be healthy so I doubled his output from last year. If  he is not then someone else will seemingly fill that production. I took Justin Morneau’s 19 run total, meaning there will be 38 extra runs from what these two produced last year (albeit being out for a huge chunk of the season), or at least from who will step in for these two, which is a reasonable if not conservative figure.

** Added 10 to both Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano’s totals. These two, or the bullpen that has to come after them, will have to pitch more than 148.1 and 134.1 innings, respectively. Adding only 10 runs to Scott Baker might be giving him the benefit of the doubt but he pitched well (3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 8.2 K/9) in a comparable amount of innings pitched (134.2). Fantasy sleeper methinks?  Carl Pavano could also do better than 123 runs. In some cases taking the total runs instead of the earned runs hurts the overall numbers for these teams and Pavano is a good example. He allowed 106 earned runs. Still the reason I used this formula is that it does account for a cumulative team effort on defense. Those runs came from somewhere. And with a team only an injury or two from the abyss, sloppy defense could be the nail in the coffin in what could be a long season for the Twins.

Editor’s note: I’m never comfortable counting out the Twins in general, and that becomes especially true for this season if Mauer and Morneau are able to regain their old form.

AL West

1. Orange County Angels (name courtesy of former LA resident and desk buddy Danielle Lenglet.) 

“Believe me, I have a chip on my shoulder about this contract [calm down dude you’re making a gazillion dollars for the rest of your life]. It’s a new chapter in life [War and Peace and Baseball]. No matter what success I have on this level, there is room to improve [Don’t sell yourself short]. We’ll see ten years from now [Oh, indeed]. I take care of my body pretty well, and I’m confident if I can stay healthy, I can play for 10 years and maybe more than that.” - Albert Pujols. (All joking aside, that is a pretty scary thought. Can he hold up? Will we find out something that diminishes his accomplishments? Who knows. But Pujols should continue to rake for the next few years and make the Angels a perennial contender.)

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 608

Runs allowed by projected starters: 445

Differential: 163

Stacked on top of stacked on top of stacked. Although sticking to my system would have yielded the Rangers as the pick here I am using Executive Veto power here. Pujols is a complete game changer on offense, Morales will be back after missing much of 2011, Mike Trout is one of the best young prospects in the game (and not even accounted for with these calculations), and potential Cy Young Jered Weaver anchors the best top-to-bottom pitching staff in the league. Pujols is by far the best player in the game and got better as the pressure got higher last October. Expect the Angels to win at least one World Series with him. Why not now?

Editor’s note: I still like the Rangers to win this division.

2. Texas Rangers

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 689

Runs allowed by projected starters:  485

Differential: 204

“I love Texas. I love my fans. I love fans of the Rangers. I love the organization. I love my teammates. I love everything about it. But I’m not going to sit here and say that I owe the Rangers. I don’t feel like I owe the Rangers.” - Josh Hamilton

I am a little concerned for Josh Hamilton’s confidence and Nolan Ryan’s karma that no extension has been offered yet. While it is worrisome that Hamilton relapsed over the offseason, I think he has earned a vote of confidence. At the very least, the team could include a clause in the contract that voids it if Hamilton’s drinking affects his ability to play. 

“He fits in well. He’s a funny guy. He’s trying to learn some Spanish.” - Michael Young on Yu Darvish

“You try to judge a lot of players on what happens when things don’t go the way they want them to go. I never saw him lose his cool at all. He just kept coming. I’m happy for him he got it out of his system. Now he realizes it’s just baseball. That’s all it is.” - Ron Washington on Darvish

“Some of the players were teasing me before the game. They said, ‘You’re probably nervous, aren’t you?’ I said, ‘No, I’m not.” - Darvish on Darvish

Accounts so far indicate that Yu Darvish is pretty cool and will be a trend-breaker. He even pulls off the orange hair. But if anyone does not deserve the benefit of the doubt, it is Darvish. Maybe I am still feeling bitter from the Dice-K debacle, but Japanese pitchers have a horrible track record crossing over to MLB. Maybe Darvish is bigger and more athletic than previous pitchers who made the jump, but I am not buying it until I see him fulfill the hype. Especially since the team could have resigned its ace, C.J. Wilson, and instead let him to go to its chief division rival (Editor’s note: As someone who’s far from sold on Wilson, I don’t see his defection to the Angels as a major blow).

The Rangers are an intriguing club. Two years ago they had Cliff Lee and last year I think they benefited from the Red Sox collapse. Darvish is the wild card here. If he lives up to expectations, they should win the World Series. If he does not, there is residual bad karma from the Hamilton situation that could affect clubhouse chemistry. If Joe Nathan gets hurt or otherwise falters, this team could be the biggest disappointment of 2012. Any of those last three “ifs” represent major risks for the Rangers and could be enough to knock the team out of the playoffs, no matter how well the offense does. 

3. Oakland A’s

“He’s got no fear whatsoever. He’s got an incredible amount of focus … He doesn’t take [a bad at-bat] with him.” - Billy Beane on Yoenis Cespedes

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 551*

Runs allowed by projected starters:  465**

Differential: 86

 * Since this team will get Manny Ramirez after 50 games I gave them the runs from their starting 1B and the backup 1B from last year (45, still a low figure), Cespede’s total from the 2010-2011 Cuban National League season (79, may exceed it), and Josh Donaldson’s 79 (generous but you never know with a Billy Beane farm product).

** Added 10 to Brandon McCarthy’s 2011 total (another 10 runs for 30 innings pitched), which may be generous but I suspect someone will emerge from this staff. Oakland is a pitcher’s ballpark and Beane has a good track record of developing young starters. Ditto with Dallas Braden who was a highly touted prospect. I took his 2010 total and added 10 because he is coming off a season when he was hampered with a shoulder injury. Took Bartolo Colon’s 85 runs; these are impressive figures considering his age and the competition of the AL East. Colon could show some age, but this guy is a horse and has already gotten off to a good start in the 2012 campaign. Another value snag by Beane. 

I like the A’s as another sleeper this year despite their unloading of Gio Gonzalez and others (Editor’s note: You mean #2 starter Trevor Cahill and closer Andrew Bailey?) and would not be shocked if they were in contention for the second AL Wild Card. Ramirez — once he’s served his 50-game suspension — and Cespedes could become the strangest yet most endearing middle-of-the-lineup pairing in the game, and the pitching staff is young, talented, and deep (with the exception of Colon on the age part, but he should fit in nonetheless and mentor the younger players). If the A’s find themselves in contention do not be surprised if Beane is aggressive at the trade deadlilne. He has been lying low for a few years but still remains one of the craftiest GM’s in the game.

Editor’s note: The composition of this team is fascinating for its amusing bizarreness. The only players on the roster that the average baseball fan can name are Manny Ramirez, Bartolo Colon, and Yoenis Cespedes.

4. Seattle Mariners

Runs scored by projected starting lineup: 400

Runs allowed by projected starters:  530

Differential: -130

Lots of injuries on this team last year makes it likely that someone will go down again in 2012. Ichiro’s decline does not help matters but Jesus Montero and a ripe farm system offer a bright future for what looks like gray skies and thunderstorms for the Mariners for now.

Wild Card:

Red Sox over Rangers (Beckett outduels Darvish and reminds everyone of his big-game moxie).

Division Series:

Yankees over Red Sox in 5 (First Division Series matchup between these two teams)

Angels over Tigers in 4 (Anything Prince can do Prince Albert can do better)

Championship Series:

Yankees over Angels in 7 (Rivera shuts down Pujols with the game on the line in the Bronx to make what could be his final World Series). The Yankees are just too good this year. I see them steamrolling to a 28th World Series title. (Editor’s note: Please, no.)

MVP: Albert Pujols

Cy Young: Jon Lester

Rookie of the Year: Yoenis Cespedes

Comeback Player of the Year: Carl Crawford

Manager of the Year: Ned “Stark” Yost

(Editor’s note: Needs more bitch tits.)

Phillies Offseason Preview

That was one hell of a World Series, and I hope you watched. Turns out the Cardinals really were the team of destiny. Anyway, now that you’ve (hopefully) sufficiently licked your wounds and are starting to heal, it’s time to look toward next season… which officially started nearly 24 hours ago with the opening of free agency. Feel free to read my offseason musings whenever you’re ready to think about 2012.

In terms of what’s realistically in play for the Phillies, there’s no free agent out there who is a “must have” in my eyes (actually, scratch that, you’ll see that there’s a reliever I crave to see in red pinstripes). Nevertheless, that won’t stop me from wasting my life writing about the topic.

What Needs to be Addressed

1) Shortstop

Right now I’m 50/50 on whether Jimmy Rollins will be back. While having certainly lost a step, he is still one of the game’s top overall shortstops. But more than anything, Rollins is the guy who was here first and initiated this franchise’s turnaround over the last decade. It’s going to be difficult to separate emotion from the process in this business decision, for both the front office and fans alike. Rollins first experienced the big leagues at the end of 2000, playing in just 14 games for a team that finished 65-97 and last in the NL East. The following season a new era of Phillies baseball began, with the team occupying first place in the NL East well into June and fighting the Braves tooth and nail for the division until the very end of the season before eventually succumbing. For me, it was the first time I watched a winning baseball team, the first time I had hope and reason to believe my team wouldn’t suck forever.

Just once since Rollins became a full-time starter has he been part of a team that finished under .500 (in 2002, when the Phillies posted an 80-81 record). He — more than Chase Utley and Ryan Howard — is the face of what the Phillies have become. Perhaps Rollins has worn out his welcome with some fans in Philadelphia for various reasons, but you can be sure the majority are still in his corner. He’s a vital component of that locker room; one of the heartbeats, so to speak. The longest-tenured athlete currently playing in Philadelphia, it’s my hope that James Calvin Rollins III remains in a Phillies uniform for the foreseeable future. In the end, however, money will talk, and he’ll go where he feels most wanted. If Rollins does bolt (good friend C.C. Sabathia opined about San Francisco being a landing spot), there are some other stopgap options — Rafael Furcal or Alex Gonzalez, for example; perhaps even Jamey Carroll — who can hold down the position until Freddy Galvis, or whomever, is deemed ready. It’ll be different… and not necessarily a good kind of different. Also, don’t underestimate the makeup of the clubhouse and likely negative impact losing Rollins could have in that regard.

I want Jimmy back, and I want him to finish his career with the Phillies. He’s looking for five years, but I think four is a fair compromise… maybe at something like $40 million? Make it happen.

2) Closer/Bullpen

I think Ryan Madson is going to the highest bidder, and even though there’s the feeling that he’s the Phillies’ number one priority, I just don’t see them matching some ridiculous offer from a desperate team. It would be unfortunate to lose Madson, but that’s how the business goes. Guys like Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, and Francisco Cordero are the other headliners on the open market. However, there are a number of shrewd, cost-efficient options who could be had for less obscene amounts of money. Joe Nathan’s name has already already been mentioned, and that’s something I’d be on board with for the right price. It’ll be his second season back from Tommy John surgery, and even though he’ll turn 37 next month, I think the potential reward is well worth the risk. Might a two-year deal — at, say, $15 million — loaded with incentives do the trick? It will here, because this is my fantasy land.

Jonathan Broxton, Philadelphia’s favorite opposing closer, is another interesting option and perhaps a candidate for a change-of-scenery career revival. It doesn’t look like the Dodgers want to have anything to do with him, given his injury concerns and free-fall in performance. Broxton is coming off elbow surgery to clean out some “loose bodies,” thus completing a horrid year-and-a-half stretch that saw him lose his closer’s role and, really, the ability to be an effective relief pitcher. He will be turning 28 in June, so it’s not like we’re talking about a player in his late 30’s and clearly at the end of his career. Is Broxton another guy worth investing in as a reclamation project? Obviously it will be contingent upon whether teams are confident he can return to form. But remember, at his best, the hefty righty was a power arm with a fastball that hit triple digits and a devastating slider.

As for the player who most piques my interest, it’s definitely Jeff Samardzija. He had his $3 million option for 2012 declined by the Cubs on Monday; reports are that they want to re-sign him, but at a lower base salary. Looks like Theo Epstein’s going to try to sneak this under the radar and pull a fast one. Some smart team should make him pay for letting a young (turns 27 in January), valuable pitcher with high-end ability hit the open market. If I’m the Phillies, I’m targeting Samardzija and throwing out a sizable offer he’ll have trouble turning down. Everything about him screams worthwhile investment. Samardjia’s got a live, electric arm and plenty of potential to be a dominant pitcher going forward. He can fill any role in the bullpen, has closer stuff, and could even be converted into a starter. The possibilities are plentiful when it comes to such a versatile pitcher, and in a weak class of free agents, this is the guy who really caught my eye. Samardzija, in my opinion, has the highest upside of any reliever out there — perhaps any pitcher, period. Get him, Ruben. How about four years at $20 million, with a team option for a fifth year at $10-15 million. DO IT.

Another name I kicked around in my head was Frank Francisco. He’s toiled in relative obscurity his entire career and is most remembered for an unfortunate incident seven years ago that he probably wishes never happened. Once a regular reliever, Francisco has taken on intermittent responsibility as a closer in two of the last three seasons. While he definitely has closer stuff (mid-90s fastball and a hard splitter), his stats aren’t going to blow you away. Still, I think Francisco is a solid pitcher who could be had at a palatable price; the reason being that he’s had trouble, you guessed it, staying healthy. Ah, health, the ultimate wild card. Perhaps a switch to the NL after spending his whole career in the AL could be beneficial for Francisco, but none of that will matter if he can’t stay on the mound and off the disabled list. His ineffectiveness pitching back-to-back nights (scroll to #46) is alarming and has been lamented since his days with the Rangers. Nevermind, just talked myself out of it. I’ll pass.

On that note, I think the bullpen in general could use another piece or two. My major target would have been Javier Lopez, but he just signed a two-year, $8.5 million extension to stay with the Giants. You remember him for his particularly effective performance in last season’s NLCS. The Phillies need another lefty for the bullpen to pair with Antonio Bastardo… and it would have been nice to watch Lopez strike out opposing left-handed batters, instead of Utley and Howard. I’m actually pretty bummed about this. The Phillies should still focus on acquiring another veteran left-handed reliever. Perhaps the ageless Darren Oliver, who’s still interested in playing, if he can be lured away from the Rangers? At age 41, he’s still effective as ever, especially tough on lefty hitters, and has lowered his ERA in each of the last four seasons. I’m on board, provided the contract is only for one year. I’d also be fine with signing Mike Gonzalez, Oliver’s teammate, instead.

Edit: Shit, I forgot Todd Coffey is a free agent. I love Todd Coffey. He’d instantly become my favorite Phillie… and it’s definitely not only because of his herculean physique. But seriously, I like Coffey as a reliever and think he’s got underrated stuff.

In-house options to land bullpen roles with the Phillies: 

Justin De Fratus… Amaro isn’t sold on him as a possible closer, but De Fratus is the guy I’m most curious to see (followed by the next candidate).

Phillippe Aumont… viewed as the closer of the future but is said to need more seasoning in the minors.

Michael Schwimer… got a glimpse of him at at the end of the season, and I imagine he’ll get every opportunity to make the team in spring training. If Schwimer doesn’t make the team, he’ll be one of the first in-season call-ups.

Joe Savery… any possible way he could be a position player/emergency reliever combo? Because that would be awesome.

3) First base

I don’t see Ryan Howard being ready to start the season. Naturally, Amaro needs to figure out a way to fill the position in the interim.* If he decides that re-signing Ross Gload is the solution, I’m going to punch a baby in the face. And I love babies.

*Edit: I’d first try to pry Garrett Jones away from the Pirates. He can play first base and left/right field and hits for power (the kind that’ll make you say “wow”).

There are certainly options on the free agent market, with Derek Lee probably the most plausible; he’d be perfect as a temporary replacement. Once Howard returns, Lee could then transition to the role of valuable bench player, where he can pinch hit, serve as a late-game defensive replacement, and spell the big guy at first base from time to time. A funny thing happened with Lee after the Orioles — with whom he struggled mightily, to the tune of a .246/.302/.404 line — dealt him to the Pirates at the trade deadline. Following a stint on the disabled list with a hand injury, he returned to the lineup at the beginning of September and started to rake. In 83 at bats during the month, Lee put up a .349/.415/.554 line with five home runs and 15 RBI. Of course that’s not a large enough sample size to say he magically transformed into Derek Lee circa 2005-2009, but maybe there’s a little something still left in the tank.

Carlos Pena is available, but I have trouble believing he’ll sign somewhere to be a temporary starter and ultimately a backup (I would certainly want him on a one-year deal, though). Same goes for Casey Kotchman, who’s turning 29 and coming off a breakout season.

If it’s decided the fill-in for Howard should come from within the organization, there are three players in the running. John Mayberry, Jr. is the obvious selection, but he’s a plus defender in the outfield. If Amaro is serious about his stated desire to have Domonic Brown play a full season in AAA (I’d rather see him in the big leagues because I’m in favor of on-the-job training), Mayberry should be the primary option to start in left field and part of a platoon at first base. Now, who would be the other half of said platoon? Seems like Cody Overbeck and Matt Rizzotti are the most popular candidates.

First thing’s first: I’ve never watched either play. There are far better bloggers out there with detailed scouting reports about both Overback (bats righty) and Rizzotti (bats lefty), but I’ll touch on this anyway. It seems like the Phillies should explore the possibility of letting one of them start the season in the majors, especially given that this isn’t a protracted situation (or so we think). Overbeck has vaulted himself into the discussion as one of the organization’s better prospects, but I also think it would be a mistake for Rizzotti to not at least be in the discussion this offseason and during spring training. He has superior plate discipline and gets on base with aplomb, something the Phillies sorely need (better at bats would be nice, too). Rizzotti’s potential at the plate is enough to overlook that he’s a poor — very poor — fielder and runner, and he’s an intriguing platoon option with John Mayberry at first base until Ryan Howard is fully healthy. It was always a foregone conclusion that Rizzotti wasn’t going to get his chance to play in the bigs with the Phillies because he can’t be anything other than a first basement or designated hitter. Well, here we are, sans Howard, and an opportunity for somebody to step up. Rizzotti has gotten more ink over the years, but Overbeck is the more complete player and started to gain a lot of traction this past season. I think it’s more likely he gets the nod and Rizzotti, who’s been jerked around by the organization plenty, is banished back to baseball purgatory. However, if Charlie Manuel decides he wants the platoon at first base to feature a righty and lefty, Rizzotti could get his chance.

Edit: Welcome back, Gentleman Jim! Fantastic, hooray for nostalgia. It wasn’t a secret that Amaro and Manuel wanted to acquire Thome during the waiver trade period in August, but the Phillies’ record made that impossible. I’m actually disappointed in myself for not suggesting this… I just figured Thome could be nothing more than a DH or bench option in the AL, and I didn’t think the Phillies would sign a guy who couldn’t play the field (wait, is he going to play first base?). Then again, there was that Matt Stairs guy who was just a bat and didn’t play the field, and he did some good stuff.

4) Left field

Yeah, John Mayberry, Jr. is the front-runner to start in left, but what if he’s viewed as the short term solution at first base and Amaro doesn’t want to put Dom Brown out there? Free agent options to fill the void include Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, Grady Sizemore, and Ryan Doumit (who can no longer be an everyday catcher). Cuddyer is a popular suggestion, but he’s going to surely command more per season than the $10.5 million he made in 2011 and is below average defensively. On the plus side, he can also fill in at first base — second and third, too, if absolutely necessary — and crushes left-handed pitching (.311/.403/.589 in 151 at bats this past season; .300/.389/.569 in 496 at bats since the beginning of 2008). While Cuddyer’s a solid offensive player who’d likely see a bump in his power numbers if he switches to the NL (and Citizens Bank Park), I wouldn’t be willing to give him a long-term, big-money deal. In fact, I wouldn’t want to give a long-term contract to any of the aforementioned players,* though I would pursue DeJesus if he’s receptive to signing a shorter deal. He’s coming off his worst season but has proven to be a capable major leaguer over the course of his career — and I like his game. DeJesus can play all three outfield positions, displays a disciplined plate approach that has to appeal to Amaro, and is a consistent hitter (just look at his yearly averages) who uses the whole field. That said, you know who might deliver the best bang for your buck and is suited for a part-time/bench role? Jonny Gomes.

*Edit: Actually, Kubel wouldn’t be so bad as a fourth outfielder. Someone like Willingham, on the other hand, will demand to be an everyday starter, while Sizemore hasn’t been 100% healthy since 2008 (although getting him on a one- or two-year deal is something I’d explore due to the risk/reward factor).

5) Third base

Placido Polanco is in the twilight of his career, and the injuries are mounting up. While his glove work at third base is the best in the NL (congrats on the well-deserved Gold Glove), his hitting has fallen off a cliff — although that could have just been a symptom of his multiple injuries. For that reason, going forward I think it’s best to limit Polanco as an everyday starter and instead use him as a sort of super-utility player who can also spell Utley at second base. Another third baseman should be brought in to help lessen the workload. I would float Eric Chavez’s name, but it seems he’s retiring. Players like Aramis Ramirez and Wilson Betemit will want to be full-time starters, and unless Polanco is relegated to the bench permanently, neither seems like a fit in Philadelphia. The guy I’d be most interested in signing for this specific role is Jerry Hairston, Jr. (plays second, third, and outfield), who really came on strong for the Brewers down the stretch and in the playoffs after being acquired from the Washington Nationals. He’d be an excellent addition.

6) Backup catcher

Amaro will probably just re-sign Brian Schneider, but I’d try to get Chris Snyder instead, assuming another team doesn’t offer him the opportunity to start.

Projected lineup on Opening Day:

C: Carlos Ruiz

1B: Derek Lee

2B: Chase Utley

SS: Jimmy Rollins

3B: Placido Polanco

RF: Hunter Pence

CF: Shane Victorino

LF: John Mayberry, Jr.

Edit: I’m starting to think it might just be a better idea to sign an everyday left-fielder and use Mayberry as the interim first baseman. When Howard comes back, Mayberry can serve as the starting/fourth outfielder and backup at first.

Bench (overlooked, but must to be upgraded): David DeJesus/Jason Kubel/Grady Sizemore/Jonny Gomes, Cody Overbeck/Matt Rizzotti, Wilson Valdez/Michael Martinez, Jerry Hairston, Jr., Chris Snyder

Starting rotation: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, Joe Blanton

Bullpen: Michael Stutes, Darren Oliver, Justin De Fratus/Michael Schwimer, Antonio Bastardo, Jose Contreras, Joe Nathan, Jeff Samardzija (and I’d let Contreras, Bastardo, Nathan, and Samardzija duke it out for the closer spot)

Now go ahead and tell me why I’m a dumb, stupid idiot and your mock offseason idea is so much better.

“Moneyball” Review/Tito Eulogy

Guest Post — courtesy of Brian “Class” Callahan

Unprecedented success is not enough for the Boston Red Sox anymore, as evidenced by the team’s “amicable parting ways” with a leader who posted an undefeated record in two World Series.

In a recent heated debate in our U St. man-cave, I said the baseball manager is the most useless coach in all of sports. One person, who I will not name (Shimmy), said this was the stupidest thing he had ever heard. While I am always honored to receive such a designation, I failed to clarify my statement and will do so here: A baseball manager does not have the power to give (i.e. he cannot hit, pitch, run, or field), but he does have the power to taketh away. So why did the Red Sox make Terry Francona the fall guy when the team’s collapse was due to the very absence of what the team was constructed to do (e.g. hit and score a lot and field pitchers who can keep generous leads)? Better question still, how does a stacked team that combines sound player evaluation and acquisition strategies with deep pockets get wiped out by a team whose entire salary is approximately the same as other said team’s four starting pitchers?

The obvious answers, that the team had bad injuries, bad starting pitching, a bad attitude and ugly relief pitching, cover the terrain to a certain extent. What I think cuts to the core, however, is that the Red Sox threw out too much money and would have been better off with a team mostly comprised of bargain players, in-house prospects, and trusted veterans, with a few free agents du jour sprinkled in. The composition that played throughout the year was overpaid, overhyped, and in so being, positioned for a fall.   

In a similar case, the New York Yankees were eliminated in five games by the Detroit Tigers. Now how did a team, with an AL-leading 97 wins and monstrosity of a payroll, not defeat the Tigers? Since winning four titles from 1996 to 2000, the team has won one in 11 years. For most teams this is nothing to complain about. For a team that regularly signs the top free agents almost every offseason and has no limit on its spending thanks to a luxury tax structure in baseball that enables teams to pay as much as or — in the case of the Pirates, who have actually made money despite being inept since Barry Bonds fled town — as little as they want, this is somewhat of a head scratcher. The 2011 club had few weaknesses. Best lineup in baseball. A big game horse (or gongoloid) at the front of the rotation. I think, though, they shared a trait with the Red Sox in lackeying something the Tin Man once wanted: a heart.  

I will pit the lion’s share of the blame on Mr. Alex Rodriguez because he is the highest paid player in the game (and I like to make fun of him). I think the playoffs do not really matter to him because he validates his status as a player through the overall portfolio of work, which is probably framed as a giant checklist next to his picture of himself as a Centurion: MVP Trophy. Check. 500 Home Runs. Check. Biggest salary in sports history. Check. Kate Hudson. Check. World Series title. Check. In all likelihood, the last item that remains on that list for Rodriguez is overcoming the steroid scandal and conducting himself in a manner that will eventually lead to Cooperstown enshrinement. That is odd considering this player, who once had no ceiling, is now victorious if he can emerge from his own shadow. 

I am confident to doubt Rodriguez. He is an exemplary Ewing Theory player (according to Bill Simmons, a player whose departure makes a team better); the highest paid player in the history of team sports who validates his salary through individual results yet does not in terms of team results (as good as he was in 2009, that was a well-rounded Yankees club). The Mariners and Rangers improved significantly when he left, and unlike an iconic player like Michael Jordan or even a fellow baseball player like Albert Pujols, Rodriguez’s presence does not make the Yankees more likely to win. In fact, I think it makes them less likely to win.  

Now my hunch here, which is based on a mix of objective observation and subjective loathing, points to a character flaw. Not a swing. Not a hamstring. A central flaw that rests somewhere in the brain. This may not be a novel concept, but it is striking for someone who may go down with the best baseball numbers of all time. In the words of Bobby Jones on a game that forces a similar level of mental introspection, “Competitive golf is played mainly on a five-and-a-half-inch course…the space between your ears.”

Moneyball, as you may have heard elsewhere, is a film not as much about sports as it is identifying hidden value and leveraging that value to compete in a difficult environment. Yet take away the baseball scenes and the film would lack a pulse. I think a similar characteristic holds true to the book. Sabermetrics was nothing new when Michael Lewis’s book hit the bookshelves, yet front offices such as the Red Sox’s did not use the technique. To engage the audience, the story weaves tenets of sports adoration—the underdog, the comeback, the 20-game winning streak, the unbelievable— into a compelling tale that questions a certain mindset through the means of a sound and unique approach. 

Moneyball the film takes those same elements and goes a step further, depicting the architect of the radical approach as a man of conviction and a good father to boot. Brad Pitt gives a convincing portrayal of Billy Beane in a role that could net him an Academy Award, or at least give him a good shot at one (anyone who challenges the mighty wisdom of Philip Seymour Hoffman deserves a shot). Beane is a failed “can’t miss” prospect, divorcee, and general manager of a severely cash-strapped team playing in a football stadium that boasts of the biggest foul territory in the majors (at least it was when the book, I think Beane and his team took this into account as a statistic to evaluate at one point). He rarely watches his team’s, the Oakland A’s, games, an interesting trait for someone whose job relies on their outcome. 

The recent mainstream adoption of Sabermetrics makes it possible (I think Simmons said this at one point) for someone to not watch a single baseball game yet still understand how players are performing over the course of a season. The phenomenon may also be a way for someone who is inherently pessimistic to avoid watching the action that will be the cause of his dismay. If I had to watch the discussion between Theo Epstein and Francona live I would have been severely uncomfortable (heated arguments make me squeamish as it is) and am completely fine writing about the event as a commentator who is not really affected in any grand shape or form by the removal of a Red Sox manager and the announcement of the inevitable replacement. Beane functioned in a similar capacity, although his reasons for not watching may have been to remove himself from the emotion inherent in rooting for your team. Whatever the true answer, he proved to still be effective. In this light, Beane was not only the architect of the movement but the archetype of the armchair baseball statistician. 

How Beane distanced himself from the emotion of the game is a thread I think the film would have been better served to amplify. Moneyball the film could have spent more time focusing on the mental aspect of Beane’s failure as a player and the role it had in his reversal of fortunes as the team’s general manager (GM). I suspect this absence is due to the scriptwriters’ (Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, and Stan Chervin) interpretation of the story as more of a tale about money’s role in a major professional sport rather than the mental hindrances more applicable to baseball than perhaps any other sport. As a game made of intervals between quick spurts of action (home runs, the most valuable hit in the game, last mere seconds), baseball creates moments in time that lend themselves to the thought of what may happen in the ensuing moment. Since the immediacy of the moment means those thoughts center on the outcome of the subsequent play, a player can only dwell on the two possible outcomes, a hit, and joyous chaos, or an out, and a familiar order of frustration (ask Adam Dunn, or me over ten years ago).

In the book, Lewis discusses how Beane failed not because he did not have the tools to succeed (he had six of them, and there are only five), but rather how he dwelled on the moments that produced negative outcomes. Such a preoccupation seems to become habitual and saps positive energy that could be used to produce the positive outcome more often. 

Which brings us back to Mr. Rodriguez. Sure, he may have overcome the mental struggles to a certain extent. But is it really a success when your career is marked by your triumph over the somewhat true perception that you cannot produce when it matters (and that you admittedly cheated and still had a hard time getting hits when they counted the most)? While statistics may tell a different picture in years to come (despite his woes, Rodriguez has over 22 home runs with the bases loaded), team results in sport speak louder (or at least carry the immediacy of a championship moment rather than a press conference or the reporting of a most valuable player award). When teams are comprised of players who do not end up with the results a Sabermetrician from Yale would expect, well, that is where the 2011 Red Sox reenter the picture.

On paper, the ’11 Red Sox had a potent offense that scored 875 runs, and a pitching staff that allowed 737. The ’11 Rays scored 707 and allowed 637. That means the Red Sox allowed more runs than the Rays even scored. The Red Sox run differential was almost twice as large as that of the Rays, and yet they still collapsed in an abominable heap (which may actually have a positive effect in removing, or at least jading, overconfident or depressing-loss-virgin fans). Now the pitching may have been horrendous, but those numbers are still a tad unbelievable. You would think a team, which scored close to a 1000 runs and hit 203 home runs (at least one potentially game-changing moment per contest), would be a shoo-in for at least a playoff berth. But not this group, which struggled at the most inopportune time and paid the proverbial price. How does this make sense beyond the standard “Red Sox are chokers” reasoning? 

The clinching moments of Moneyball for me came when Beane challenged the people around him, whether it was the scouts hanging on to crude notions of player skill, Jeremy Giambi waving his belt around after a loss, or David Justice arguing his purpose being on the team. The confrontations pit the convictions of a man in a duel against the system that spawned his rise and fall. His vision is of baseball as a game of skill that can be influenced significantly by the brains on the field pulling the strings and the brains in the front office deciding how to cut the checks in the most cost-effective way possible. In this light, a successful GM then must predict not just the effectiveness of his group of players, but the ability of that group to persevere through the ebbs and flows of a 162-game season. When a franchise such as the Red Sox has the financial resources to acquire whomever it wants, that does not mean the team should go out and splurge at will. Chemistry always matters, and the quality becomes difficult when there are significant discrepancies in the salary figures between guys who may sit next to each other in the dugout. Character may rise above the potential jealousy I am speaking of, but players will always see their salary as evidence of their worth to a team. And when was the last time you heard a player taking a significant discount so that management could spread the love around? In a rare case that comes to mind, Tom Brady (okay, Peyton Manning has done so too, but I’m a bit of a homer) took a cut so the Patriots could lure more talent. The only problem? Management did not exactly return the favor, jettisoning players like Richard Seymour and insisting on building through the draft (which is not always a bad option, but it’s frustrating when you have a historically prolific offense at the helm suffering because of what happens on the other side of the ball). The lesson to all this brings us back to the obvious: sports’ contracts are ridiculous, and the financial systems that enable them are equally screwed up. Cases such as the Red Sox and Yankees reiterate this. Cases such as the Moneyball A’s foster hope. 

The scene when Beane sees the A’s nearly blow a game to clinch the AL record for consecutive wins in the regular season is the only time he is watching a live baseball game as a spectator in the film. He could only go because of how his daughter framed the magnitude of the moment, a moment where he connected with someone despite having little prior evidence to go on. The A’s jump out to an 11-0 lead and then slowly, piece by piece, break down. The unraveling echoes the opening video shots of the team losing to the Yankees because of a once-in-a-career play (by a guy who apparently received an opposite-mulligan on those) for a team that in no way shape or form deserves a lucky break or good karma of any form. Yet the A’s recover, spurred in the final moment by the former catcher who could not, in any way shape or form, possibly play first base and still produce. 

The final act of Moneyball hinges on whether Beane should accept a position as the Red Sox GM and become the highest-paid person in that position in baseball history. At the beginning of the interview, owner John Henry (played by Richard Arliss of Rubicon) asks Beane what to buy his assistant for her birthday. Beane shrugs and acts as if the question is nothing more than another discussion with the man who married his ex-wife about parenting his own daughter. As reported by Peter Keating in the recent ESPN The Magazine Boston-centric issue, Larry Lucchino, a partner in the brain trust who enhanced the Red Sox brand in recent years, wrote a list of desired traits that the “Ideal General Manager” would have, a key one being: “familiarity with, and willingness to use modern quantitative approaches in evaluating players.” Yet despite possession of that understanding, Henry still demonstrated a lack of understanding in a human relationship. Beane was impressed by the offer, but not enough to accept it. 

Real-life Beane probably suspected a similar flaw in the Red Sox proposition. Despite two World Series titles in seven years, not to mention putting out teams always in contention in the toughest division in baseball, Boston is close to or, depending on who you talk to, a team that may as well be the Yankees: An arrogant franchise in the top financial stratosphere that often feels disappointed despite being wildly successful in a game where you fail seven out of ten times and succeed. Beane’s doubts come into focus with the recent falling out between Francona and Red Sox management, and the rumors of Epstein fleeing in a goat costume to Chicago.  An 86-year curse can just as easily become an 86-day or 86-at bat curse when magnified by a particular light, or hampered by a nagging mental doubt. 2 on, 2 out, 2 strikes, and you haven’t been playing as well lately as you would like to, can’t quite seem to get over the hump that seems to define you yet does not speak to your true innate abilities—stttrrriiiiikeee 3, looking. 

When you consider the positions of teams such as the Red Sox, with unlimited fiscal and mental resources at their disposal, the actual reality of such teams, and the absence of a salary cap in MLB, then the fact that such teams do not always win and have problems that the poorest teams are expected to have is hopeful. The Rays were recently eliminated in the ALDS, yet with the second-to-last payroll in the entire MLB, stand as a shining example of what can happen when management takes the time to cross all the dots and maximize the value of available resources. The Red Sox did well to a certain extent but could not overcome their physical woes with a hit streak of invaluable mental fortitude [I will also never understand why the team had an apparent “rule” to not give pitchers four-year contracts, and used that to justify letting Pedro (who later reinvented himself with the Phillies and may have helped the Sox get over the Rays in the ’08 ALCS) go and then give an over-the-hill John Lackey a whopping five]. The Moneyball A’s achieved through a systematic acquisition and deposition of players who mixed well because they were all undervalued to a certain extent, overlooked by the big market clubs (either in draft, free agency, or through the traditional scouting lens), and motivated to succeed in a positive environment.   

Winning in the end is quantifiable to an extent. Chemistry between players and people in an organization is less formulaic and predictable, and it requires the mutual trust between multiple parties to bloom. The Moneyball A’s were a success (their World Series was that streak, which is a far rarer distinction than the annual title) yet have been bound to the natural ups and downs of the game as struggles in recent years come to show. Francona, Epstein, Henry and company brought titles to a starving city, yet their fracture reveals a crack that shows how money is a hindrance for everyone, no matter how much or how little of it you have, and that the ones who find a way to thrive with the resources they do possess are those who see through the fog and find an empowering sort of meaning that you cannot buy. 

They Fooled Us

So, that’s how it happened. It ended like this? Really? With the best regular season in franchise history and all those lofty expectations and dreams going down in flames as Ryan Howard — the chief symbol of frustration since winning the World Series in 2008 — himself went down immediately upon turning to run towards first base… where he would have been out by a mile anyway. Then about an hour after the game, the interwebs informed us that Howard likely — and since confirmed — suffered a torn Achilles tendon. There’s a strong likelihood he misses part (at least half?) of next season, and who knows how this will affect his career going forward. Odds are it won’t be positively. This is a serious injury, and that’s bad news for a slugger whose skills have been in decline for two years. Here’s where I’d typically add in the obligatory “insult to injury” line, and then annoyingly make sure I ram home the point that I’m being literal. Because, you know, you weren’t thinking that yourself, and other journalists/bloggers haven’t already written it ad nauseum.

Speaking of Howard, here’s how you know he was truly terrible as he went hitless in his final 15 at bats of the series: My sister, who doesn’t know shit about sports, pointed out his incompetence and was actually laughing at him. I’m not sure what’s worse, predicting that he’s going to strike out on three or four pitches or actually watching as it happens. Remember that at bat against Mark Rzepczynski in the top of the eighth inning of Game 4, with two outs and Utley at second base, with the score 5-3? I turned to my friend, the one and only Class Callahan, with whom I was watching and said: “Watch. This Howard at bat is going to last three pitches, four max. He’s probably going to be down 0-2, then he’ll feebly flail at a slider as it breaks away from him for the third strike.” Class found it especially hilarious when, three pitches later, on an 0-2 count (after looking at an 84 MPH meatball in the heart of the plate for strike two), Howard swung and missed at a slider that broke away from him and ended up out of the strike zone.

This really has turned into my worst nightmare, as far as sports scenarios go. But if there’s one good thing the Eagles’ crushing failures earlier in the decade did, it was force me to gain some perspective about sports and where they fit in with life. Ever since I’ve been at peace with the conclusion I made then: In the grand scheme of things and in terms of what’s really important, sports don’t matter. But the losses still hurt, especially when they happen like this. The Phillies just did their best Eagles impression. You know what I’m talking about. They fooled us into believing. And, like it felt with the Eagles, this season’s end is even more painful than the last. By the way, if you hear a ping of glasses tapping together, that’s just Jeffrey Lurie and Joe Banner toasting in celebration to the incredible demise of their in-town adversary.

The city loved this Phillies team because it was a winner. Was. As in past tense. As in three years ago, when that specific team won the World Series. That team was different from the rest. This new team was better than that one, at least on paper, but games aren’t played on paper. It had players who won before. That core was still intact, albeit older and, as much as the faithful reluctantly admitted, getting progressively more injury-prone. But that’s why we traded for Roy Halladay. That’s why we brought Cliff Lee back. The pitching was supposed to help mask an aging offense that wasn’t the juggernaut it had been at the start of the franchise’s most recent revival. In the end, it turns out the team’s greatest strength, starting pitching, couldn’t overcome its greatest weakness, a streaky offense.

It wasn’t supposed to end like this. So soon. So suddenly. So devastatingly. But it did, and the all too familiar hollow feeling that accompanies losing crept its way back into our ethos as Philadelphia sports fans. You dreaded it the whole game, from the very beginning. Even before the first pitch. I know you did, and it only got worse and more ominous as the innings went by with nary a run scored. It was in the pit of your stomach. That awful sinking feeling. You start verbalizing your doomsday premonitions and texting your friends, “This game is going to end 1-0, isn’t it?” You just know, and you are forced to sit there and watch helplessly as the worst-case scenario manifests itself on the field.

In a match up of Cy Young Award winners all it might take is one run to win, and the Cardinals got that all important run five fucking minutes into the game — off Roy Halladay, who, despite his undeniable greatness, is vulnerable early on. If teams are going to score on him, they better do it in the first inning. Otherwise, their chances decline drastically. For the second time in the series, leadoff hitter Rafael Furcal went on the attack before Doc was able to settle down and get a rhythm going. This time, with the count at two balls and one strike, the pesky Furcal — who got his sweet revenge on the Phillies after the ‘08 and ‘09 teams easily disposed of his Dodgers in the playoffs — smoked a ball into the gap for a triple (his second leadoff triple of the series, with the first coming off Cliff Lee). Then Skip Schumaker battled through an at bat that typified the Cardinals’ scrappy and never-give-in attitude, something we used to say about these Phillies. On the tenth pitch, he smacked a hanging curve ball into the right field corner for an RBI double. Then Chris Carpenter did the rest. Poor Doc deserved better than this fate, especially given his heroic performance after the first inning.

Friday night felt like the end of an era. The whole game just felt like one long, excruciating, inevitable end of an era. “Era.” I mean five seasons of success that followed six seasons of near misses and not even getting into the playoffs. With Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Madson slated to become free agents, two of the franchise’s drafted and developed players — and Philadelphia’s currently longest-tenured athlete in Rollins — could very realistically be wearing other uniforms next season. Rollins wants a five-year contract and has previously intimated there won’t be a hometown discount, while Madson is a Scott Boras client and will be looking to cash in on a career deal after finally establishing himself as a closer (reports would seem to indicate he’s probably ready to move on). Now add those two situations to Howard’s ordeal, and the fact that both Chase Utley and Placido Polanco will have to undergo offseason surgery for nagging injuries that affected their performances all season. There’s lots of uncertainty surrounding the future of the everyday lineup (but one certainty is Raul Ibanez won’t be back). All of a sudden, the reality and gravity of the situation kicks you in the face. Dare I say it, but it could be time for the Phillies to take a page from the Flyers’ book and radically alter the direction of the franchise. This is the offseason where Amaro really proves his worth as a general manager.

I didn’t write this in the playoff preview article because I didn’t want to ooze my normal pessimism, but when people asked me what I thought of the Phillies-Cardinals series, I’d tell them Phils in five. Yet I did so rather unconvincingly and with a hint of doubt in my voice. I’d tell them I was nervous, that the Cardinals were probably the worst possible matchup for this team. A guy at work (they tell me I’m supposed to promote more through social networking… so, yeah, here’s my plug: Buy something), let’s call him Chris, is a big Cardinals fan, and he fits the stereotype you hear about them being the best, most pleasant fans. Or whatever it is people say. When I started at my job, other people in the office told me Chris was a total baseball junkie. Naturally, it’s been a topic of conversation between us ever since. I asked him on Monday, September 12, if he thought his Cardinals had a chance to win the Wild Card. That was following a mini win streak, accompanied by a Braves mini losing streak, that cut the deficit from 8.5 games to 4.5 games in a week. “I guess I could buy into it,” Chris told me. We wished each other luck going down the stretch — “not that you guys need it,” he said. And so it went for the next two weeks, with the Cardinals catching fire and the Braves completely falling apart. Every night was essentially an elimination game for St. Louis, and they just kept on winning. The Phillies, on the other hand, really hadn’t played a game of significant magnitude at any point during the season. “You guys scare the shit out of me,” I replied.

Fast forward to the day after the conclusion of the regular season. Here’s how the conversation went between us.

ME: How are you feeling about this series?

CHRIS: I’ll be happy if we win a game. I’d be satisfied with that.

ME: Really? That’s it? I don’t think you’re giving your team enough credit. The hot team is always the most dangerous, especially in a short series. I see this thing going five and, objectively speaking, would probably even put money on the Cardinals. Carpenter and Garcia have had tremendous success against this lineup over the past few years. Plus, your offense is the best in the National League.

CHRIS: Seriously? You think we have a chance?

ME: Of course. I wasn’t kidding when I said your Cardinals scared the shit out of me. The Phillies aren’t invincible, and our offense, which is the epitome of hot/cold, hasn’t shown shown up in the last three playoff series.

CHRIS: Yeah, but your starting pitching…

ME: … is not invincible, either.

There’s a destiny feel to this Cardinals team. The impossible — until it wasn’t — run at the end of the season to overcome a 10.5-game deficit and earn a playoff berth on the final day. The whole being the hot team at the right time thing, and how it can often mean riding that wave of momentum over playoff opponents that have instead had sustained success over the course of the whole season. So really, when it counts, the hot team is the better team, the more tested team, the more mentally tough team. It always seems to work out that way, right? And make no mistake, the better team won this series. Even after the uneasy Game 3 win, I texted a few friends, “If there’s one thing I’ll say after watching these first three games, it’s that the Cardinals look like the better team.” I truly felt that way, and the last two games only further emphasized it.

Even though the initial feeling was more shock than devastation, I wasn’t that surprised by Friday night’s outcome. As the Phillies were ripping off wins at a torrid pace in August and early September, the natural cynic in me still couldn’t resist tempering my optimism with a healthy dose of cautiousness and concern. “Yeah, I just hope they’re not peaking too early — you want to be playing your best baseball at the end of September, not the beginning,” I told coworkers and friends who remarked how excited I must be about the Phillies. The eight-game losing streak that followed clinching the division title bothered me more than most fans. I had friends tell me to calm down, that Charlie was playing minor leaguers to give his regulars a rest, that the team was just coasting until the playoffs. Coasting? Fuck, I hate that word. None of it made me feel any better, especially since I don’t believe in flipping that proverbial switch and just “turning it on.”

Then the Phillies put their regular lineup back out on the field and won the final four games of the season, including a sweep of the Braves that made it possible for the Cardinals to win the Wild Card. I relaxed a little bit, figuring the guys had gotten back into their groove and were ready for October. For a minute, I let myself ignore the warning signs that popped up as the final month progressed. Polanco — playing through a sport hernia injury — had devolved into a singles hitter or automatic out, while Victorino and Utley struggled through September*, Howard suffered from a sore heel (FORESHADOWING!) and bursitis in his left ankle, and Hunter Pence was afflicted with patellar tendinitis. That Jekyll and Hyde offense was returning, just in time to break our hearts. At the conclusion of the 162nd game of the season, every Phillies fan had the same thought: Crap, I hope we didn’t just screw ourselves over now that we’ve ensured we have to play the hottest team in baseball. It’s a shame things worked out the way they did, but I’m not going to fault the Phillies for winning games.

*Edit: Victorino and Utley both rose to the occasion and had good series against the Cardinals at the plate (not so much in the field or on the base paths). Conversely, Carlos Ruiz, who hit .301 in September, went 1 for 17 in the NLDS. Very un-Señor Octubre of him.

Yeah, you can choose to blame Cliff Lee for blowing a 4-0 lead in Game 2, or Chase Utley for getting burned on two base-running risks in Games 4 and 5 (which literally never happens to him, but at least he showed up). However, if you actually have any idea what you’re talking about, you know the blame for this debacle rests squarely on the offense and its inability to manufacture runs or have good at bats in the most critical situations. Again. No killer instinct (the first inning of Game 4, for example). This team scored 11 runs in the first game, and then 10 total in the next four. Now things are officially going backward, and if the trend continues, the Phillies won’t even have a chance to lose in the playoffs in 2012.

A season of unparalleled hope and immense promise crumbled before our very eyes, in a fashion befitting a team that calls Philadelphia home. And the disastrous, surreal way it ended has got to be a first. That’s definitely a claim to fame, just not the one the Phillies were hoping to achieve. This pill is the most bitter of all to swallow, and you have to wonder if we’ve seen the last of a run that’s provided so much excitement and joy. But hey, at least Howard didn’t go down looking this time.

PS - How will the Eagles choose to pile onto our misery? I’m thinking they line up for a field goal with the score tied and three seconds left on the clock… only to have it blocked and returned by the Bills for a game-winning touchdown.

Edit: I wrote the above paragraph before the game but wasn’t yet finished writing/editing the whole post. Gotta hand it to the Eagles, they found a way to pile onto the misery. In spectacular fashion. Game recap coming tomorrow.

PPS - Go Flyers. I’m extremely excited about this team’s potential… it’s got a chance to be something special. Zach Parise thinks so, too.

Phillies Season Review and Playoff Preview

Alright, let’s get this out of the way first: Here are my predictions from spring training for all of Major League Baseball, as well as my season preview of the Phillies. I’ll just save you the trouble of reading through both and offer a brief overall summary:

What I was right about: Phillies (even if they exceeded my expectations), Brewers, Ryan Braun, John Axford, Michael Morse

What I was wrong about: Everything else (although I think I was just a year early on the Blue Jays)

With the Philadelphia Phillies’ historic 2011 regular season now over, it’s time to preview what everyone has been waiting for since Cliff Lee signed in December: October. I couldn’t be more thankful that September is nearly over.

Just in case you were worrying about the Phillies during that eight-game losing streak (the longest since 2000!), they wanted to let you know they are, in fact, ready for the playoffs. I am one of those people who was worrying. Then I thought about it some more and realized I wasn’t worrying, just being a little bitch. It was more the fact that I really hate losing, no matter what (even though I’m very used to it). The Phillies were routinely playing at least three minor leaguers in each of those games, and it was clear Charlie Manuel had a plan in place to give his starters some time off after a long regular season. There is the natural human reaction to relax once you’ve accomplished a goal and there’s nothing else on the line. Athletes are no different. Upon defeating the St. Louis Cardinals 9-2 on September 17, the Phillies captured the division title, clinched best record in the National League, and secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs. You know something? The starters deserved to take a break and relax before the postseason. This is a veteran team that was in the midst of a 33-game stretch in 31 days, due to all the rainouts from the previous month. Manuel basically gave his regulars a week off to rest, recover from their assorted ailments, and recharge the batteries. Not that he had to, but I’m sure Charlie made it known everyone was to be ready to go for the last five games as a sort of tune-up for the playoffs. Mission accomplished. Never doubt The Great Fuqua. I’m also liking this new lineup he’s concocted to play against right handed starting pitchers.

As we all know — and as people love to point out — the Phillies are an older team, by professional sports standards. Each everyday player not named Hunter Pence is over 30 years old. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Carlos Ruiz are 32 going on 33. Ryan Howard is 31 going on 32. Raul Ibanez is 39 going on 50 (sorry, I couldn’t resist). Placido Polanco is 36 going on 37. Shane Victorino is the youngest of the core at 30 going on 31. And each one of the players just listed has dealt with some type of injury during the course of the season. Rollins is two weeks removed from a stint on the 15-day disabled list with a calf strain. He’s playing for a new contract, and this team needs him to provide a spark at the top of the lineup. Utley’s nagging knee tendonitis has hampered his ability to generate as much power from his legs, and he’s just not driving the ball like he used to. While Chase is still one of the best (yes, best) second basemen in baseball, he hasn’t been the player who spoiled us in past seasons. But if there’s one thing that can always be said about Utley no matter how he’s performing, it’s that he’s a gamer. I’m feeling good about him in the playoffs, and the early returns of his move to the number two spot in the lineup are encouraging. Ruiz can do no wrong; he will forever be known in Philadelphia as Chooch and, when the playoffs arrive, Señor Octubre. Polanco dealt with a balky elbow early in the season and is now playing with a sports hernia that will require offseason surgery. He’s been on the disabled list a few times and is pretty much strictly a singles hitter now (130 hits, only 19 for extra bases). Fortunately, Placido is still the best defensive third baseman in the NL. Victorino has slumped mightily in the month of September, to the tune of a .186/.258/.319 triple-slash line (a .577 OPS) in 113 at bats. It was about time he came back to earth after a career season, but he seems to have found his swing again over the past week.

Ryan Howard’s right ankle still isn’t 100%, and even before hurting it he was putting up decreased power numbers for the second straight season. I know, he has hit 33 home runs and driven in 116 runs. But his .835 OPS ranks 19th in the NL (look who’s 18th) and 36th in the majors, and if you watch the Phillies regularly you know his skills at the plate are starting to decline. Bill Conlin would probably want you to believe I don’t appreciate Howard or have no idea what I’m talking about, but I just call it like I see it. That said, as one of the people concerned about the fact that Howard’s five-year/$125 million extension doesn’t start until next season, and someone who thinks we’ve probably seen his best days, I also feel obligated to come to his defense on the OPS argument. If you look deeper into the splits, you’ll see that Howard has performed extremely well in the most important situations: with runners on base and in scoring position. Here are the numbers…

Runners on base: .288/.390/.507 (.897 OPS) in 274 at bats; 14 HR, 97 RBI

Runners in scoring position: .298/.419/.497 (.919 OPS) in 161 at bats; 6 HR, 78 RBI

What’s more, with runners in scoring position and two outs, the Big Piece is coming through in the clutch, hitting .304/.455/.544 (.999 OPS) in 79 at bats with three homers and 35 RBI. Ryan Howard is a guy who gets paid an obscene amount of money to drive in runs. When those opportunities have presented themselves this season, he’s been more than able to deliver. It’s the .219/.301/.470 averages in 283 at bats with nobody on base — he’s not getting paid to lead off — that have skewed his overall OPS. Nevertheless, as we’ve seen in playoffs past, Howard has a propensity to struggle against elite pitching because he still gets himself out infuriatingly frequently. He just can’t help it. If I had a dollar for every at bat of Howard’s I’ve seen where he’s struck out without even getting a strike to hit, I’d have a fuck ton of dollars. He must be a disciplined hitter in the playoffs, or it’ll be the same shitty song and dance again.

Of course, what really made this team whole was the trade for Hunter Pence. Could there have been a better fit? Not only is his energy and style infectious, but he’s also the potent righty bat this team needed to replace Jayson Werth. A match made in heaven, for both player and city alike. Pence has thrived in his new digs, batting .324/.394/.560 (.954 OPS) in 207 at bats in 54 games, with 11 home runs, 26 RBI, and 35 runs scored. That’s in addition to 12 doubles, two triples, and, most impressively, 26 walks to just 38 strikeouts. Pence’s improved patience at the plate has made him an even more dangerous hitter because he’s unpredictable. If the pitcher tries to sneak a fastball by him to get ahead in the count immediately, Pence can still jump all over it and hit a moon shot. He’ll get a little goofy in the field at times and can slip and fall in lieu of catching the ball… but that arm of his — as the vanquished Braves can attest — is a weapon. There’s no question the Phillies have played their best baseball of the season since adding Hunter Pence to the mix.

We haven’t even mentioned the contributions of John Mayberry, Jr., who has made himself into a legitimate major league player with intriguing talent. I know Raul Ibanez is going to start, and that’s fine, but Manuel shouldn’t hesitate to replace him with Big John if the situation calls for it. Mayberry should be starting over Ibanez anyway. I know Charlie is loyal to his guys, but he also has an obligation to put the best nine players on the field. Mayberry is infinitely superior in the field and hits for more power. He covers the entire field with his gazelle-like strides and has a much stronger arm than Ibanez, which is to say he can actually throw out runners. Every team needs an unsung hero in the playoffs, and I have a feeling the Phillies are going to need John Mayberry, Jr.

The biggest question mark with this Phillies team is the bullpen. Kyle Kendrick will be used in long relief or for an emergency start. Michael Stutes is ready when needed but slowed down in the second half of the season, and David Herndon Joe Blanton is the extra arm. Wilson Valdez is always available in a pinch, of course. Adding Vance Worley is a major boost, and I’m interested to see how Manuel deploys him. The undisputed closer is Ryan Madson, and he’s pitching for a career contract. Remember that awful game in Washington in mid-August when he blew the save and gave up six runs, including the walk-off grand slam to Ryan Zimmerman? Well, Madson hasn’t given up a single run in the 16.1 innings he’s pitched since then. I’d say he’s ready. The former closer, Brad Lidge, is now a suprisingly effective arm in the bullpen who can pitch an any situation, despite pretty much just throwing variations of his signature slider at this point. If Antonio Bastardo falters in the eighth, Lidge will be his replacement. I shouldn’t have to tell you this, but that makes me incredibly nervous, regardless of his encouraging performance since coming off the disabled list. In an interesting twist of fate, Lidge could end up being the bridge to Madson at the end of games three years after they won the World Series in reversed roles.

Speaking of Antonio Bastardo, either his arm is fatigued after pitching the most innings of his life, or he’s plummeting back to earth. In truth, it’s probably somewhere in the middle. But when Bastardo’s on, his stuff is absolutely devastating. He was having a historic season before a disastrous final month. Remember, exactly four weeks ago, on September 1, Bastardo had pitched 52.1 innings, giving up 19 hits, 19 walks, and just eight runs, while striking out 65. Opponents were batting just .112 against him, which was the lowest for any pitcher in baseball history with at least 50 innings pitched. Bastardo’s WHIP was a preposterous 0.73 — he was having the most dominant season I’d ever seen from a Phillies reliever. Any reliever, really. Unfortunately, the complete and utter dominance didn’t last. September provided a reality check, as Bastardo pitched just 7.1 innings and gave up nine runs, raising his ERA from 1.38 to 2.64, his WHIP to 0.93, and opponents’ batting average to .144. He gave up at least one run in a stretch of five of seven appearances (he had 10 total during the month). Before September, Bastardo had given up a run in just seven of 54 appearances. However, he was sharp in his most recent outing against the Braves, and hopefully he’s well rested for the playoffs. You need look no further than Atlanta for what happens to a team when its young relievers start to tire and wear down from an excessive workload.

Oh, and the starting pitching has been pretty good, too.

This is a Phillies team that has been built for October. The last six months have been a joy ride of unprecedented proportions, but now the REAL season begins. It’s time to accomplish the only goal that anyone actually cares about. St. Louis presents a formidable foe in the form of the hottest team in baseball (23-8 in their last 31 games). Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Matt Holliday* occupy the middle of the lineup. Yadier Molina’s having a career season with the stick while still providing his unmatched defense behind the plate, and the unheralded Jon Jay and David Freese both came on strong in September. The Cardinals boast the best offense in the National League (much like Cincinnati did last year), not to mention an underrated starting pitching staff — led by Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, and noted Phillies killer Jaime Garcia — that has persevered through a season without Adam Wainwright. It should be a challenging first test for the Phillies, but nobody said winning this thing would be easy. 

*Update: Matt Holliday might (or might not) be out with a hand injury. If he can’t go, Allen Craig is in. Craig has been pretty good in his own right, just not against the Phillies.

Just Going to Put This Out There…

Prince Fielder will be signing with the Washington Nationals this offseason. It makes way too much sense on multiple levels. Observe:

First, Fielder is a Scott Boras client (as are Jayson Werth, Stephen Strasburg, and Bryce Harper). Contrary to popular belief, Ted Lerner does not own the Washington Nationals. Scott Boras does. Also contrary to popular belief, Mike Rizzo does not control the team’s personnel decisions. Scott Boras does. The Nationals are his little piggy bank bitch. Remember, we’re talking about a guy who convinced this (desperate) franchise to fork over $126 million on a seven-year deal to Jayson fucking Werth. Why wouldn’t he go back for more, especially when he can sell a superior player?

Second, Prince Fielder has made it no secret over the past few years that he’ll be going for the fattest, most lucrative contract made available to him. Notable rich teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies are not in need of a first baseman. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Orange County of the great state of Mexifornia and their owner, Art Moreno, are never shy about anteing up to get their man in free agency. It would seem, however, that the organization is committed to Mark Trumbo (Edit: Originally had “Mike” — was thinking of Angels super prospect Mike Trout) as the future at first base. Same goes for the financially precarious Mets, who have Ike Davis (dude’s really good); they’ll be spending all their money to re-sign Jose Reyes, anyway. The Cubs also have the resources to sign anyone they want and could certainly be a player in both the Fielder and Albert Pujols sweepstakes. But, as we saw last offseason, the Washington Nationals are hellbent on becoming a respectable, competitive franchise. The Jayson Werth contract, laughably idiotic and ridiculous as it was, was ownership and management’s way of announcing that they’re ready to step into the marketplace and spend with the big boys. Signing prized free agents to supplement its burgeoning young talent is “Phase Two” of the Nationals’ master plan to build a contender, so said Mike Rizzo last summer. And the franchise wants to create a buzz and become a legitimate fixture in the DC sports landscape, right? Well, I’d say a 27-year old Prince Fielder fits in quite nicely with that vision. Crazy money aside, don’t tell me the mammoth slugger wouldn’t be interested in getting out of Ryan Braun’s shadow in Milwaukee, being THE marquee guy (at least on offense) in a major American metropolitan sports market, and turning Nationals Park into his own personal launching pad. 

Edit (8/31): Ooooh, the Blue Jays could/should definitely be in the mix as a dark horse in the Fielder sweepstakes.

Third, the Nats are close to being a serious contender. Real close. Stephen Strasburg will be back in 2012. Bryce Harper will likely be a regular by 2013, at the latest (I think he should play center field in the majors, by the way, if the team remains committed to Werth in right). The possibility exists for a middle of the lineup consisting of Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, and Mike Morse (who has made me look much smarter and more clairvoyant than I really am; he’d transition back to left field with the Fielder signing). If things go right for the Nats and continue to go terribly wrong for the Redskins, Washington, DC, will be a baseball town in relative short order. And I mean that sincerely. This is a bandwagon city to the max, and the people here just want to see a winner. The Nationals have an unprecedented opportunity to fill the sports void that the hapless Skins have created and the Caps can’t take advantage of because nobody gives a flying fuck about hockey. So many people already wear fucking Nationals hats as some sort of fashion statement despite probably being unable to name five players on the roster; the only logical next step is to, you know, drum up enough interest to actually get them to watch and follow the team.

Prince Fielder: 7 years/$150 million. It’s happening, call it a hunch. Also, the only reason I’m even writing this is so that I can gloat about it like a smug asshole if I happen to be right. As long as you know that.

Giving a long-term deal to a player of Fielder’s, uh, build is a considerable risk going forward because, barring a radical body transformation, the odds of him aging gracefully aren’t exactly favorable. However, the immediate rewards of plugging such a prodigious power hitter into your lineup have serious potential, both on the field and at the ticket office.

Edit (8/31): If you choose to believe what a “baseball source within the Nationals organization” said concerning the team’s supposed lack of interest in Prince Fielder because it has Adam LaRoche under contract for 2012 (at an $8 million price tag), that’s your prerogative. Admittedly, I forgot LaRoche, out for the season since May after shoulder surgery, signed a two-year deal. Forgive me. When healthy, he’s a fine first baseman who plays excellent defense and has put up sneakily solid offensive numbers over the course of his career. Regardless, LaRoche isn’t the kind of player who’s going to excite the masses and get fickle fans to show up to the ballpark on a nightly basis. Neither is Jayson Werth. You know who is? Prince Fielder. The potential synergy of pairing Fielder with Stephen Strasburg and, eventually, Bryce Harper is a pretty enticing proposition, no? I understand that Mike Rizzo is fixated on getting a center fielder, but there don’t appear to be any legitimately appealing candidates in free agency to fill the position (unless you want to count the oft-injured Grady Sizemore, who’ll be part of the class if the Indians decide to decline his $9 million club option). He could still always trade for Denard Span, which almost happened at the deadline in exchange for Drew Storen, or even B.J. Upton. Team source or no team source — because, as we all know, a team source would NEVER intentionally disseminate false information to a journalist — my opinion hasn’t changed: Signing Fielder is the right move for the Nationals as the organization tries to build a winner.

On Domonic Brown

I’ve already cast my lot as someone fervently against trading Domonic Brown for a player like Hunter Pence or Carlos Quentin because I don’t think he’s that far away from fulfilling the promise the Phillies, other organizations around the league, and independent scouting services (like Baseball America) have seen/see in the soon-to-be-24-year old right fielder. Patience, people, PATIENCE. It’s a fucking virtue. I know he’s not consistently ripping the cover off the ball and his defense leaves a lot to be desired at the moment, but step back from the ledge. Go look at Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins’s stats through the first 87 games of their career. Or click on the hyperlinked title of this post and scroll down to find Mike Schmidt’s numbers over the same stretch. Don’t give up on promising young players just because they’re not Buster Posey-ing all over the opposition’s face with regularity the second they hit the big leagues.

It’s like the majority of fans don’t even understand how rare it is for rookies, even super-stud prospects, to immediately become impact players at the major league level — which they probably don’t because most fans are dumb. Instead of having such ridiculously high standards, look at whether the player is taking steps toward improving. Are there certain parts of his game making progress? Does he seem to be learning and adapting? Read the linked article and tell me Brown isn’t making strides. People who dismiss his skills after 87 games and 271 plate appearances simply aren’t worth listening to. Double both of those numbers and we’ll start to get a better idea of what Brown might be going forward.

I want to win the World Series this year just as much as the next Phillies fan, but simply replacing Domonic Brown with a right-handed bat in right field while relying on Raul Ibanez’s notoriously streaky, defensively atrocious corpse at the other corner outfield spot is not the way to go. Not for this season, and certainly not into the future.

Edit (8/3/11): Well, maybe it is, in fact, the way to go… for now (and Brown should replace Ibanez in left field next season).

Phillies Midseason Report

Here we are, 94 games into the season, with the Phillies sitting at 59-35. That’s the best record in the majors, but at the moment it only provides a 3.5 game cushion over the hard-charging Braves. As I said in the season preview, this race is going all the way down to the wire because the Braves will be there until the bitter end. With the second “half” of the season officially underway after taking two of three from the Mets over the weekend, let’s take a look at how we got here.

The Good: Pitching. As expected, the starting pitching has been the team’s backbone, and the bullpen has actually been a pleasant surprise. The Phillies rank second in baseball in ERA (3.12), first quality starts (62), and second in WHIP (1.18), while ranking seventh in BAA (.241). The starters’ collective ERA is 2.99 (first), while the bullpen’s is 3.45 (13th). 

The four-headed monster of a starting rotation has been whittled to three because of Roy Oswalt’s meddling back injury that will sideline him until at least August. Luckily, his cohorts of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels have been as advertised. Halladay is Halladay and Lee is Lee (despite walking more batters), but Hamels has been the most impressive of the three — save for his most recent start against the Mets — and could very well thwart Doc’s quest to repeat as the NL Cy Young Award winner. It won’t be long now before he gets his mega-contract with an average annual value of $20 million, and hopefully the Phillies are the team that gives it to him (there’s no justifiable reason to let Cole ever wear another uniform). And to the minority collection of ungrateful asshole fans in this city who doubted Hamels or simply chose to forget how good he is, on his behalf allow me to extend a hearty FUCK YOU.

Most impressive statistical accomplishment: Something tells me you remember Cliff Lee’s immaculate month of June, in which he put up the following numbers…

42 IP, 21 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0.21 ERA, Record: 5-0. You can’t even do that in a video game while playing on rookie mode. Completely insane. And he did all that despite a pedestrian 29/8 K/BB ratio. In addition to his pitching, how much fun has it been to watch Lee bat? Holy shit. No wonder he wanted to come back to the NL, he loves being able to hit and help his own cause. No joke, I was actually hoping Charlie would let him DH for a game in one of the interleague series.

I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention Vance Worley, who’s making himself into a legitimate major league starter. I love his two-seam fastball and the moxie with which he pitches. Worley’s mental makeup is remarkable and his mound presence is swagtastic. He believes he belongs at this level, and that kind of confidence is manifesting itself in his performances. While I’m still not sure if Worley projects as anything more than a #3 or #4 starter, I do like watching him pitch. Also, props to the much-maligned Kyle Kendrick, who has been one of the best #5 starters in baseball. Somehow.

As for the bullpen, where would this team be without the contributions of Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes? Those two young arms have saved the Phillies’ ass numerous times. Without them, it’s not at all a stretch to say we’re in second place behind Atlanta. For fuck’s sake, after Madson went on the DL, Charlie tabbed Bastardo, apparently the teams’ fourth-string closer, to take over the role. All he did was convert each of his first four save opportunities without giving up a single hit (and only one total baserunner via a walk). Bastardo’s stats right now are just silly and likely unsustainable (right?). He’ll come back down to earth at some point over the course of the rest of the season, which is something I’m expecting because of his workload. Bastardo has already pitched 33 innings so far, while his total innings pitched for his career coming into this season was 42.1. Still, right now… wow. With Madson set to come off the DL, Bastardo should return to his role as the setup man.

And Michael Stutes… well, what more can I say about the way ol’ Stutesy has performed up to this point? He’s another guy who exudes confidence and demonstrates a strong mound presence, despite his slight appearance. Stutes doesn’t care who he’s pitching against and isn’t intimidated by anything. Sweet hair, too, can’t forget about that.

The Bad: Offense. In essence, things have played out exactly as we expected. The offense has vacillated between struggling mightily to score runs and ripping the cover off the ball. That’s how it goes. However, the fact remains that the Phillies are a middling offensive team, at best. They rank 14th in baseball in runs scored (401), 20th in batting average (.249), 10th in on base percentage (.322), and 21st in slugging percentage (.380). Blech. Everyone aside from Shane Victorino — who’s putting up the best numbers of his career but has also made a few trips to the DL — is having a subpar year at the plate. I don’t care how many RBI Ryan Howard has, his OPS is .805, which ranks 55th in the majors. Please, go ahead and give me a good reason why I shouldn’t feel as though he’s trending downward as a hitter. But look on the bright side: That horrendous contract of his doesn’t even start until next season! Awesome. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Amaro during his tenure as general manager, it’s that he’s much better at making trades than he is at handing out contracts. Anyway, at least Chase Utley’s knee tendonitis doesn’t appear to be as troublesome an injury as so many, myself included, thought it would be. Then again, he’s also on pace to put up the lowest power numbers of his career and at the plate doesn’t resemble the player we’ve been accustomed to watching over the years.

We still don’t know what we have in Domonic Brown, but the raw skills are evident. Even though his long and loopy swing concerns me, when when he hits the ball… whoa. All the tools are there, but will the holes in his swing inhibit him from reaching his potential at the plate? We’ll see. I know there is a growing number of doubters out there, but, personally, I don’t think he’s far away from harnessing his talents and fulfilling the hype that has accompanied his ascent through the organization over the past few years.

The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away, and as much as Amaro says getting another bullpen pitcher is his main focus, you know he’s keeping his eyes peeled for a right handed hitter with some pop. The options that seem to be out there are as follows:

Hunter Pence (The most talked-about player on the market, aside from the last guy on this list, but the price tag will likely be prohibitive because I imagine any proposed deal will start with Domonic Brown/Vance Worley, before adding a prospect like Jarred Cosart, Jon Singleton, or Sebastian Valle — probably two of the three.)

Carlos Lee (Houston would literally pay a team to take on his contract; if El Caballo didn’t have another year left on that horrific deal, I just might be willing to give him a chance, especially because he wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects.)

Michael Cuddyer (Supposedly the Twins are reluctant to trade him, and if they continue to gain in the standings in the AL Central, he’ll remain with the team. If the Twins fall out of contention over the next two weeks, holding onto Cuddyer makes little to no sense, given his impending free agency at the end of the season.)

Reed Johnson (Having a career year, and while I highly doubt he continues his .915 OPS pace, he would cost significantly less than other more glamorous options and could end up being a low risk/high reward pickup.)

Ryan Ludwick (I’d take him, but I’m not giving up anything substantial.)

Josh Willingham (Again, a guy I’d definitely take a flyer on, but I wouldn’t give up a top prospect for him.)

Jeff Francoeur (Charlie likes him, and I wanted him in free agency; would the Royals deal him?)

Melky Cabrera (Having a career year and, despite how long he’s been around, is still very young — turns 27 in a few weeks.)

Marlon Byrd (It would be funny to reacquire him now that he’s made himself into a serviceable major leaguer.)

Carlos Beltran (Of course he’s on the market, but I see no scenario where the Mets trade him to us unless we severely overpay.)

As for bullpen arms… the name you hear the most is Heath Bell, but just like with Pence, the asking price might end up being too much. I don’t think Amaro will be acquiring anybody who gets fans excited. A few names to remember, however: Koji Uehara (having an incredible season), Jon Rauch, Brandon League, Rafael Betancourt, Huston Street, Sean Marshall, Randy Choate (lefty specialist allowing a meager .093 BAA to left-handed hitters), Mike Adams (I’d probably take him over Bell, honestly, if the price is right), even Joakim Soria (he’s looking more like the Soria of old over the past month and a half).

Let’s also remember that with the Phillies about $3 million away from the dreaded luxury tax threshold, making a transaction isn’t some forgone conclusion. Don’t be surprised if the team right now is the same one you see on August 1 after the non-waiver trade deadline passes.

Regardless of what happens, one thing is clear: This team will continue to be buoyed by its pitching. We can only hope the offense gives enough support along the way and certain players get hot at the right time (which is what happened with the Giants last season). Personally, I’d rather be able to bank on something other than flimsy, fragile hope.