Why Angel Pagan is a Better Signing than Michael Bourn

David Murphy over at High Cheese touched on this two weeks ago, but I thought I’d take it a step further. Please, Ruben, don’t do anything rash and stupid this offseason. The last thing this team needs is for you to go out and give another unnecessary, overpriced contract to one of the most hyped free agents on the market. It’s not smart, and it’s not a cost-effective strategy. If anything, most of the time the ramifications of the decisions don’t yield desired results. The Phillies need to resist the urge to sign Michael Bourn to the, what, six-year, $80 million contract that Scott Boras will demand? I know everyone is popping wood over possibly bringing him “home,” but let’s look at this objectively. Bourn is having a career year, it doesn’t mean he’s destined for more. He still strikes out way too much for a leadoff hitter, turns 30 in December, and it’s reasonable to think his game will drop off once he starts losing a step, seeing as how this is the first time he’s slugging over .400 in a season. It’s tough to definitively judge Bourn fairly because of the terrible Astros teams he played on prior to joining the Braves, but you still have to go by what you see and how you feel about his game. Listen, I think Bourn is a nice player, but he’s not someone you pay $80 million. Unless you’re fiscally irresponsible and lack any imagination and ingenuity whatsoever when it comes to building a team, that is.

If you watched the Phillies regularly from 2008 through 2011 — and I get the feeling you just might have — then you remember Angel Pagan from his days with the Mets. He didn’t play particularly well against us overall (.688 OPS), but he did have some huge games and always proved useful even when not at his best. Pagan will turn 32 in July 2013, but, say, a four-year investment should cover at least two or three seasons of prime production. I’d feel even better about the contract because he has proven this season that he doesn’t need to rely on his speed to be effective. Oh, and obviously having the surname “Pagan” — even if it’s not pronounced that way — juxtapositioned with the first name “Angel” is pretty cool. He could have his own “Pagan Gods” cheering section at Citizens Bank Park. Come on, gotta make that happen. Oversensitive religious nutjobs be damned.

For the sake of the Phillies and ensuring financial flexibility moving forward, Amaro would be wise to, instead of throwing an obscene amount of money at Michael Bourn, sign Pagan to a four-year, $32-34 million contract. He has similar, if not better, offensive stats to Bourn with the speed to steal 30 bases. Pagan has a slightly higher slugging percentage (.426) than Bourn (.421) this season, and their numbers are relatively even across the board (have a look for yourself). Dig deeper and you’ll see that Pagan has 73 less plate appearances (58 less official at-bats) than Bourn, so the discrepancy in production essentially balances out. For their careers, Pagan has a better plate discipline rate (check FanGraphs), as well as a slugging percentage and OPS 50 and 44 points, respectively, higher than Bourn. Now, if you want to argue that Bourn is a superior defender to Pagan, the Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) advanced metric certainly agrees with you. Still, is that difference between the two, though considerable, worth an extra $40-50 million? Tune in for the current Braves/Giants series and judge for yourself as Bourn and Pagan go head-to-head. Pagan has really stepped up his game since the Melky Cabrera suspension.

In summation: Discipline and thriftiness, Phillies. Start practicing both, and stop spending money recklessly. Giving $80 million to Michael Bourn would qualify as “recklessly,” sorta like giving $50 million to Jonathan Papelbon.

2012 National League Preview

Yes, I’m late, but whatever, I do what I want. This won’t be as extensive as Class’s American League preview, but maybe that’s a good thing.

NL East

This division is going to be a bloodbath, and I’ve been saying for months now that it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Phillies’ reign as champions comes to an end.

1. Florida Miami Marlins (Record: 92-70)

Do people realize how preposterously stacked this team is, especially on offense? Just take a look at the lineup. A core of Hanley Ramirez (mercurial yet undeniably blessed with rare talent), Mike Giancarlo Stanton (he’s going to hit 50 home runs at some point), Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, and Emilio Bonifacio was enhanced by the signing of Jose Reyes in the offseason. Let’s also not forget the Marlins added Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano (can a change of scenery and union with the equally loco Ozzie Guillen revive his career?) to a starting rotation that features one of baseball’s premier pitchers in Josh Johnson, as well as Heath Bell to fill the closer’s role. If this team stays healthy, I honestly think it’ll win the division.

As for the new ballpark… well, Lance Berkman is not a fan. After last night, I doubt Giancarlo Stanton is either. It looks like Marlins’ owner Jeffrey Loria went for style over substance with this grandiose construction, and it could end up being to the detriment of his own team.

2. Philadelphia Phillies (Record: 91-71)*

There’s a distinct whiff of fear in the air in Philadelphia about what the summer holds in store for the geriatric Phillies. It took some time for the uneasiness to become full-blown panic, but we’re almost there. In fact, if you heed the warnings of writers and listen to sports radio, we’re already there. Let’s delve into the reasons for hysterics:

- Our old, injured team is, in fact, old and injured. Who knew? Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the starting left side of the infield, represents a combined financial commitment of $155 million. Both players are out indefinitely, and there exists a real — fine, likely — possibility that their best years are behind them.

- Chase Utley’s degenerative knees have him on the fast track to early retirement. Even if that statement proves untrue, the unfortunate reality is it looks more and more likely that the Chase Utley of the past is no more. We were incredibly spoiled in getting to witness one of the best five-year stretches for any second basemen in baseball history, and it’s never easy to acknowledge when a dominant player begins to decline.

- Ryan Howard, even when he’s healthy enough to play, won’t be truly 100%, back-to-normal healthy probably until next season. Add that to the fact he’s already begun his decline, and I have an ominous feeling about the Big Stick in 2012. Specifically, I envision a player whose base strength won’t be at its usual level, but whose plate discipline will remain erratic. In other words, expect to see a further decrease in Howard’s power numbers while he still helplessly flails at curveballs and sliders a foot off the plate. All for the sparkling price of $125 million over the next five years. Can’t wait.

- Remember Rany Jazayerli’s inflammatory article on Grantland near the end of last season that rankled Phillies fans and prompted them to get all defensive? Well, I maintain that the reason so many Phillies fans cried blasphemy and went into vitriol-spewing mode is because Jazayerli was just articulating their deepest fears. At least that’s how I felt about it. The guy is smart — really smart — and knows his baseball. His prediction of imminent doom for the Phillies beyond 2011 wasn’t novel in thought, but it was the proverbial turd in the punch bowl that was an otherwise sublime season. Now, over seven months later, Jazayerli’s warning smacks of painful prescience. This could be the worst Phillies offense we’ve seen in quite some time. Baseball Prospectus forecasted the Phils would score the least amount of runs in the NL East (30 fewer than Washington) and be among the NL’s worst offenses. Considering some of the downright ugly lineups Charlie Manuel will have to trot out this season, there’s little reason to believe that projection is way off base. Having great pitching is essential, but teams still need to score more than a few runs per game to win. Best case scenario: The Phils are relatively healthy by the end of the year and get hot at precisely the right time, ala the 2010 San Francisco Giants.

- Who plays left field? For now, it’ll be a combination of John Mayberry, Jr., Laynce Nix, and Juan Pierre. I’m still holding out hope for Domonic Brown and am higher on him than so many other Phillies fans who have jumped ship. I saw a lot of improvement at the plate during his stint in the majors last season (especially with pitch selectivity), although there’s no doubt he remains a relative disaster in the outfield and needs to improve there if he ever hopes to play regularly in the big leagues. Come on, Dom, put it all together.

Now for the good:

- JIM THOME IS BACK! It’s only fitting that the guy who signed a mega-contract in Philadelphia nearly a decade ago as the Phillies were beginning their ascent is coming back for what in all likelihood will be his final season. I don’t care if Thome plays some first base and totally stinks up the joint — I’ll still love him just the same. He’ll be an invaluable member of the team both as a bench player and clubhouse presence. I can just imagine Gentleman Jim hitting a clutch pinch-hit home run late in the season to vault the Phillies to victory in a must-win game. One can dream, right?

- The starting staff is still led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels, with Vance Worley and Joe Blanton rounding out the final two spots. Halladay had some velocity concerns in the middle of spring trainer and seldom resembled his usually precise self. The good news is he threw the ball better his last two starts and looks fine to start the season. Lee dominated his final two starts when Charlie treated it like a regular season game and let him go six innings. Hamels’ performance during the spring has fluctuated, but he’s throwing the ball really well and is still very much in his prime as a pitcher. The man is going to get paid, and I hope it’s by the Phillies. Truth of the matter is that none of the big three endear themselves to me quite like Vance Worley does. Here’s a guy who was always in the second tier of prospects when you read reports about the Phillies’ farm system and never exactly dominated in the minors. Yet the Vanimal resembles his nickname in both appearance and demeanor. With those thick, black-rimmed glasses protecting a menacing stare and a flat-brimmed hat snugly resting on top of his mohawk, Worley reminds you of a character you could’ve seen in Major League. Big Joe Blanton, fresh off elbow surgery, looked strong and sharp during the spring. You could do a lot worse as far as fifth starters go.

With that kind of starting pitching, a team will always be in contention. Still, as we saw in last year’s playoffs, it doesn’t matter how good the pitching is when the offense can’t score.

- Jonathan Papelbon, while grossly overpaid, should fit in quite well with both this team and city. At first, I was incredulous that the Phillies sunk $50 million over four years into the closer position (though at least it wasn’t spent on hard-luck Ryan Madson), especially when that money should have been used to upgrade the offense. But then I realized there’s nothing I can do about it and that I might as well start prepping my Papelboner. If he can manage to convert saves at an 85+% clip, I’ll be satisfied. So far, so good after one game. I also hope Papelbon can serve as a mentor to possible future closer Phillippe Aumont when he gets his chance with the Phillies.

- Congratulations to Joe Savery for making the final roster. It’s been a long, strange trip for the former 2007 first round draft pick out of Rice, who’s gone from starting pitcher to first baseman to relief pitcher during his time in the organization. He has finally settled in as a lefty reliever and even seen an increase in velocity. If Savery can also serve as an emergency pinch hitter (ala Micah Owings), he’ll automatically vault himself to folk hero status among Phillies fans.

- Freddy Galvis. As a result of the Utley injury saga rearing its ugly head once again, the Phillies were forced to switch Galvis, a shortstop by trade and one of the organization’s top prospects, over to second base. The 22-year old Venezuelan has seamlessly transitioned his slick-fielding ways to the position and will be the starting second basemen on Opening Day. Charlie Manuel, along with just about everyone else, has raved about Galvis’s natural ability and baseball IQ (both in the field and on the bases). His ability with the glove has never been in question, even dating back to when the Phillies first started scouting him at age 14, but it’s how he develops as a hitter that will ultimately determine his long-term potential in the majors. For someone labeled as an “all glove, no bat” prospect, Galvis had a remarkable spring at the dish, to the tune of a .280/.295/.476 line with 9 R, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 2 BB and 8 SO in 82 AB. Remember, before 2011, Galvis had cracked .600 OPS in the minors just once. However, he was also always the youngest player on his teams and still maturing physically. Galvis came into camp in February noticeably stronger, after having added around ten pounds in muscle during the offseason, and it reflected in his stat line. Don’t expect a .771 OPS, but if he can manage to hover around the .700 mark — however unlikely that may be — while playing stellar defense, it would be a godsend.

Unfortunately, nothing gold can stay, and my outlook on this season is more grim than I would like. I’ve already come to grips that this most recent golden era of Phillies baseball is rapidly drawing to a close, and, as much as it pains me to invoke the thought, I wouldn’t be surprised if they miss out on the playoffs altogether. While completely arbitrary and not grounded in statistical data, missing the playoffs in 2012 would follow the downward trend that started with the World Series victory in 2008:

2009 - Lost World Series

2010 - Lost NLCS

2011 - Lost NLDS

While the demise of the Phillies is being greatly exaggerated (I hope), it’s apparent that the current core is indubitably on the decline. Brace yourselves, Phillies fans, the fun — and, oh, how much fun it’s been — is just about over. Let’s hope they defy the odds and have another (last?) run left in them, but I’m lacking confidence, just in case you couldn’t tell. That said, I’m still comfortable — who am I kidding, I’m definitely going against my better judgment here — predicting the 2012 Phillies to be one of the two Wild Card teams in the NL.

3. Atlanta Braves (Record: 87-75)

It seems like everyone is either heavily sleeping on Jason Heyward or has just forgotten about him altogether. That would be a mistake. If Heyward can stay healthy (and, as we’ve seen during first two seasons in the big leagues, that’s a big “if”), he has the raw talent to be among the game’s best players — if not the best player, period. We’re talking about as bona fide a five-tool player as there is walking the planet, someone who personifies the spirit of the “can’t miss” label and, based on pure ability alone, is really the perfect baseball player. Heyward can hit for average, hit for power, run the bases with speed and intelligence, possesses a cannon for an arm, fields his position effortlessly, and has a mental makeup that is off the charts. What he did in the minor leagues as an 18-, 19-, and 20-year old was nothing short of incredible. Aside from injuries, I see no possible way Heyward doesn’t fulfill his immense potential and become a superstar in the majors. It just sucks that I’ll have to watch him do it as an Atlanta Brave.

4. Washington Nationals (Record: 86-76)

Living in DC and having observed this franchise over the past four years, I’m prepared to believe in its viability as a legitimate contender. Even if the breakthrough ascent doesn’t happen in 2012, it will in the very near future. The Nationals are coming, and the rest of the NL East — and all of baseball, for that matter — knows it, too. I liken what’s happening to the pro baseball team in DC with what happened to the pro hockey team in Pittsburgh. Both teams just happened to be the worst in their respective sports at the perfect time and, as luck would have it, sucked their way into drafting generational talents in back-to-back years. Also like the Penguins, I expect the Nationals to reap the rewards of their past impotence for years to come as the team evolves into a league power.

Honestly, it’s hard for me not to like the Nationals a little bit. I’ve watched a lot of their games and seen the core develop. If the Nationals do have their Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to build around in Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, they’re going to win at least a few NL East titles — I’m predicting a World Series, too — over the next 5-10 years.

5. New York Mets (Record: 70-92)

Fuck ‘em.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals (Record: 96-66)

I think the Cardinals, even without Albert Pujols, will actually be better in 2012. This is still a team with a deep pitching staff and potent lineup. Adam Wainright (remember him?) is back from Tommy John surgery, while Carlos Beltran — well, a healthy Carlos Beltran — should help somewhat alleviate the loss of Pujols in the middle of the order. Having Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, and David Freese also helps soften the blow. Lastly, I really like the decision to appoint Mike Matheny as Tony La Russa’s successor as manager.

Breakout player: John Jay. I liked him a lot last year and think he’ll blossom as the Cardinals’ everyday center fielder.

2. Cincinnati Reds (Record: 88-74)*

Joey Votto is probably the coolest player in baseball. He looks like a mobster straight out of Goodfellas and has a stare that’ll make you shit your pants.Plus, the dude is a Moneyball disciple’s wet dream. That 10-year, $225 million contract is insane, but Votto will be worth the investment for at least half the term. Unfortunate news about Ryan Madson needing Tommy John surgery and missing the season, but I think Sean Marshall is going to seize the opportunity and be a revelation at the closer spot.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (Record: 83-79)

Ryan Braun was obviously the target of an anti-Semetic drug testing program engineered by MLB to tarnish the reputation of the league’s best, most visible Jewish player. It’s a conspiracy, I tell you. All kidding aside, that had to be one of the more bizarre incidents ever, and the fact that Braun was exonerated based on a technicality won’t clear his name in the court of public opinion. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and this whole thing stinks to high heaven. Alas, it’s something that will likely get swept under the rug and fade into oblivion as time goes on.

With a rotation featuring Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo and Jon Axford holding down the closer’s the role, the Brewers have enough to contend. Still, they’re really going to come to regret the Shaun Marcum-for-Brett Lawrie trade, especially in light of Prince Fielder’s departure.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (Record: 77-85)

My candidate for this season’s Michael Morse Memorial Breakout Player of the Year Award (here’s what I wrote about Morse in December 2010 and then again at the start of the 2011 season): Pirates’ first baseman Garrett Jones, of whom I’ve always been an admirer from afar. As someone who’s been privy to watching him play live, I know he oozes serious potential. Jones is one of those guys where the sound of his bat perfectly striking the ball just sounds different. It’s the unmistakable, thunderous, and jarring crack that whips you to attention as the ball screams its way out of the park at warp speed. As soon as something like that happens, you put a check next to the “plus, plus” box in the player’s “power” tool section. Jones fits a similar profile and possesses the qualities I look for in a potential breakout player — imposing physical specimen, demonstrated big league ability during limited playing time, prodigious power as a hitter. Finally, according to Pirates fans, he’s the best looking guy on the team. That has to count for something.

Also, Andrew McCutcheon is reminiscent of a young Barry Bonds. Good to see the Pirates acted like a legitimate professional sports franchise and locked him up long-term.

5. Chicago Cubs (Record: 71-91)

The gospel of Theo Epstein’s second endeavor as a GM begins in 2012. He has the same resources at his disposal as he had with the Red Sox, and you have to think it’s only a matter of time before the Cubs follow an analogous trajectory of development. It won’t happen overnight, though.

6. Houston Astros (Record: 61-101)

So, this team is composed of Fat El Caballo Carlos Lee, Brett Myers back in the closer’s role, and… what, exactly? A smorgasbord of minor leaguers? Gonna be a long season for the Astros.

NL West

1. San Francisco Giants(Record: 88-74)

Buster Posey’s back, and the pitching is still, for my money, the best in baseball. The offense is always the question mark with this Giants team, but I think there will be enough to win the division.

2.  Colorado Rockies (Record: 86-76)

I believe in the power of Jamie Moyer. Well, mainly Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, but definitely Jamie Moyer, too. I could not be rooting harder for this team unless it was the Phillies.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks (Record: 84-78)

The Trevor Cahill trade certainly bolsters the starting rotation, and Justin Upton is a superstar, but I’m still not buying this team to repeat as division winners.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers (Record: 78-84)

Matt Kemp is awesome, and Clayton Kershaw is the best left-handed starting pitcher in baseball (yes, better than C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels). Still, I don’t see enough in the lineup or starting rotation that leads me to believe this team is ready to win the division.

5. San Diego Padres (Record: 69-93)

So, Cameron Maybin is finally going to break out this season, right? I’ve been hearing that for five years now.

Wild Card Round:

Phillies over Reds

Divisional Round:

Cardinals over Phillies in 5

Giants over Marlins in 4

Championship Round:

Cardinals over Giants in 7

Phillies Offseason Preview

That was one hell of a World Series, and I hope you watched. Turns out the Cardinals really were the team of destiny. Anyway, now that you’ve (hopefully) sufficiently licked your wounds and are starting to heal, it’s time to look toward next season… which officially started nearly 24 hours ago with the opening of free agency. Feel free to read my offseason musings whenever you’re ready to think about 2012.

In terms of what’s realistically in play for the Phillies, there’s no free agent out there who is a “must have” in my eyes (actually, scratch that, you’ll see that there’s a reliever I crave to see in red pinstripes). Nevertheless, that won’t stop me from wasting my life writing about the topic.

What Needs to be Addressed

1) Shortstop

Right now I’m 50/50 on whether Jimmy Rollins will be back. While having certainly lost a step, he is still one of the game’s top overall shortstops. But more than anything, Rollins is the guy who was here first and initiated this franchise’s turnaround over the last decade. It’s going to be difficult to separate emotion from the process in this business decision, for both the front office and fans alike. Rollins first experienced the big leagues at the end of 2000, playing in just 14 games for a team that finished 65-97 and last in the NL East. The following season a new era of Phillies baseball began, with the team occupying first place in the NL East well into June and fighting the Braves tooth and nail for the division until the very end of the season before eventually succumbing. For me, it was the first time I watched a winning baseball team, the first time I had hope and reason to believe my team wouldn’t suck forever.

Just once since Rollins became a full-time starter has he been part of a team that finished under .500 (in 2002, when the Phillies posted an 80-81 record). He — more than Chase Utley and Ryan Howard — is the face of what the Phillies have become. Perhaps Rollins has worn out his welcome with some fans in Philadelphia for various reasons, but you can be sure the majority are still in his corner. He’s a vital component of that locker room; one of the heartbeats, so to speak. The longest-tenured athlete currently playing in Philadelphia, it’s my hope that James Calvin Rollins III remains in a Phillies uniform for the foreseeable future. In the end, however, money will talk, and he’ll go where he feels most wanted. If Rollins does bolt (good friend C.C. Sabathia opined about San Francisco being a landing spot), there are some other stopgap options — Rafael Furcal or Alex Gonzalez, for example; perhaps even Jamey Carroll — who can hold down the position until Freddy Galvis, or whomever, is deemed ready. It’ll be different… and not necessarily a good kind of different. Also, don’t underestimate the makeup of the clubhouse and likely negative impact losing Rollins could have in that regard.

I want Jimmy back, and I want him to finish his career with the Phillies. He’s looking for five years, but I think four is a fair compromise… maybe at something like $40 million? Make it happen.

2) Closer/Bullpen

I think Ryan Madson is going to the highest bidder, and even though there’s the feeling that he’s the Phillies’ number one priority, I just don’t see them matching some ridiculous offer from a desperate team. It would be unfortunate to lose Madson, but that’s how the business goes. Guys like Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, and Francisco Cordero are the other headliners on the open market. However, there are a number of shrewd, cost-efficient options who could be had for less obscene amounts of money. Joe Nathan’s name has already already been mentioned, and that’s something I’d be on board with for the right price. It’ll be his second season back from Tommy John surgery, and even though he’ll turn 37 next month, I think the potential reward is well worth the risk. Might a two-year deal — at, say, $15 million — loaded with incentives do the trick? It will here, because this is my fantasy land.

Jonathan Broxton, Philadelphia’s favorite opposing closer, is another interesting option and perhaps a candidate for a change-of-scenery career revival. It doesn’t look like the Dodgers want to have anything to do with him, given his injury concerns and free-fall in performance. Broxton is coming off elbow surgery to clean out some “loose bodies,” thus completing a horrid year-and-a-half stretch that saw him lose his closer’s role and, really, the ability to be an effective relief pitcher. He will be turning 28 in June, so it’s not like we’re talking about a player in his late 30’s and clearly at the end of his career. Is Broxton another guy worth investing in as a reclamation project? Obviously it will be contingent upon whether teams are confident he can return to form. But remember, at his best, the hefty righty was a power arm with a fastball that hit triple digits and a devastating slider.

As for the player who most piques my interest, it’s definitely Jeff Samardzija. He had his $3 million option for 2012 declined by the Cubs on Monday; reports are that they want to re-sign him, but at a lower base salary. Looks like Theo Epstein’s going to try to sneak this under the radar and pull a fast one. Some smart team should make him pay for letting a young (turns 27 in January), valuable pitcher with high-end ability hit the open market. If I’m the Phillies, I’m targeting Samardzija and throwing out a sizable offer he’ll have trouble turning down. Everything about him screams worthwhile investment. Samardjia’s got a live, electric arm and plenty of potential to be a dominant pitcher going forward. He can fill any role in the bullpen, has closer stuff, and could even be converted into a starter. The possibilities are plentiful when it comes to such a versatile pitcher, and in a weak class of free agents, this is the guy who really caught my eye. Samardzija, in my opinion, has the highest upside of any reliever out there — perhaps any pitcher, period. Get him, Ruben. How about four years at $20 million, with a team option for a fifth year at $10-15 million. DO IT.

Another name I kicked around in my head was Frank Francisco. He’s toiled in relative obscurity his entire career and is most remembered for an unfortunate incident seven years ago that he probably wishes never happened. Once a regular reliever, Francisco has taken on intermittent responsibility as a closer in two of the last three seasons. While he definitely has closer stuff (mid-90s fastball and a hard splitter), his stats aren’t going to blow you away. Still, I think Francisco is a solid pitcher who could be had at a palatable price; the reason being that he’s had trouble, you guessed it, staying healthy. Ah, health, the ultimate wild card. Perhaps a switch to the NL after spending his whole career in the AL could be beneficial for Francisco, but none of that will matter if he can’t stay on the mound and off the disabled list. His ineffectiveness pitching back-to-back nights (scroll to #46) is alarming and has been lamented since his days with the Rangers. Nevermind, just talked myself out of it. I’ll pass.

On that note, I think the bullpen in general could use another piece or two. My major target would have been Javier Lopez, but he just signed a two-year, $8.5 million extension to stay with the Giants. You remember him for his particularly effective performance in last season’s NLCS. The Phillies need another lefty for the bullpen to pair with Antonio Bastardo… and it would have been nice to watch Lopez strike out opposing left-handed batters, instead of Utley and Howard. I’m actually pretty bummed about this. The Phillies should still focus on acquiring another veteran left-handed reliever. Perhaps the ageless Darren Oliver, who’s still interested in playing, if he can be lured away from the Rangers? At age 41, he’s still effective as ever, especially tough on lefty hitters, and has lowered his ERA in each of the last four seasons. I’m on board, provided the contract is only for one year. I’d also be fine with signing Mike Gonzalez, Oliver’s teammate, instead.

Edit: Shit, I forgot Todd Coffey is a free agent. I love Todd Coffey. He’d instantly become my favorite Phillie… and it’s definitely not only because of his herculean physique. But seriously, I like Coffey as a reliever and think he’s got underrated stuff.

In-house options to land bullpen roles with the Phillies: 

Justin De Fratus… Amaro isn’t sold on him as a possible closer, but De Fratus is the guy I’m most curious to see (followed by the next candidate).

Phillippe Aumont… viewed as the closer of the future but is said to need more seasoning in the minors.

Michael Schwimer… got a glimpse of him at at the end of the season, and I imagine he’ll get every opportunity to make the team in spring training. If Schwimer doesn’t make the team, he’ll be one of the first in-season call-ups.

Joe Savery… any possible way he could be a position player/emergency reliever combo? Because that would be awesome.

3) First base

I don’t see Ryan Howard being ready to start the season. Naturally, Amaro needs to figure out a way to fill the position in the interim.* If he decides that re-signing Ross Gload is the solution, I’m going to punch a baby in the face. And I love babies.

*Edit: I’d first try to pry Garrett Jones away from the Pirates. He can play first base and left/right field and hits for power (the kind that’ll make you say “wow”).

There are certainly options on the free agent market, with Derek Lee probably the most plausible; he’d be perfect as a temporary replacement. Once Howard returns, Lee could then transition to the role of valuable bench player, where he can pinch hit, serve as a late-game defensive replacement, and spell the big guy at first base from time to time. A funny thing happened with Lee after the Orioles — with whom he struggled mightily, to the tune of a .246/.302/.404 line — dealt him to the Pirates at the trade deadline. Following a stint on the disabled list with a hand injury, he returned to the lineup at the beginning of September and started to rake. In 83 at bats during the month, Lee put up a .349/.415/.554 line with five home runs and 15 RBI. Of course that’s not a large enough sample size to say he magically transformed into Derek Lee circa 2005-2009, but maybe there’s a little something still left in the tank.

Carlos Pena is available, but I have trouble believing he’ll sign somewhere to be a temporary starter and ultimately a backup (I would certainly want him on a one-year deal, though). Same goes for Casey Kotchman, who’s turning 29 and coming off a breakout season.

If it’s decided the fill-in for Howard should come from within the organization, there are three players in the running. John Mayberry, Jr. is the obvious selection, but he’s a plus defender in the outfield. If Amaro is serious about his stated desire to have Domonic Brown play a full season in AAA (I’d rather see him in the big leagues because I’m in favor of on-the-job training), Mayberry should be the primary option to start in left field and part of a platoon at first base. Now, who would be the other half of said platoon? Seems like Cody Overbeck and Matt Rizzotti are the most popular candidates.

First thing’s first: I’ve never watched either play. There are far better bloggers out there with detailed scouting reports about both Overback (bats righty) and Rizzotti (bats lefty), but I’ll touch on this anyway. It seems like the Phillies should explore the possibility of letting one of them start the season in the majors, especially given that this isn’t a protracted situation (or so we think). Overbeck has vaulted himself into the discussion as one of the organization’s better prospects, but I also think it would be a mistake for Rizzotti to not at least be in the discussion this offseason and during spring training. He has superior plate discipline and gets on base with aplomb, something the Phillies sorely need (better at bats would be nice, too). Rizzotti’s potential at the plate is enough to overlook that he’s a poor — very poor — fielder and runner, and he’s an intriguing platoon option with John Mayberry at first base until Ryan Howard is fully healthy. It was always a foregone conclusion that Rizzotti wasn’t going to get his chance to play in the bigs with the Phillies because he can’t be anything other than a first basement or designated hitter. Well, here we are, sans Howard, and an opportunity for somebody to step up. Rizzotti has gotten more ink over the years, but Overbeck is the more complete player and started to gain a lot of traction this past season. I think it’s more likely he gets the nod and Rizzotti, who’s been jerked around by the organization plenty, is banished back to baseball purgatory. However, if Charlie Manuel decides he wants the platoon at first base to feature a righty and lefty, Rizzotti could get his chance.

Edit: Welcome back, Gentleman Jim! Fantastic, hooray for nostalgia. It wasn’t a secret that Amaro and Manuel wanted to acquire Thome during the waiver trade period in August, but the Phillies’ record made that impossible. I’m actually disappointed in myself for not suggesting this… I just figured Thome could be nothing more than a DH or bench option in the AL, and I didn’t think the Phillies would sign a guy who couldn’t play the field (wait, is he going to play first base?). Then again, there was that Matt Stairs guy who was just a bat and didn’t play the field, and he did some good stuff.

4) Left field

Yeah, John Mayberry, Jr. is the front-runner to start in left, but what if he’s viewed as the short term solution at first base and Amaro doesn’t want to put Dom Brown out there? Free agent options to fill the void include Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, Grady Sizemore, and Ryan Doumit (who can no longer be an everyday catcher). Cuddyer is a popular suggestion, but he’s going to surely command more per season than the $10.5 million he made in 2011 and is below average defensively. On the plus side, he can also fill in at first base — second and third, too, if absolutely necessary — and crushes left-handed pitching (.311/.403/.589 in 151 at bats this past season; .300/.389/.569 in 496 at bats since the beginning of 2008). While Cuddyer’s a solid offensive player who’d likely see a bump in his power numbers if he switches to the NL (and Citizens Bank Park), I wouldn’t be willing to give him a long-term, big-money deal. In fact, I wouldn’t want to give a long-term contract to any of the aforementioned players,* though I would pursue DeJesus if he’s receptive to signing a shorter deal. He’s coming off his worst season but has proven to be a capable major leaguer over the course of his career — and I like his game. DeJesus can play all three outfield positions, displays a disciplined plate approach that has to appeal to Amaro, and is a consistent hitter (just look at his yearly averages) who uses the whole field. That said, you know who might deliver the best bang for your buck and is suited for a part-time/bench role? Jonny Gomes.

*Edit: Actually, Kubel wouldn’t be so bad as a fourth outfielder. Someone like Willingham, on the other hand, will demand to be an everyday starter, while Sizemore hasn’t been 100% healthy since 2008 (although getting him on a one- or two-year deal is something I’d explore due to the risk/reward factor).

5) Third base

Placido Polanco is in the twilight of his career, and the injuries are mounting up. While his glove work at third base is the best in the NL (congrats on the well-deserved Gold Glove), his hitting has fallen off a cliff — although that could have just been a symptom of his multiple injuries. For that reason, going forward I think it’s best to limit Polanco as an everyday starter and instead use him as a sort of super-utility player who can also spell Utley at second base. Another third baseman should be brought in to help lessen the workload. I would float Eric Chavez’s name, but it seems he’s retiring. Players like Aramis Ramirez and Wilson Betemit will want to be full-time starters, and unless Polanco is relegated to the bench permanently, neither seems like a fit in Philadelphia. The guy I’d be most interested in signing for this specific role is Jerry Hairston, Jr. (plays second, third, and outfield), who really came on strong for the Brewers down the stretch and in the playoffs after being acquired from the Washington Nationals. He’d be an excellent addition.

6) Backup catcher

Amaro will probably just re-sign Brian Schneider, but I’d try to get Chris Snyder instead, assuming another team doesn’t offer him the opportunity to start.

Projected lineup on Opening Day:

C: Carlos Ruiz

1B: Derek Lee

2B: Chase Utley

SS: Jimmy Rollins

3B: Placido Polanco

RF: Hunter Pence

CF: Shane Victorino

LF: John Mayberry, Jr.

Edit: I’m starting to think it might just be a better idea to sign an everyday left-fielder and use Mayberry as the interim first baseman. When Howard comes back, Mayberry can serve as the starting/fourth outfielder and backup at first.

Bench (overlooked, but must to be upgraded): David DeJesus/Jason Kubel/Grady Sizemore/Jonny Gomes, Cody Overbeck/Matt Rizzotti, Wilson Valdez/Michael Martinez, Jerry Hairston, Jr., Chris Snyder

Starting rotation: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, Joe Blanton

Bullpen: Michael Stutes, Darren Oliver, Justin De Fratus/Michael Schwimer, Antonio Bastardo, Jose Contreras, Joe Nathan, Jeff Samardzija (and I’d let Contreras, Bastardo, Nathan, and Samardzija duke it out for the closer spot)

Now go ahead and tell me why I’m a dumb, stupid idiot and your mock offseason idea is so much better.

They Fooled Us

So, that’s how it happened. It ended like this? Really? With the best regular season in franchise history and all those lofty expectations and dreams going down in flames as Ryan Howard — the chief symbol of frustration since winning the World Series in 2008 — himself went down immediately upon turning to run towards first base… where he would have been out by a mile anyway. Then about an hour after the game, the interwebs informed us that Howard likely — and since confirmed — suffered a torn Achilles tendon. There’s a strong likelihood he misses part (at least half?) of next season, and who knows how this will affect his career going forward. Odds are it won’t be positively. This is a serious injury, and that’s bad news for a slugger whose skills have been in decline for two years. Here’s where I’d typically add in the obligatory “insult to injury” line, and then annoyingly make sure I ram home the point that I’m being literal. Because, you know, you weren’t thinking that yourself, and other journalists/bloggers haven’t already written it ad nauseum.

Speaking of Howard, here’s how you know he was truly terrible as he went hitless in his final 15 at bats of the series: My sister, who doesn’t know shit about sports, pointed out his incompetence and was actually laughing at him. I’m not sure what’s worse, predicting that he’s going to strike out on three or four pitches or actually watching as it happens. Remember that at bat against Mark Rzepczynski in the top of the eighth inning of Game 4, with two outs and Utley at second base, with the score 5-3? I turned to my friend, the one and only Class Callahan, with whom I was watching and said: “Watch. This Howard at bat is going to last three pitches, four max. He’s probably going to be down 0-2, then he’ll feebly flail at a slider as it breaks away from him for the third strike.” Class found it especially hilarious when, three pitches later, on an 0-2 count (after looking at an 84 MPH meatball in the heart of the plate for strike two), Howard swung and missed at a slider that broke away from him and ended up out of the strike zone.

This really has turned into my worst nightmare, as far as sports scenarios go. But if there’s one good thing the Eagles’ crushing failures earlier in the decade did, it was force me to gain some perspective about sports and where they fit in with life. Ever since I’ve been at peace with the conclusion I made then: In the grand scheme of things and in terms of what’s really important, sports don’t matter. But the losses still hurt, especially when they happen like this. The Phillies just did their best Eagles impression. You know what I’m talking about. They fooled us into believing. And, like it felt with the Eagles, this season’s end is even more painful than the last. By the way, if you hear a ping of glasses tapping together, that’s just Jeffrey Lurie and Joe Banner toasting in celebration to the incredible demise of their in-town adversary.

The city loved this Phillies team because it was a winner. Was. As in past tense. As in three years ago, when that specific team won the World Series. That team was different from the rest. This new team was better than that one, at least on paper, but games aren’t played on paper. It had players who won before. That core was still intact, albeit older and, as much as the faithful reluctantly admitted, getting progressively more injury-prone. But that’s why we traded for Roy Halladay. That’s why we brought Cliff Lee back. The pitching was supposed to help mask an aging offense that wasn’t the juggernaut it had been at the start of the franchise’s most recent revival. In the end, it turns out the team’s greatest strength, starting pitching, couldn’t overcome its greatest weakness, a streaky offense.

It wasn’t supposed to end like this. So soon. So suddenly. So devastatingly. But it did, and the all too familiar hollow feeling that accompanies losing crept its way back into our ethos as Philadelphia sports fans. You dreaded it the whole game, from the very beginning. Even before the first pitch. I know you did, and it only got worse and more ominous as the innings went by with nary a run scored. It was in the pit of your stomach. That awful sinking feeling. You start verbalizing your doomsday premonitions and texting your friends, “This game is going to end 1-0, isn’t it?” You just know, and you are forced to sit there and watch helplessly as the worst-case scenario manifests itself on the field.

In a match up of Cy Young Award winners all it might take is one run to win, and the Cardinals got that all important run five fucking minutes into the game — off Roy Halladay, who, despite his undeniable greatness, is vulnerable early on. If teams are going to score on him, they better do it in the first inning. Otherwise, their chances decline drastically. For the second time in the series, leadoff hitter Rafael Furcal went on the attack before Doc was able to settle down and get a rhythm going. This time, with the count at two balls and one strike, the pesky Furcal — who got his sweet revenge on the Phillies after the ‘08 and ‘09 teams easily disposed of his Dodgers in the playoffs — smoked a ball into the gap for a triple (his second leadoff triple of the series, with the first coming off Cliff Lee). Then Skip Schumaker battled through an at bat that typified the Cardinals’ scrappy and never-give-in attitude, something we used to say about these Phillies. On the tenth pitch, he smacked a hanging curve ball into the right field corner for an RBI double. Then Chris Carpenter did the rest. Poor Doc deserved better than this fate, especially given his heroic performance after the first inning.

Friday night felt like the end of an era. The whole game just felt like one long, excruciating, inevitable end of an era. “Era.” I mean five seasons of success that followed six seasons of near misses and not even getting into the playoffs. With Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Madson slated to become free agents, two of the franchise’s drafted and developed players — and Philadelphia’s currently longest-tenured athlete in Rollins — could very realistically be wearing other uniforms next season. Rollins wants a five-year contract and has previously intimated there won’t be a hometown discount, while Madson is a Scott Boras client and will be looking to cash in on a career deal after finally establishing himself as a closer (reports would seem to indicate he’s probably ready to move on). Now add those two situations to Howard’s ordeal, and the fact that both Chase Utley and Placido Polanco will have to undergo offseason surgery for nagging injuries that affected their performances all season. There’s lots of uncertainty surrounding the future of the everyday lineup (but one certainty is Raul Ibanez won’t be back). All of a sudden, the reality and gravity of the situation kicks you in the face. Dare I say it, but it could be time for the Phillies to take a page from the Flyers’ book and radically alter the direction of the franchise. This is the offseason where Amaro really proves his worth as a general manager.

I didn’t write this in the playoff preview article because I didn’t want to ooze my normal pessimism, but when people asked me what I thought of the Phillies-Cardinals series, I’d tell them Phils in five. Yet I did so rather unconvincingly and with a hint of doubt in my voice. I’d tell them I was nervous, that the Cardinals were probably the worst possible matchup for this team. A guy at work (they tell me I’m supposed to promote more through social networking… so, yeah, here’s my plug: Buy something), let’s call him Chris, is a big Cardinals fan, and he fits the stereotype you hear about them being the best, most pleasant fans. Or whatever it is people say. When I started at my job, other people in the office told me Chris was a total baseball junkie. Naturally, it’s been a topic of conversation between us ever since. I asked him on Monday, September 12, if he thought his Cardinals had a chance to win the Wild Card. That was following a mini win streak, accompanied by a Braves mini losing streak, that cut the deficit from 8.5 games to 4.5 games in a week. “I guess I could buy into it,” Chris told me. We wished each other luck going down the stretch — “not that you guys need it,” he said. And so it went for the next two weeks, with the Cardinals catching fire and the Braves completely falling apart. Every night was essentially an elimination game for St. Louis, and they just kept on winning. The Phillies, on the other hand, really hadn’t played a game of significant magnitude at any point during the season. “You guys scare the shit out of me,” I replied.

Fast forward to the day after the conclusion of the regular season. Here’s how the conversation went between us.

ME: How are you feeling about this series?

CHRIS: I’ll be happy if we win a game. I’d be satisfied with that.

ME: Really? That’s it? I don’t think you’re giving your team enough credit. The hot team is always the most dangerous, especially in a short series. I see this thing going five and, objectively speaking, would probably even put money on the Cardinals. Carpenter and Garcia have had tremendous success against this lineup over the past few years. Plus, your offense is the best in the National League.

CHRIS: Seriously? You think we have a chance?

ME: Of course. I wasn’t kidding when I said your Cardinals scared the shit out of me. The Phillies aren’t invincible, and our offense, which is the epitome of hot/cold, hasn’t shown shown up in the last three playoff series.

CHRIS: Yeah, but your starting pitching…

ME: … is not invincible, either.

There’s a destiny feel to this Cardinals team. The impossible — until it wasn’t — run at the end of the season to overcome a 10.5-game deficit and earn a playoff berth on the final day. The whole being the hot team at the right time thing, and how it can often mean riding that wave of momentum over playoff opponents that have instead had sustained success over the course of the whole season. So really, when it counts, the hot team is the better team, the more tested team, the more mentally tough team. It always seems to work out that way, right? And make no mistake, the better team won this series. Even after the uneasy Game 3 win, I texted a few friends, “If there’s one thing I’ll say after watching these first three games, it’s that the Cardinals look like the better team.” I truly felt that way, and the last two games only further emphasized it.

Even though the initial feeling was more shock than devastation, I wasn’t that surprised by Friday night’s outcome. As the Phillies were ripping off wins at a torrid pace in August and early September, the natural cynic in me still couldn’t resist tempering my optimism with a healthy dose of cautiousness and concern. “Yeah, I just hope they’re not peaking too early — you want to be playing your best baseball at the end of September, not the beginning,” I told coworkers and friends who remarked how excited I must be about the Phillies. The eight-game losing streak that followed clinching the division title bothered me more than most fans. I had friends tell me to calm down, that Charlie was playing minor leaguers to give his regulars a rest, that the team was just coasting until the playoffs. Coasting? Fuck, I hate that word. None of it made me feel any better, especially since I don’t believe in flipping that proverbial switch and just “turning it on.”

Then the Phillies put their regular lineup back out on the field and won the final four games of the season, including a sweep of the Braves that made it possible for the Cardinals to win the Wild Card. I relaxed a little bit, figuring the guys had gotten back into their groove and were ready for October. For a minute, I let myself ignore the warning signs that popped up as the final month progressed. Polanco — playing through a sport hernia injury — had devolved into a singles hitter or automatic out, while Victorino and Utley struggled through September*, Howard suffered from a sore heel (FORESHADOWING!) and bursitis in his left ankle, and Hunter Pence was afflicted with patellar tendinitis. That Jekyll and Hyde offense was returning, just in time to break our hearts. At the conclusion of the 162nd game of the season, every Phillies fan had the same thought: Crap, I hope we didn’t just screw ourselves over now that we’ve ensured we have to play the hottest team in baseball. It’s a shame things worked out the way they did, but I’m not going to fault the Phillies for winning games.

*Edit: Victorino and Utley both rose to the occasion and had good series against the Cardinals at the plate (not so much in the field or on the base paths). Conversely, Carlos Ruiz, who hit .301 in September, went 1 for 17 in the NLDS. Very un-Señor Octubre of him.

Yeah, you can choose to blame Cliff Lee for blowing a 4-0 lead in Game 2, or Chase Utley for getting burned on two base-running risks in Games 4 and 5 (which literally never happens to him, but at least he showed up). However, if you actually have any idea what you’re talking about, you know the blame for this debacle rests squarely on the offense and its inability to manufacture runs or have good at bats in the most critical situations. Again. No killer instinct (the first inning of Game 4, for example). This team scored 11 runs in the first game, and then 10 total in the next four. Now things are officially going backward, and if the trend continues, the Phillies won’t even have a chance to lose in the playoffs in 2012.

A season of unparalleled hope and immense promise crumbled before our very eyes, in a fashion befitting a team that calls Philadelphia home. And the disastrous, surreal way it ended has got to be a first. That’s definitely a claim to fame, just not the one the Phillies were hoping to achieve. This pill is the most bitter of all to swallow, and you have to wonder if we’ve seen the last of a run that’s provided so much excitement and joy. But hey, at least Howard didn’t go down looking this time.

PS - How will the Eagles choose to pile onto our misery? I’m thinking they line up for a field goal with the score tied and three seconds left on the clock… only to have it blocked and returned by the Bills for a game-winning touchdown.

Edit: I wrote the above paragraph before the game but wasn’t yet finished writing/editing the whole post. Gotta hand it to the Eagles, they found a way to pile onto the misery. In spectacular fashion. Game recap coming tomorrow.

PPS - Go Flyers. I’m extremely excited about this team’s potential… it’s got a chance to be something special. Zach Parise thinks so, too.

Phillies Season Review and Playoff Preview

Alright, let’s get this out of the way first: Here are my predictions from spring training for all of Major League Baseball, as well as my season preview of the Phillies. I’ll just save you the trouble of reading through both and offer a brief overall summary:

What I was right about: Phillies (even if they exceeded my expectations), Brewers, Ryan Braun, John Axford, Michael Morse

What I was wrong about: Everything else (although I think I was just a year early on the Blue Jays)

With the Philadelphia Phillies’ historic 2011 regular season now over, it’s time to preview what everyone has been waiting for since Cliff Lee signed in December: October. I couldn’t be more thankful that September is nearly over.

Just in case you were worrying about the Phillies during that eight-game losing streak (the longest since 2000!), they wanted to let you know they are, in fact, ready for the playoffs. I am one of those people who was worrying. Then I thought about it some more and realized I wasn’t worrying, just being a little bitch. It was more the fact that I really hate losing, no matter what (even though I’m very used to it). The Phillies were routinely playing at least three minor leaguers in each of those games, and it was clear Charlie Manuel had a plan in place to give his starters some time off after a long regular season. There is the natural human reaction to relax once you’ve accomplished a goal and there’s nothing else on the line. Athletes are no different. Upon defeating the St. Louis Cardinals 9-2 on September 17, the Phillies captured the division title, clinched best record in the National League, and secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs. You know something? The starters deserved to take a break and relax before the postseason. This is a veteran team that was in the midst of a 33-game stretch in 31 days, due to all the rainouts from the previous month. Manuel basically gave his regulars a week off to rest, recover from their assorted ailments, and recharge the batteries. Not that he had to, but I’m sure Charlie made it known everyone was to be ready to go for the last five games as a sort of tune-up for the playoffs. Mission accomplished. Never doubt The Great Fuqua. I’m also liking this new lineup he’s concocted to play against right handed starting pitchers.

As we all know — and as people love to point out — the Phillies are an older team, by professional sports standards. Each everyday player not named Hunter Pence is over 30 years old. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Carlos Ruiz are 32 going on 33. Ryan Howard is 31 going on 32. Raul Ibanez is 39 going on 50 (sorry, I couldn’t resist). Placido Polanco is 36 going on 37. Shane Victorino is the youngest of the core at 30 going on 31. And each one of the players just listed has dealt with some type of injury during the course of the season. Rollins is two weeks removed from a stint on the 15-day disabled list with a calf strain. He’s playing for a new contract, and this team needs him to provide a spark at the top of the lineup. Utley’s nagging knee tendonitis has hampered his ability to generate as much power from his legs, and he’s just not driving the ball like he used to. While Chase is still one of the best (yes, best) second basemen in baseball, he hasn’t been the player who spoiled us in past seasons. But if there’s one thing that can always be said about Utley no matter how he’s performing, it’s that he’s a gamer. I’m feeling good about him in the playoffs, and the early returns of his move to the number two spot in the lineup are encouraging. Ruiz can do no wrong; he will forever be known in Philadelphia as Chooch and, when the playoffs arrive, Señor Octubre. Polanco dealt with a balky elbow early in the season and is now playing with a sports hernia that will require offseason surgery. He’s been on the disabled list a few times and is pretty much strictly a singles hitter now (130 hits, only 19 for extra bases). Fortunately, Placido is still the best defensive third baseman in the NL. Victorino has slumped mightily in the month of September, to the tune of a .186/.258/.319 triple-slash line (a .577 OPS) in 113 at bats. It was about time he came back to earth after a career season, but he seems to have found his swing again over the past week.

Ryan Howard’s right ankle still isn’t 100%, and even before hurting it he was putting up decreased power numbers for the second straight season. I know, he has hit 33 home runs and driven in 116 runs. But his .835 OPS ranks 19th in the NL (look who’s 18th) and 36th in the majors, and if you watch the Phillies regularly you know his skills at the plate are starting to decline. Bill Conlin would probably want you to believe I don’t appreciate Howard or have no idea what I’m talking about, but I just call it like I see it. That said, as one of the people concerned about the fact that Howard’s five-year/$125 million extension doesn’t start until next season, and someone who thinks we’ve probably seen his best days, I also feel obligated to come to his defense on the OPS argument. If you look deeper into the splits, you’ll see that Howard has performed extremely well in the most important situations: with runners on base and in scoring position. Here are the numbers…

Runners on base: .288/.390/.507 (.897 OPS) in 274 at bats; 14 HR, 97 RBI

Runners in scoring position: .298/.419/.497 (.919 OPS) in 161 at bats; 6 HR, 78 RBI

What’s more, with runners in scoring position and two outs, the Big Piece is coming through in the clutch, hitting .304/.455/.544 (.999 OPS) in 79 at bats with three homers and 35 RBI. Ryan Howard is a guy who gets paid an obscene amount of money to drive in runs. When those opportunities have presented themselves this season, he’s been more than able to deliver. It’s the .219/.301/.470 averages in 283 at bats with nobody on base — he’s not getting paid to lead off — that have skewed his overall OPS. Nevertheless, as we’ve seen in playoffs past, Howard has a propensity to struggle against elite pitching because he still gets himself out infuriatingly frequently. He just can’t help it. If I had a dollar for every at bat of Howard’s I’ve seen where he’s struck out without even getting a strike to hit, I’d have a fuck ton of dollars. He must be a disciplined hitter in the playoffs, or it’ll be the same shitty song and dance again.

Of course, what really made this team whole was the trade for Hunter Pence. Could there have been a better fit? Not only is his energy and style infectious, but he’s also the potent righty bat this team needed to replace Jayson Werth. A match made in heaven, for both player and city alike. Pence has thrived in his new digs, batting .324/.394/.560 (.954 OPS) in 207 at bats in 54 games, with 11 home runs, 26 RBI, and 35 runs scored. That’s in addition to 12 doubles, two triples, and, most impressively, 26 walks to just 38 strikeouts. Pence’s improved patience at the plate has made him an even more dangerous hitter because he’s unpredictable. If the pitcher tries to sneak a fastball by him to get ahead in the count immediately, Pence can still jump all over it and hit a moon shot. He’ll get a little goofy in the field at times and can slip and fall in lieu of catching the ball… but that arm of his — as the vanquished Braves can attest — is a weapon. There’s no question the Phillies have played their best baseball of the season since adding Hunter Pence to the mix.

We haven’t even mentioned the contributions of John Mayberry, Jr., who has made himself into a legitimate major league player with intriguing talent. I know Raul Ibanez is going to start, and that’s fine, but Manuel shouldn’t hesitate to replace him with Big John if the situation calls for it. Mayberry should be starting over Ibanez anyway. I know Charlie is loyal to his guys, but he also has an obligation to put the best nine players on the field. Mayberry is infinitely superior in the field and hits for more power. He covers the entire field with his gazelle-like strides and has a much stronger arm than Ibanez, which is to say he can actually throw out runners. Every team needs an unsung hero in the playoffs, and I have a feeling the Phillies are going to need John Mayberry, Jr.

The biggest question mark with this Phillies team is the bullpen. Kyle Kendrick will be used in long relief or for an emergency start. Michael Stutes is ready when needed but slowed down in the second half of the season, and David Herndon Joe Blanton is the extra arm. Wilson Valdez is always available in a pinch, of course. Adding Vance Worley is a major boost, and I’m interested to see how Manuel deploys him. The undisputed closer is Ryan Madson, and he’s pitching for a career contract. Remember that awful game in Washington in mid-August when he blew the save and gave up six runs, including the walk-off grand slam to Ryan Zimmerman? Well, Madson hasn’t given up a single run in the 16.1 innings he’s pitched since then. I’d say he’s ready. The former closer, Brad Lidge, is now a suprisingly effective arm in the bullpen who can pitch an any situation, despite pretty much just throwing variations of his signature slider at this point. If Antonio Bastardo falters in the eighth, Lidge will be his replacement. I shouldn’t have to tell you this, but that makes me incredibly nervous, regardless of his encouraging performance since coming off the disabled list. In an interesting twist of fate, Lidge could end up being the bridge to Madson at the end of games three years after they won the World Series in reversed roles.

Speaking of Antonio Bastardo, either his arm is fatigued after pitching the most innings of his life, or he’s plummeting back to earth. In truth, it’s probably somewhere in the middle. But when Bastardo’s on, his stuff is absolutely devastating. He was having a historic season before a disastrous final month. Remember, exactly four weeks ago, on September 1, Bastardo had pitched 52.1 innings, giving up 19 hits, 19 walks, and just eight runs, while striking out 65. Opponents were batting just .112 against him, which was the lowest for any pitcher in baseball history with at least 50 innings pitched. Bastardo’s WHIP was a preposterous 0.73 — he was having the most dominant season I’d ever seen from a Phillies reliever. Any reliever, really. Unfortunately, the complete and utter dominance didn’t last. September provided a reality check, as Bastardo pitched just 7.1 innings and gave up nine runs, raising his ERA from 1.38 to 2.64, his WHIP to 0.93, and opponents’ batting average to .144. He gave up at least one run in a stretch of five of seven appearances (he had 10 total during the month). Before September, Bastardo had given up a run in just seven of 54 appearances. However, he was sharp in his most recent outing against the Braves, and hopefully he’s well rested for the playoffs. You need look no further than Atlanta for what happens to a team when its young relievers start to tire and wear down from an excessive workload.

Oh, and the starting pitching has been pretty good, too.

This is a Phillies team that has been built for October. The last six months have been a joy ride of unprecedented proportions, but now the REAL season begins. It’s time to accomplish the only goal that anyone actually cares about. St. Louis presents a formidable foe in the form of the hottest team in baseball (23-8 in their last 31 games). Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Matt Holliday* occupy the middle of the lineup. Yadier Molina’s having a career season with the stick while still providing his unmatched defense behind the plate, and the unheralded Jon Jay and David Freese both came on strong in September. The Cardinals boast the best offense in the National League (much like Cincinnati did last year), not to mention an underrated starting pitching staff — led by Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, and noted Phillies killer Jaime Garcia — that has persevered through a season without Adam Wainwright. It should be a challenging first test for the Phillies, but nobody said winning this thing would be easy. 

*Update: Matt Holliday might (or might not) be out with a hand injury. If he can’t go, Allen Craig is in. Craig has been pretty good in his own right, just not against the Phillies.

The Weekend That Was…

So, that just happened. Not sure if you heard, but the Eagles and Phillies won the Super Bowl and World Series Friday, both within three hours of one another. Pretty impressive feat, right? What’s that, neither won their respective sport’s championship? You’re sure? I could’ve sworn they did. Maybe it just felt that way, given the reaction from fans and media members alike. It’s too bad both teams still have to go out and, you know, actually play the games. And win those games.

A little after 6 PM Friday, right when NFL teams were allowed to officially start signing free agents, word started to leak out that a certain mystery team — not the “favored” Jets or Cowboys — was on the verge of inking Nnamdi Asomugha, the most prized player on the market. Within half an hour, Adam Schefter reported that team was the Eagles and confirmed a deal was done: five years and $60 million, $25 million of it guaranteed. That means Asomugha (probably) took less money to join the Eagles, which, he admits, was the team he targeted back in March. Well, then. I guess the big boys weren’t bluffing when they said they had “big plans” for this offseason. And you know who was wrong for doubting them? Yours truly. Honestly, why are you even reading anything I write? Talk about a swing and a miss. Then again, I have no problem being wrong when it means making the team better. In fact, I love it and am more than happy to admit my misstep. Now, if only Andy Reid and the team itself follow management’s lead and prove me wrong on the field (see: more balance on offense, less choking and overall in-game buffoonery).

The Eagles weren’t done after winning the Asomugha sweepstakes, however, and continued their spending binge. On Saturday afternoon, the team signed Cullen Jenkins to a five-year, $25 million contract. What’s more, according to Michael Lombardi, the Jenkins contract becomes a one-year, $4 million deal if the team chooses to cut him after the 2011 season. How the hell did Howie Roseman and Joe Banner pull that off? Jenkins, when healthy (and that’s been the biggest problem over the course of his career), is easily one of the league’s best inside pass rushers and will look fantastic next to Antonio Dixon at defensive tackle in Juan Castillo’s 4-3 scheme (I’m sure he’ll rotate in at defense end, as well). A Cole-Jenkins-Dixon-Babin alignment on the defensive line? Sexually arousing. Jim Washburn must be doing cartwheels right now. 

Let’s stop and think about things for a second: With the addition of Jenkins, that makes the third player 30 or older the Eagles have signed so far. All three have been marquee signings, too. Talk about a change in philosophy. I guess desperate times call for desperate measures, and these are desperate times in Philadelphia. These next three seasons (should) represent Andy Reid’s last chance to win a Super Bowl as the head coach of this football team, and management is going for it. Everyone in the organization, like the fans, is tired of getting close and losing. FUCKING FINALLY. The Eagles have pushed all their chips into the middle of the table. This is like the 2004 offseason all over again, and, somehow, I don’t think the maneuvering is quite finished yet. Hopefully one of their next moves — after addressing other, more pressing needs — is to negotiate a new contract for DeSean Jackson, who will show up to training camp on Thursday, lest he start to get fined $30,000 for each unexcused absence.

After the Jenkins signing, the Eagles shipped Brodrick Bunkley to the Browns for a fifth round pick; when the terms of the deal were not met (he didn’t report to Browns training camp), the Eagles instead traded Bunkley to the Broncos for a 2013 draft pick. I don’t care as much about the return as I do the fact that the move frees up an extra $2 million in cap space. Now, what to do with Asante Samuel? With the additions of Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie, will he be dangled as trade bait? I’d rather keep the trio of Pro Bowl cornerbacks because you can never have too many guys who can defend the pass. It’s an embarrassment of riches and a luxury that should not be taken for granted. Also, if Samuel is retained, it appears as though Juan Castillo is flirting with casting Asomugha in a Charles Woodson-esque role, which means he’ll line up all over the defensive formation and be used as a cover corner, spy, and blitzer. However, if the Eagles can use Samuel to get an impact player at another positon of need — right tackle, linebacker, or even safety, for example — it’s something the front office should (and will) seriously consider. 

Update: Ronnie Brown has signed a one-year deal with the Eagles. Next up: sign reinforcements at linebacker and safety. While Brown’s not exactly a classic power back for those short-yardage situations nor the player he once was, he does represent an ideal backup to LeSean McCoy. But will he stay healthy?

Edit: The team also just signed offensive tackle Ryan Harris and safety Jarrad Page in two shrewd, under-the-radar moves that could pay big dividends. Harris looked like a future Pro Bowler in 2008, but his career was derailed in 2009 when he suffered two dislocated toes and was put on injured reserve. Last season, he was hampered by a nagging ankle injury, struggled to find his place in Josh McDaniels’s offense, and didn’t fit in with what the offensive line coach looked for in his charges (which is to say that Harris relies on agility and athleticism rather than size and brute strength). A fresh start could do wonders for Harris, especially when you consider that he’ll now be working with Howard Mudd, who prefers smaller, more nimble linemen. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being the Eagles’ starting right tackle in 2011. Jarrad Page will provide depth at safety and has starting experience (put up good stats, too) from his years with the Chiefs.

The good: The Eagles are loading up and doing everything within their power to assemble a Super Bowl-worthy roster. The bad: Vince Young (love the signing, by the way) already invoked the “Dream Team” moniker, to go along with Jason Babin tweeting, “I feel like we are the Miami Heat of the NFL.” Ugh, shut up. Both of you. Already there’s lots of talk coming from a team that hasn’t won shit. Rob Ryan is right, the Eagles definitely win the “all-hype team” award. But let’s not forget what the Eagles have, for the most part, had trouble doing on the field over the last decade: Producing results that meet the hype.

Not to be upstaged by their in-city rivals, the Phillies countered the Asomugha signing by finalizing a trade for Hunter Pence in the middle of Friday night’s game against the Pirates. Could the timing of the trade merely have been a coincidence? Of course. But I prefer the alternate, more puerile theory. If you’re unfamiliar, the Phillies and Eagles despise each other. The two organizations have had a contentious relationship dating back to their days sharing the Vet and continuously fight for sports supremacy in this town (although the bitterness and, well, jealousy seem much more palpable on the Eagles’ side). Whenever one team makes a headline-grabbing move, you can almost always count on the other to respond in kind. 

From 2000-2006, the Eagles owned Philadelphia. Much to their dismay, however, the Phillies have passed them as the class of this city over the past four years, with 2008’s World Series championship being the moment of crystallization. I always joke — well, half-joke — that the only people in town unhappy when the Phillies won the World Series were the head honchos within the Eagles’ organization. A little over a year after making the playoffs for the first time since 1993, the Phillies had already accomplished the ultimate goal that had eluded the Eagles’ grasp. The Phillies were winners with a never-say-die attitude, a team that always rose to the occasion and answered the bell. They resonated with the fans more than the Eagles teams that always found ways to lose and seemed to lack the gumption and fire to come through in the clutch, as well as a desire to connect with the people of this city on a fundamental level. Really, the Phillies were (and still are) everything the Eagles were not.

As for the Pence deal, it’s precisely what the Phillies needed. He’s not your classic power hitter and sports an .817 career OPS, but he is coming off three consecutive 25-homer seasons (despite currently only being on pace to finish 2011 with 16) and provides protection for Ryan Howard in the lineup. More than anything, however, it’s Pence’s youthful exuberance and infectious energy that make him the perfect fit for this team and this city. I think his attitude is going to invigorate the other players on the team, too, and there’s not a single person in the clubhouse or the stands who won’t love the way he plays the game. That’s because Pence plays it the right way: hard, and with reckless abandon (he has a lot of Chase Utley in him in that regard). He always busts his hump nonstop, and it took one at-bat in a Phillies’ uniform for everyone to see what he’s all about. Pence hit a grounder up the middle and started hauling ass down the first base line, legs gyrating, arms flailing, head bobbing. It’s one of the more beautifully awkward sights you’ll ever see on a baseball field. The Pirates’ second baseman, Neil Walker, ranged to his right, backhanded the ball, and threw over to first as his momentum carried him toward left field. Pence, hustling the whole way, beat the throw by a good half-step. Umpire Angel Hernandez called him out anyway. Never mind the blatantly blown call (which was just mindbogglingly awful), we all knew immediately what we had in Hunter Pence.

There was a time earlier in July when I thought Ruben Amaro, despite Charlie Manuel’s constant pleas to get a right-handed bat, might just end up standing pat at the trade deadline because the cost to acquire a player like Pence would be prohibitive (I surmised Vance Worley or Domonic Brown would have to be part of any deal, in addition to Cosart and Singleton). In hindsight, that was a pretty foolish conclusion. This marks the third time in as many years as Phillies general manager that Amaro has made a major splash at the deadline. In 2009 it was Cliff Lee, last year it was Roy Oswalt, and now it’s Hunter Pence. So far, so good, as the team is 3-0 with Pence in the lineup — two of the games have been of the late-inning comeback variety. Now, that’s more like it.

Phillies Midseason Report

Here we are, 94 games into the season, with the Phillies sitting at 59-35. That’s the best record in the majors, but at the moment it only provides a 3.5 game cushion over the hard-charging Braves. As I said in the season preview, this race is going all the way down to the wire because the Braves will be there until the bitter end. With the second “half” of the season officially underway after taking two of three from the Mets over the weekend, let’s take a look at how we got here.

The Good: Pitching. As expected, the starting pitching has been the team’s backbone, and the bullpen has actually been a pleasant surprise. The Phillies rank second in baseball in ERA (3.12), first quality starts (62), and second in WHIP (1.18), while ranking seventh in BAA (.241). The starters’ collective ERA is 2.99 (first), while the bullpen’s is 3.45 (13th). 

The four-headed monster of a starting rotation has been whittled to three because of Roy Oswalt’s meddling back injury that will sideline him until at least August. Luckily, his cohorts of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels have been as advertised. Halladay is Halladay and Lee is Lee (despite walking more batters), but Hamels has been the most impressive of the three — save for his most recent start against the Mets — and could very well thwart Doc’s quest to repeat as the NL Cy Young Award winner. It won’t be long now before he gets his mega-contract with an average annual value of $20 million, and hopefully the Phillies are the team that gives it to him (there’s no justifiable reason to let Cole ever wear another uniform). And to the minority collection of ungrateful asshole fans in this city who doubted Hamels or simply chose to forget how good he is, on his behalf allow me to extend a hearty FUCK YOU.

Most impressive statistical accomplishment: Something tells me you remember Cliff Lee’s immaculate month of June, in which he put up the following numbers…

42 IP, 21 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0.21 ERA, Record: 5-0. You can’t even do that in a video game while playing on rookie mode. Completely insane. And he did all that despite a pedestrian 29/8 K/BB ratio. In addition to his pitching, how much fun has it been to watch Lee bat? Holy shit. No wonder he wanted to come back to the NL, he loves being able to hit and help his own cause. No joke, I was actually hoping Charlie would let him DH for a game in one of the interleague series.

I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention Vance Worley, who’s making himself into a legitimate major league starter. I love his two-seam fastball and the moxie with which he pitches. Worley’s mental makeup is remarkable and his mound presence is swagtastic. He believes he belongs at this level, and that kind of confidence is manifesting itself in his performances. While I’m still not sure if Worley projects as anything more than a #3 or #4 starter, I do like watching him pitch. Also, props to the much-maligned Kyle Kendrick, who has been one of the best #5 starters in baseball. Somehow.

As for the bullpen, where would this team be without the contributions of Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes? Those two young arms have saved the Phillies’ ass numerous times. Without them, it’s not at all a stretch to say we’re in second place behind Atlanta. For fuck’s sake, after Madson went on the DL, Charlie tabbed Bastardo, apparently the teams’ fourth-string closer, to take over the role. All he did was convert each of his first four save opportunities without giving up a single hit (and only one total baserunner via a walk). Bastardo’s stats right now are just silly and likely unsustainable (right?). He’ll come back down to earth at some point over the course of the rest of the season, which is something I’m expecting because of his workload. Bastardo has already pitched 33 innings so far, while his total innings pitched for his career coming into this season was 42.1. Still, right now… wow. With Madson set to come off the DL, Bastardo should return to his role as the setup man.

And Michael Stutes… well, what more can I say about the way ol’ Stutesy has performed up to this point? He’s another guy who exudes confidence and demonstrates a strong mound presence, despite his slight appearance. Stutes doesn’t care who he’s pitching against and isn’t intimidated by anything. Sweet hair, too, can’t forget about that.

The Bad: Offense. In essence, things have played out exactly as we expected. The offense has vacillated between struggling mightily to score runs and ripping the cover off the ball. That’s how it goes. However, the fact remains that the Phillies are a middling offensive team, at best. They rank 14th in baseball in runs scored (401), 20th in batting average (.249), 10th in on base percentage (.322), and 21st in slugging percentage (.380). Blech. Everyone aside from Shane Victorino — who’s putting up the best numbers of his career but has also made a few trips to the DL — is having a subpar year at the plate. I don’t care how many RBI Ryan Howard has, his OPS is .805, which ranks 55th in the majors. Please, go ahead and give me a good reason why I shouldn’t feel as though he’s trending downward as a hitter. But look on the bright side: That horrendous contract of his doesn’t even start until next season! Awesome. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Amaro during his tenure as general manager, it’s that he’s much better at making trades than he is at handing out contracts. Anyway, at least Chase Utley’s knee tendonitis doesn’t appear to be as troublesome an injury as so many, myself included, thought it would be. Then again, he’s also on pace to put up the lowest power numbers of his career and at the plate doesn’t resemble the player we’ve been accustomed to watching over the years.

We still don’t know what we have in Domonic Brown, but the raw skills are evident. Even though his long and loopy swing concerns me, when when he hits the ball… whoa. All the tools are there, but will the holes in his swing inhibit him from reaching his potential at the plate? We’ll see. I know there is a growing number of doubters out there, but, personally, I don’t think he’s far away from harnessing his talents and fulfilling the hype that has accompanied his ascent through the organization over the past few years.

The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away, and as much as Amaro says getting another bullpen pitcher is his main focus, you know he’s keeping his eyes peeled for a right handed hitter with some pop. The options that seem to be out there are as follows:

Hunter Pence (The most talked-about player on the market, aside from the last guy on this list, but the price tag will likely be prohibitive because I imagine any proposed deal will start with Domonic Brown/Vance Worley, before adding a prospect like Jarred Cosart, Jon Singleton, or Sebastian Valle — probably two of the three.)

Carlos Lee (Houston would literally pay a team to take on his contract; if El Caballo didn’t have another year left on that horrific deal, I just might be willing to give him a chance, especially because he wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects.)

Michael Cuddyer (Supposedly the Twins are reluctant to trade him, and if they continue to gain in the standings in the AL Central, he’ll remain with the team. If the Twins fall out of contention over the next two weeks, holding onto Cuddyer makes little to no sense, given his impending free agency at the end of the season.)

Reed Johnson (Having a career year, and while I highly doubt he continues his .915 OPS pace, he would cost significantly less than other more glamorous options and could end up being a low risk/high reward pickup.)

Ryan Ludwick (I’d take him, but I’m not giving up anything substantial.)

Josh Willingham (Again, a guy I’d definitely take a flyer on, but I wouldn’t give up a top prospect for him.)

Jeff Francoeur (Charlie likes him, and I wanted him in free agency; would the Royals deal him?)

Melky Cabrera (Having a career year and, despite how long he’s been around, is still very young — turns 27 in a few weeks.)

Marlon Byrd (It would be funny to reacquire him now that he’s made himself into a serviceable major leaguer.)

Carlos Beltran (Of course he’s on the market, but I see no scenario where the Mets trade him to us unless we severely overpay.)

As for bullpen arms… the name you hear the most is Heath Bell, but just like with Pence, the asking price might end up being too much. I don’t think Amaro will be acquiring anybody who gets fans excited. A few names to remember, however: Koji Uehara (having an incredible season), Jon Rauch, Brandon League, Rafael Betancourt, Huston Street, Sean Marshall, Randy Choate (lefty specialist allowing a meager .093 BAA to left-handed hitters), Mike Adams (I’d probably take him over Bell, honestly, if the price is right), even Joakim Soria (he’s looking more like the Soria of old over the past month and a half).

Let’s also remember that with the Phillies about $3 million away from the dreaded luxury tax threshold, making a transaction isn’t some forgone conclusion. Don’t be surprised if the team right now is the same one you see on August 1 after the non-waiver trade deadline passes.

Regardless of what happens, one thing is clear: This team will continue to be buoyed by its pitching. We can only hope the offense gives enough support along the way and certain players get hot at the right time (which is what happened with the Giants last season). Personally, I’d rather be able to bank on something other than flimsy, fragile hope.

I Owe Raul Ibanez an Apology

A temporary apology, at least. Ever since I wrote about starting Mayberry everyday (who, unless Ross Gload goes on the disabled list, is likely going to be optioned to Lehigh Valley when Victorino comes back in a few days) and Raul Ibanez being “done,” he has promptly gone on to become the Phillies’ most dangerous hitter and was en fuego for all of May. I guess he has a smidgen of gas left in the tank after all. Mayberry, meanwhile, got regular playing time, hit under .200 for the month, and showed why he’d be best utilized as a platoon/bench player. Oh well, at least we had a chance to get an extended look at him.

It all started earlier in the month — you know, when no one was hitting and the offense literally couldn’t score. Enter Ibanez, who, after going 0-4 against Atlanta on May 3rd to complete an unsightly 0-35 drought, had the following stat line 87 at bats into the season: .154/.209/.238 (.447 OPS). Yikes. Luckily for him, May 3rd marked the beginning of a three-game series with the Washington Nationals, a team Ibanez has absolutely destroyed since joining the Phillies as a free agent prior to the 2009 season. Playing the Nats always seems to ignite Raul, and something just clicks for him. He starts squaring up and getting around on fastballs, even hitting the occasional home run. All of a sudden, he no longer looks slow and completely off balance at the plate. Baseball’s funny like that, how a player can just get scorching hot for a period of time after looking so terrible. Perhaps Ibanez recognized something on tape and corrected a mechanical flaw in his swing. Whatever happened, it’s working. Inevitably, he’ll have another cold streak that tests your tolerance because he’s a streaky player by nature. For now, though, Ibanez is doing the heavy lifting on offense. Naturally, it helps that the lineup is no longer regularly populated with three or four minor leaguers, but that’s besides the point.

Anyway, in his 108 at bats in May, Ibanez had 34 hits and batted .315 with a .941 OPS (.339 OBP/.602 SLG). He also launched seven home runs and drove in 19, leading the team in both categories. It’s a good thing he got on such a roll at the plate because he’s a black hole of suck in left field. What’s worse, he throws like Johnny Damon. Just to give you an idea of how bad it had gotten for Raul, his blistering month of May only raised his triple slash line from 154/.209/.238 to .246/.296/.427, and his OPS from .447 to .723. So, essentially, he was able to make himself into a marginally effective player overall. I have a hard time believing Ibanez can keep up this kind of production, and even more trouble envisioning a scenario where he continues to stay this hot. But, hey, I’d love for him to prove me wrong again (aside from being a Phillie, he’s one of baseball’s genuinely good guys). If we’re being honest, I was actually hoping the Phillies would sign him during the 2008 offseason… just not to a three-year contract. Ibanez was brought here to do exactly what he’s done: bridge the gap until a prospect was ready to emerge.

Player Profile

Up next: Domonic Brown, who is starting to figure it out at the major league level.

An Ode to Chase Utley

Women want him, and men want to be him. That’s a scientific fact. Do I have a man crush on Chase Utley? You bet your sweet ass I do, and I’m unfailingly unapologetic about it, too. No, he himself isn’t the answer to all the problems confounding the Phillies’ putrid offense, but getting him back is certainly an encouraging step in the right direction, if only symbolically. In Philadelphia, the epitome of a “what have you done for me lately?” sports city, fans have a tendency to vilify players just as quickly as they fall in love with them. Utley is not exempt from this kind of treatment, and it enrages me to no end when I hear mouth breathing morons call in to sports talk radio nowadays to bash the greatest second baseman in team history. Old? Washed up? Damaged goods? Have some fucking respect. The guy is 32 and still very much in the prime of his career. This isn’t football or basketball, when a player is generally clearly on the decline as he traverses his early 30’s. Now, I’m not going to pretend the knee tendonitis that has forced Utley to miss nearly the first two months of the season shouldn’t be a cause for concern. We’re talking about a degenerative knee condition that is a direct result of how hard he’s played the game over the course of his career, and you have to wonder if he’s truly capable of playing any other way. As such, this could very well be the end of the Chase Utley who has spoiled us with his Hall of Fame-caliber play over the past seven years.

Regardless of what happens next, however, let’s not lose sight of what he’s meant to this franchise and this city. Without Chase Utley, Philadelphia would be still mired in a championship-less drought entering its 28th year. So maybe he inexplicably sails a throw over Ryan Howard’s head here and there during the playoffs. Shit happens. Nothing changes the fact that the fake-to-first-then-throw-home to nail Jason Bartlett at the plate in the top of the seventh inning in Game 5 of the 2008 World Series with the score tied 3-3 remains, for my money, the best baseball play I’ve ever witnessed. Utley then somehow managed to outdo himself, as he followed up his October performance with the best proclamation in the history of championship parades, uttering a phrase that will forever live on in the annals of Philadelphia sports.

If ever there has been an athlete who has embodied the spirit of this town and everything the natives hold dear, it’s Chase Cameron Utley. His cool, laid back southern California demeanor belies the intense, burning passion he has for the game of baseball and balls-to-the-wall style that has made him so beloved. How many players score from second base on a ground out to the pitcher? Pure hustle, desire, and sheer determination. Nobody works harder, and nobody cares more. Utley’s presence alone should inject life into an otherwise listless lineup that is approaching unprecedented futility. He is, after all, the heartbeat of this team, and his impact cannot be measured just by on-field performance. Make no mistake, this is still Chase Utley’s team, and its grit and resilience over the years reflects his identity as a baseball player. 

It all began a little over eight years ago. Contrary to popular lore, Utley did not hit a grand slam home run in his first major league at bat — which came during the home opener on April 4th, 2003, when he struck out. Rather, it was in his next at bat a few weeks later that he belted said salami for his first major league hit. I was sitting in my kitchen, watching the 13” relic (see: piece of shit) TV my parents bought in the 80’s. The home run was vintage Utley: A quick, compact swing that allowed the head of the bat to get out in front and connect with a pitch low and inside, resulting in a screaming line drive that roped over the right field wall. I still remember Harry Kalas shouting, “COULD IT BE?!”, followed by a formal welcoming of Utley to The Show as the sinewy 24-year old briskly raced around the bases like he was trying to stretch a double into a triple. There are certain times when you just get a good feeling about a player, when you know you’re watching something special. That’s how I felt at that exact moment. Besides, with a name like Chase Utley, how could he not be good at baseball?

Based on some less than rigorous research — because I’m blatantly neglecting my responsibilities here at work — I’ve unearthed the following statistical nuggets. In the history of modern baseball, only three second basemen have posted a .900+ OPS in five consecutive seasons: Rogers Hornsby, Jackie Robinson, and Chase Utley (Joe Morgan missed out on being in this club by .001 and .005 in the two bookending seasons). Pretty good company, I’d say. Furthermore, Utley is one of only two second basemen — the other being Jeff Kent — to record four consecutive 20+ home run, 100+ RBI seasons. And just for good measure, his career .894 OPS is second only to Hornsby (1.010 OPS). Unfortunately, the only thing keeping Utley from cementing his place as one of the game’s all-time best second basemen — at least from a hitting standpoint — is longevity, which can be attributed to the fact that he didn’t become a full-time player until he was 26 and has also been afflicted by various injuries. Even so, there’s no denying Utley put together a five-year stretch of production that rivals any other second baseman to ever play.

If, like me, you’ve been fortunate enough to watch Chase Utley develop into one of best power hitting second basemen in the history of Major League Baseball, then you also know you’ll probably never see another player of his ilk don a Phillies uniform. For that reason I say, just for once, drop the “what have you done for me lately?” shtick. Instead, appreciate what Utley has meant to your recent experience as a Phillies fan — he’s done more than enough already.

Welcome back, Chase.

Edit: This is my version of a Chase Utley love letter.

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Why John Mayberry, Jr. Needs to Start Everyday

Because there’s a lot of Jayson Werth in his game. You can see it when he gets on first base, steals second, then scores on a single, gracefully striding like a gazelle as he rounds third base and sprints for home. Tell me you weren’t having Werth flashbacks last night when John Mayberry, Jr. manufactured the Phillies’ only run of the game by doing precisely what I mentioned in the previous sentence. Let’s also not forget to mention that he stole second base on Yadier fucking Molina, who just happens be the best defensive catcher in baseball (never mind that Mayberry was out by a millisecond and the ump blew the call, I just love him for having the balls to do it because of how wretched the offense has been). Mayberry is long, athletic, smooth, and has some pop with the bat. There’s always been a lot of raw talent and intrigue to his game, ever since he was acquired from the Texas Rangers for Greg Golson in November of 2008. Even before that Mayberry showed a lot of promise when he was a star at Stanford, so much so that he was taken with the 19th overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft. Now he’s starting to put it all together a bit, and we’re getting a glimpse of the kind of player he can be in the major leagues. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Mayberry is the next Jayson Werth — he just has a lot of similar qualities to the departed wolfman, and that would seem to bode well for his potential.

Now, to temper any excitement: John Mayberry, Jr. had a career .788 OPS (.258/.330/.458) in 2,543 minor league at bats, so it’s not like he was going Ryan Howard all over everybody’s ass and had cemented himself as a superstar prospect who could no longer be kept out of the big leagues. Like Werth when he was fighting for a starting job with the Phillies, Mayberry needs to prove he can hit right-handed pitching better. However, in 113 major league at bats — which isn’t anywhere near a good enough sample size — he sports an .861 OPS. It’s strange, he just strikes me as the kind of player who could be better in the majors than he was in the minors. Mayberry has the tools (including a plus arm in the outfield), really improved his plate discipline, and is in the physical prime of his career at age 27. Like I said in the season preview, it’s now or never for him. Besides, he can’t possibly be worse than the garbage we’re rolling out there on a nightly basis. 

Listen, Charlie, we know what Raul Ibanez can do, and it’s nothing short of be pretty terrible. The guy’s cooked. Play him against the Nationals, that’s it. I’m willing to tolerate the Ben Francisco treat a little more, only because I haven’t been watching his skills precipitously deteriorate for over a year. Hopefully Domonic Brown can soon — once healthy — assume the starting role in right field, or at the very least platoon with Francisco. As for the immediate future, I firmly believe the Phillies’ best chance for success is to let John Mayberry, Jr. play on a regular basis. Hopefully he can continue to earn his keep and help an otherwise anemic offense, which is in the process of putting up another dog shit performance as I write this post.

Edit: Danys Baez really can’t be allowed to pitch anymore. Ever.

Edit #2: Yeah, Mayberry was going to get an article written about him sooner or later.

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